拉丁美洲 2023 年展望：下降，但未出局
了解潜力并评估该地区 2023 年的经济和政治前景。
我们预计 2023 年将是整合的一年，历史上最令人期待的衰退将在今年下半年袭击美国。然而，即使全球增长前景恶化，并非所有地区都会同样下降。
从宏观角度来看，尽管高通胀和中央银行在一年中的大部分时间都处于紧缩模式，但拉丁美洲的增长在 2022 年出人意料地上升。在几乎所有资产类别中，拉丁美洲在新兴市场和发达市场的表现都优于其他地区。正如我们在2023 年全球展望中指出的那样，尽管宏观前景应该会恶化，但该地区可能继续成为投资者的（相对）亮点。
一方面，增长预计将大幅放缓。从通货膨胀的角度来看，这将是一个好消息，但通货膨胀率仍将高于大多数中央银行的舒适区，直到 2024 年为止。此外，由于经济增长未能恢复到大流行前的水平，政治和社会压力可能导致财政恶化社会不平等变得更加严重。
尽管上述前景黯淡，但拉丁美洲在整个新兴市场中脱颖而出，因为该地区的主要中央银行应开始放松货币政策，从而减轻全球经济放缓对经济增长的打击。此外，随着中国经济在 COVID 封锁后重新开放，商品价格的支撑也可能抵消部分影响。近岸外包等结构性转变也应支持外国直接投资，从而有助于控制经常账户。
重点关注六个最大的拉美国家 (LA6)——巴西、墨西哥、阿根廷、哥伦比亚、智利和秘鲁——在本文件中，我们利用我们的2023 年全球展望：看到潜力并评估该地区的经济和政治前景2023 年，以及它可能在一些关键资产类别中提供的投资机会。
我们最坚定的建议仍然是传统的固定收益，并通过投资美国中小型股和防御性行业（如医疗保健）从估值角度利用错位，另类投资为投资组合增加多元化优势。美国仍然是我们的首选地区，因为它更具防御性，但随着周期的推进，新兴市场将变得重要，而拉丁美洲应该是这些对话的关键部分。
鉴于相对较高的实际利率，该地区的外汇应该（相对）更好地定位以在美元走软的环境中跑赢大盘。在信贷方面，拉美企业比大多数美国高收益发行人更适合应对全球经济衰退，但鉴于后者估值低迷，我们继续看好 DM IG。最后，在股票方面，随着增长差异扩大，美元见顶可能会推动资金流入新兴市场。鉴于目前的估值倍数和相关的宏观基本面，我们认为巴西和墨西哥可以利用这一举措。
要点
拉美经济增长势必大幅放缓，拖累通胀在 2023 年下降，尽管 2024 年之前通胀仍高于官方目标。
利率很可能在 2023 年初达到峰值，但到今年年底仍保持在两位数的低位。
在经济增长放缓、社会支出增加、政治压力和借贷成本上升的情况下，2023 年财政状况可能会恶化。
近岸和大宗商品敞口，加上各资产类别的估值具有吸引力，应该会继续支持拉美金融资产。
Latin America Outlook 2023: Down, not out
Dec 14, 2022
See the potential and take stock of the region’s economic and political prospects for 2023.
We expect 2023 to be a year of consolidation, with the most anticipated recession in history hitting the US by the second half of the year. However, even as the global growth outlook deteriorates, not all regions will fall equally.
From a macro perspective, LatAm growth surprised to the upside in 2022, despite high inflation and central banks in tightening mode for most of the year. Pretty much across asset classes, LatAm outperformed other regions, both in EM and DM. While the macro outlook should deteriorate, the region can continue to be a (relative) bright spot for investors, as we noted in our global 2023 outlook.
On one end, growth is expected to slow significantly. This would be welcome news from an inflationary standpoint, yet inflation will remain above most Central Banks´ comfort zones, until well into 2024. Furthermore, there is risk of fiscal deterioration driven by political and social pressures as growth fails recover to pre-pandemic levels and social inequality becomes even deeper.
Despite the bleak outlook depicted above, LatAm stands out from across EM as major Central Banks in the region should start to ease monetary policy and thus softening the blow to growth stemming from a global slowdown. Furthermore, supportive commodity prices could also offset some of the impact, as China´s economy reopens post COVID lockdowns. Structural shifts such as nearshoring should also support FDI and hence help keep current accounts in check.
With a focus on the six largest LatAm countries (LA6)—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru— in this document we leverage our Global Outlook 2023: See the potential and take stock of the region’s economic and political prospects for 2023, as well as of investment opportunities that it may offer in some key asset classes.
Our highest conviction recommendations remain traditional fixed income and capitalizing on dislocations from a valuation angle through gaining exposure to US small & mid caps and defensive sectors such as healthcare, with alternatives adding diversification benefits to portfolios. The US remains our preferred region given its more defensive profile, yet as the cycle progresses, EM will pick up relevance and LatAm should be key part of those conversations.
Given relatively high real rates, FX in the region should be (relatively) better positioned to outperform in an environment of weaker USD. On the credit side, LatAm corporates are better suited to manage a global recession than most US HY issuers, yet we continue to favor DM IG given depressed valuations for the latter. Finally, on the equity side, the advent of the USD peak could drive flows into EM as growth differentials widen. Given current valuation multiples and relative macro fundamentals, we believe Brazil and Mexico could capitalize on the move.
Key takeaways
LatAm economic growth is poised to slow considerably, dragging inflation down in 2023 despite it remaining above official targets until 2024.
Interest rates are apt to peak in early 2023, yet stay in low double digits through the end of the year.
Fiscal deterioration is in the cards for 2023 amid lower economic growth, increased social spending, political pressure, and higher borrowing costs.
Nearshoring and commodity exposure, coupled with attractive valuations across asset classes, should remain supportive of LatAm financial assets.