在中国近期进一步向外资开放资产管理和证券行业之后，摩根大通公司同意收购在中国一家合资共同基金管理公司中当地合作伙伴的全部持股，从而全资持股该公司。
据彭博社报道，摩根大通周五发布声明，将收购上海国际信托有限公司持有的上投摩根基金管理有限公司49%的股份。摩根大通没有透露购买价格。
中国数以万亿美元的资产管理市场本周进一步开放，摩根大通是众多公司中率先寻求完全控股在中国共同基金业务的资产管理公司。从4月1日开始，外国公司可以首次成立独资的资产管理公司和投资银行，或者寻求收购当地合作伙伴的持股。
摩根资产管理公司的董事长贝特曼（Paul Bateman）在一份声明中表示，“随着我们在这个至关重要的市场上推进在岸业务，我们期待继续满足中国和国际投资者不断变化的需求。”
中国国家外汇管理局资本项目管理司司长叶海生表示，近期改进外债管理措施，客观上旨在为境内主体跨境融资提供较大的便利；而作为融资主体的企业，需理性对待，绝不可盲目地借外债加杠杆。
《中国外汇》杂志刊登署名叶海生的文章并指出，当前受新冠肺炎疫情全球扩散的影响，国际市场动荡加剧。由于疫情发展具有不确定性，市场情绪的影响还会持续，故在当前市场环境下，企业开展跨境融资面临的汇率风险急剧增加。
“3月份以来，随着全球市场各类资产价格的暴跌，不少机构认为是‘抄底’的好机会，要求监管机构放松资金流出限制（如放宽QDII额度），这种想法未免太过天真和理想化。”他在文章中说。
叶海生并称，经济向好适当加杠杆可以获得较高收益；但在当前形势下，加杠杆无异于“自杀”。实际上，去年以来已有不少机构在境外投资中尝到了加杠杆的“苦果”。
市场主体要强化外债风险管控，尤其是外债借入环节的汇率风险管理，防范于前，坚持汇率中性原则。在当前市场波动较大的情况下，要充分考虑汇率变化的经济风险，并增对加汇率变化的敏感性分析，利用交叉货币利率掉期工具或组合期权等工具进行风险管理。
上月中国人民银行和国家外汇管理局发布通知称，将全口径跨境融资宏观审慎调节参数由1上调至1.25，政策调整后跨境融资风险加权余额上限相应提高。随后国家外管局又将外债便利化试点范围扩大至上海（自由贸易试验区）、湖北（自由贸易试验区及武汉东湖新技术开发区）、广东及深圳（粤港澳大湾区）等省市。
叶海生指出，上述外债政策调整，不会引发外债规模的大幅上升，也不会加剧中国的外债风险。同时，在具体操作中，相关管理部门也会严格把关。
“房地产企业、政府融资平台等受宏观调控的行业和企业，不能享受跨境融资宏观审慎管理政策，”他在文章中提到，“对享受便利化额度的试点企业，会严把资质关，严格规范操作，加强定期监测和事后监管。”
此前中国国家外汇管理局公布，截至2019年末中国全口径（含本外币）外债余额为20,573亿美元，较9月末增加78亿美元。外管局认为，中国外债风险总体可控。
新冠疫情莫非要让日本重温通缩噩梦？
日本经济磕磕绊绊地从长期通缩走出来数年之后，可能又要重新回到物价不断下跌的老路上来，新冠疫情或将拖累经济陷入深度低迷，决策者为此苦思各种选项。
经济若重回通缩，将是对首相安倍晋三的沉重打击，他认为日本经济走出停滞，是2012年12月实施的“安倍经济学”刺激政策所取得的一项关键成就。
而分析师认为，通缩威胁是真真切切的，近期油价急挫压制通胀，新冠疫情也重创了已经处于衰退边缘的经济。
第一生命经济研究所经济分析师新家义贵预期，核心消费者物价将从4月开始下降，临近年底时降幅还会加快。
“对通胀的直接打击将来自油价的下跌。但其他商品物价可能也会因需求疲弱而下滑，因疫情损及薪资增长和就业。”他说道。
“很明显疫情将导致严重的经济衰退，这对物价前景不利。”
路透调查显示，预计今年第二季和第三季核心消费者物价指数同比可能只会上升0.1%，10-12月当季下滑0.4%。
日本与通缩之间长期而棘手的关系始于1990年代的银行业危机和经济衰退。
持续数十年的疲弱需求和物价下滑，使得难以改变的消费者预期更加根深蒂固，让企业不可能上调价格，并迫使许多公司忍痛打折，哪怕在经济增长后期也是如此。
降价就意味着公司用于薪资和设备方面的资金减少，进而打击家庭消费。
日本的消费者物价是在2013年初才开始增长，此前首相安倍晋三采取提振信心和就业的激进刺激政策，重振了经济。日本2月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)较上年同期的涨幅达到0.6%。
但现在疫情损及薪资、让消费降温，并迫使零售商考虑裁员，有将这些政策的益处化为乌有的风险。
分析师指出，由于日本公司被迫取消在4月新财年开始时的宴会活动，已经造成牛肉和鲜花等商品价格下滑。
日本制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)也显示出通缩的初步迹象。3月投入物价出现了自2016年以来的首次下降，而由于企业将原材料成本下降因素传导至客户，产出物价创三年半来的最大降幅。
政策制定者们直到现在还在争论什么时候正式宣布取得对抗通缩战争的胜利，而现在他们私下里却在担心物价恢复持续下跌的风险。
“我们的担心是日本可能会重新陷入通缩。我们不能指望工资增长，因为现在的问题是如何防止失业，”一位政府官员表示。
“消费者物价可能会开始下降。这还不确定，但存在风险。”
该观点得到一位熟悉央行想法的人士的呼应，他警告称企业和家庭的信心有可能减弱。由于未获得公开发言的授权，两位官员都要求匿名。
与全球金融危机期间不同，现在日本决策者的政策工具箱几乎是空空如也。
首相安倍周三表示，政府将实施“必要和充分的”经济政策，以确保日本不会再度进入通缩。
但分析人士怀疑，日本能否在不令原本紧张的财政状况雪上加霜的情况下，拿出一个与其他主要经济体推出的支出计划规模相当的方案。
目前正在制定的一项方案涉及额外发行1,490亿美元的债券，可能侧重于为现金拮据的企业提供直接支持，而不是以支出来提振需求。
日本央行承诺在3月加速购买风险资产，但已经没有多少空间来扩大规模本就庞大的债券购买计划。
加深负利率也备受争议，因此举可能损害金融机构的利润。
“我们可能会看到重返通缩，尤其是如果疫情迫使东京封城，”法国巴黎银行首席日本经济分析师河野龙太郎说。
“但可以动用的宏观经济政策工具正在接近极限。”
The losses for the wider global aviation industry, excluding airlines, from the coronavirus pandemic could exceed US$2 trillion this year, with millions of jobs at risk in Asia-Pacific alone, according to Zheng Lei, founder and president of the Institute for Aviation Research, an independent think tank.
“Airlines are the key to the whole supply chain, if they become problematic, other parts of the supply chain will be affected,” said Zheng Lei, who is also the head of aviation department at Swinburne University of Technology in Australia.
“As to impact on the global aviation sector, it has already surpassed US$200 billion. This is only for airlines, not including [the] impact on airports, retailers inside airports and on-the-ground workers. Its bigger impact should be more than tenfold of that on other sectors in the economy, such as to tourism, and shocks to export and import trade.”
According to recent estimates by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger revenue losses for airlines in the Asia-Pacific this year are expected to reach around US$88 billion and US$252 billion globally.
The aviation ecosystem is vast and supports many industries. It includes in-flight meal providers, ground service companies, transport, storage and maintenance providers, employing millions in free-duty shops, retail and catering, ground staff, shuttle bus drivers and security personnel in airports across the world.
The aviation sector and industries associated with it have been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which was first identified in China. The world’s second largest economy and its outbound travellers have been a major driver of the global tourism industry. They spend US$130 billion in 2018, up 13 per cent from a year earlier, according to the China Tourism Academy. But as the disease spread rapidly to more than 200 countries worldwide, governments imposed sweeping travel restrictions, forcing airlines to ground most of their fleet.
Stocks in Asia and Europe suffered fresh losses on Monday due to unrelenting pressure from the worsening global spread of Covid-19. The virus has already infected more than 724,000 people worldwide and caused 34,017 deaths.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped almost four percent at the opening, Hong Kong’s Hang Sang Index slid 1.9 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite fell about 1.4 percent.
All the European stocks also tanked in early trading, with shares in France off the most. The CAC 40 was down 2.6 percent while London’s FTSE 100 nosedived two percent. Germany’s DAX was lower by 1.5 percent and the pan-European Stoxx 600 tumbled 2.2 percent.
The downbeat tone to the start of the week suggests “that the false rally in a super bear market won’t last for too long, as investors continue to evaluate deteriorating economic conditions and an escalating pandemic situation,” Margaret Yang, an analyst with CMC Markets, said, as cited by CNN.
The ongoing pandemic threatens, among other things, jobs, corporate earnings and the travel industry, despite massive bailout pledges by governments across the globe. Last week US jobless claims hit a historic record level, surging to over three million. The country now has more coronavirus cases than any other in the world, with more than 142,000 infections and 2,489 deaths as of Monday.
The coronavirus pandemic has driven the global economy into a downturn that will require massive funding to help developing nations, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said Friday.
“It is clear that we have entered a recession” that will be worse than in 2009 following the global financial crisis, she said in an online press briefing.
With the worldwide economic “sudden stop,” Georgieva said the fund’s estimate “for the overall financial needs of emerging markets is $2.5 trillion.”
But she warned that estimate “is on the lower end.” Governments in emerging markets, which have suffered an exodus of capital of more than $83 billion in recent weeks, can cover much of that, but “clearly the domestic resources are insufficient” and many already have high debt loads.
Over 80 countries, mostly of low incomes, have already have requested emergency aid from the International Monetary Fund, she said.
“We do know that their own reserves and domestic resources will not be sufficient,” Georgieva said, adding that the fund is aiming to beef up its response “to do more, do it better, do it faster than ever before.”
The IMF chief spoke to reporters following a virtual meeting with the Washington-based lender’s steering committee, when she officially requested a increase in the fund’s fast-deploying emergency facilities from their current level of around $50 billion.
She also welcomed the $2.2 trillion economic package approved by the US Senate, saying “it is absolutely necessary to cushion the world’s largest economy against an abrupt drop the economic activities.”
The apex bank of the country has announced a raft of measure to shield the economy from the pandemic and has decided to slash the repo rate by 75 bps to 4.4 per cent, reverse repo rate by 90 bps and cash reserve ratio by 100 bps to 3 per cent from March 28 for one year.
In the wake of the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19, which is wreaking havoc across the world, many countries have been put under lockdown and brought to a screeching halt. India is no exception and has been put under a 21-day lockdown, which is causing a huge loss to the economy. To boost the economy, Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman has announced a Rs 1.07 lakh crore relief package for the poor on March 26.
“The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to advance its meeting due on April 3. It was decided for March 24, 25, 27 and undertook the careful evaluation”, said RBI governor Shaktikanta Das while addressing a press conference today. Das added further: “The MPC voted for a sizeable reduction in repo rate and maintaining accommodative stance. There was some difference in quantum of reduction and MPC voted by 4:2 majorities to reduce policy repo rate by 75 bps to 4.4 per cent.”
“This would not necessarily promote growth but avert a collapse, so it is a big positive. The implications of these measures are quite clear that includes no freeze in the credit market. The banks get some at low cost and lose some (lower lending rate, the pressure to lend),” said Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stockbrokers.
However Das, while addressing the media last time, announced a few steps to ensure liquidity in the market and said that he was not ruling out any rate cut. But seeing the extraordinary state of affairs, the RBI has to take this action immediately. Even the banks around the world have cut their interest rates amid the economic challenges unleashed by COVID-19. A few days ago the US Fed slashed interest rates and brought it down to roughly zero. In South Korea, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps.
Das also explained that these MPC decisions and RBI’s other actions must be seen as a comprehensive package with force multipliers. He mentioned that large parts of the world will slip into recession. He announced that all banks and lending institutions may allow a three-month moratorium on all loans.
The head of the International Monetary Fund said Friday it is clear that the global economy has now entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the 2009 downturn. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the 189-nation lending agency was forecasting a recovery in 2021, saying it could be a “sizable rebound.” But she said this would only occur if nations succeed in containing the coronavirus and limiting the economic damage.
“A key concern about a long-lasting impact of the sudden stop of the world economy is the risk of a wave of bankruptcies and layoffs that not only can undermine the recovery but erode the fabric of our societies,” she told reporters at a news conference following a telephone conference with finance officials from the 24 nations that make up the IMF’s policy-setting panel.
She said the IMF was updating its economic outlook now and it would be released in a few weeks, allowing the agency more time to assess the economic impacts of the virus.
Asked if the United States was now in recession, she noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had said Thursday that America ” may well be in a recession.” She said she believed not only the United States but many other advanced economies and a number of developing countries had already entered downturns.
Georgieva said lower income countries were being hit hard by the spreading coronavirus, with 81 nations now seeking support from an IMF emergency financing program being used to provide aid.
She announced that Kyrgyzstan would receive the first IMF support package of $120.9 million to deal with adverse effects of the virus.
She repeated a pledge that the IMF stood ready to make all $1 trillion of its lending resources available to countries being hit by the virus.
“We have seen an extraordinary spike in requests for IMF emergency financing,” Georgieva said. “We are being asked by our members to do more, do it better and do it faster than ever before.”
She said to meet the increased demand she would seek to double the emergency financing program and simplify the procedures countries will have to go through to obtain IMF support. She said the IMF was also looking for ways to expand its current lending facilities to provide more help to countries.
Georgieva said the IMF also wanted to find ways to provide more debt relief to the poorest countries.
She said she planned to discuss these issues with the IMF’s executive board with the goal of putting together a package of reforms that could be presented at the IMF’s spring meetings in mid-April. Because of the virus, the spring meetings of both the IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank, will be virtual this year instead of meetings in Washington.
“IMF efforts that start to offer debt relief to the poorest countries and that increase financing to help prevent a global financial crisis are really positive and needed steps,” said Eric LeCompte, the executive director Jubilee USA, a group that campaigns for increased assistance for low-income countries.
Bank Indonesia (BI) is ensuring the liquidity in the country’s financial system would be sufficient to meet the people’s needs in the coming months as massive capital outflows seen in the past several days have begun to decline.
BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said in Jakarta on Thursday that there is at least Rp 450 trillion (US$27.77 billion) in cash stored in banks and ATMs in Indonesia, which would be sufficient for the next six months.
“We have been working closely with banks in the last two weeks to boost their liquidity,” Perry told reporters on Thursday during an increased requirement for cash in the past several days to finance efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. “We want to assure the public that we have sufficient stocks of cash.”
Perry also said the central bank saw signs of easing capital outflows, driven by the announcement of a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus by the United States and to-be-announced stimulus by the European Union.
“The stimulus package has reduced pressure on a global scale and resulted in better sentiments for Indonesia’s financial markets,” Perry said, adding the central bank has since recorded a lessening capital outflow.
The rupiah appreciated as much as 1.8 percent against the US dollar to Rp 16,205 on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), meanwhile, jumped the most since 1999 by as much as 11 percent on Thursday’s trading, the best performer in the region, despite other Asian indices recording declines during the day.
The COVID-19 crisis is much different than Asia’s crisis in 1998 and the global financial crisis in 2008 as banks remain in a healthy condition despite weakening business activities and volatile financial markets, Perry said.
“We want to make sure that the situation is different than the crisis in 1998 and in 2008 as the banking industry remains healthy with low levels of non-performing loans and good financial market conditions,” he added.
Because of the pandemic, the central bank also plans to implement shorter trading hours and a shorter settlement period for transactions starting next week.
As of Tuesday, BI had injected liquidity of up to Rp 300 trillion into the financial markets and banks to help support the country’s crashing currency as foreign investors sold off Indonesian assets.
The central bank recorded a Rp 125.2 trillion capital outflow from government bonds, the stock market and BI certificates so far this year. Foreign investors sold Rp 112 trillion worth of government bonds and Rp 9.2 trillion worth of Indonesian shares, with most of the sell-offs recorded this month.
瑞士在线金融和交易服务商瑞讯银行（Swissquote Bank）最新的评论摘要：
全球股市沉浸盛宴中
美国国会通过了瞩目期待的金额高达2万亿美元的财政救助计划，这是美国史上最大规模的救助计划，从而对抗冠状病毒引致的经济放缓，同时终止全球范围的股市大出血。我们还不清楚这么庞大的资金究竟会用在具体什么地方，不过这轮救助计划肯定囊括一项惠及广大群体的援助方案，惠及各大规模企业，向家庭直接派发支票，推出失业保险并推迟纳税时间，从而帮助美国人民在此轮惊涛骇浪中渡过难关并将经济损失降低到最低水平。
那本轮救助计划是应对病毒的一剂经济预防针吗？现在下定论还为时过早，不过市场对此表现得欢天喜地。
目前最大的问题是：这轮乐观的市场情绪会继续持续下去吗？究竟会持续多久呢？
这轮经济刺激计划带来的主要问题之一就是，它比较容易让人上瘾。刺激力度越大，投资者要求的就越多。
不过，投资者目前明白，为了改善投资者的情绪，美国政府和国会很可能已经超出了可以动用的最大限度的救助能力。目前特朗普和鲍威尔手中很可能没更多的牌可以打了。因此股市可能已经轻触市场苦苦等待的顶部了。公司债券和抵押债券也应开始在这节点承压了，因为大家都在指望着美国政府和美联储了，然而美国政府和美联储来指望谁呢？
须密切关注股价波幅及美元流入
为了评估股市反弹的程度，我们要密切关注以下两件事：股价的波动幅度和美元的流入问题。
第一，每日波动最好不要在5%至10%的幅度，无论是上涨还是下跌。资产价格跳涨10%和大跌10%的性质一样，都值得令人担忧。因此，要稳定股市价格，每日波动幅度最好在1%至3%之间，从而可以在短期至中期恢复投资者的信心。
然后，市场买入美元的速度在放缓，暗示投资者套现速度在放缓，同时在开始将手头积攒的大堆现金重返股市。
需要指出的是，我们目前还几乎无法预判接下来数周或数月股市会何去何从。随着全球性经济衰退若隐若现，这其实几乎是板上钉钉的事了，至少在今年上半年，受冠状病毒影响的经济数据显然会每天刺激着投资者的神经。这样看来，昨天公布的3月预估采购经理人指数对大多数经济体来讲都是灾难性的，其中服务业采购经理人指数会随着社会活动的完全停滞而遭受史无前例的重击，因为发达国家服务业占国民经济的比重是压倒性的。
不过从长期来看，股市总会从最艰难的股灾中恢复过来并逐渐走强，至少股价会在金融危机过后反弹。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best one-day percentage gain in nearly 90 years, soaring 2,093 points by the time markets closed on Tuesday as investors braced for Congress to finally pass the coronavirus stimulus bill.
The increase represented the index’s largest one-day surge since 1933, and was matched by similarly spectacular recoveries in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The S&P was up 9.4 percent, its best rally since October 2008, and the Nasdaq leapt 8.1 percent, the best day it has seen in weeks.
Stocks surged in anticipation of legislators reaching an agreement on the $2.5 trillion coronavirus stimulus package. The gains were led by Boeing, whose shares rallied more than 20 percent; the ailing aircraft manufacturer is expected to receive a bailout in the legislation, and Chevron, which led the Dow’s recovery with a gain of 22 percent.
The coronavirus stimulus package has failed to clear the Senate twice since Sunday after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi raised an objection to the bipartisan bill at the eleventh hour, attempting to replace it with her party’s own, much longer version of the legislation. After Republicans balked at the inclusion of a laundry-list of partisan add-ons to the must-pass bill, President Donald Trump warned he wouldn’t pass the fattened new version and the two parties returned to the drawing board. On Tuesday morning, however, leaders from both parties hinted they were hours away from a mutually-satisfactory compromise, and the size of the bill has reportedly ballooned to $2.5 trillion.
Trump emphasized on Tuesday that he was determined to reopen the coronavirus-stricken economy as soon as possible, floating Easter Sunday – less than a month away – as a goal date. Markets have been spiraling downward for weeks as government-mandated shutdowns have forced businesses to close and lay off workers, but the glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel – even just a rumored one – appears to have calmed skittish investors somewhat.
The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) announced further relief measures today which will immediately benefit 231 licensed entities, 30 registered audit firms and 9663 licensed individuals.
SC said these measures, which aim to ease the cost burden of capital market participants, complement the wider relief effort under the Economic Stimulus Package 2020 (ESP 2020) announced by the government on February 27, 2020.
“The unprecedented scale of challenges we are facing today demands measured responses that offer relief in the short term and support for longer term recovery,” said SC chairman Datuk Syed Zaid Albar.
“The SC is constantly monitoring the situation and weighing all available options. We would like to assure all market participants that the capital markets will continue to function to support the Malaysian economy,” he added.
The new relief measures are, waiver of the SC’s annual licensing fees for 2020 on the core regulated activity of all Capital Markets Services Licence (CMSL) entities with profit before tax of RM5 million or less during financial year 2019.
A qualifying CMSL entity who has already made the payment prior to this announcement will be offered a credit to offset next year’s licensing fees.
Secondly, waiver of the annual licensing fees for the Year 2020 for all individual CMSL holders and Capital Markets Services Representative’s Licence (CMSRL) holders.
A qualifying CMSRL holder who has already made the payment prior to this announcement will be offered a credit to offset next year’s licensing fees.
Another measure is the reduction of the minimum Continuing Professional Education (CPE) requirements to 10 CPE points from the current 20 CPE points effective July 1, 2020 for a period of 12 months for all CMSRL holders and Employees of Registered Persons (ERPs).
Further, reduction of the minimum training requirements to three days from the current five days effective July 1, 2020 for a period of 12 months for Trading Representatives and Marketing Representatives and finally, a one-off training subsidy for existing registered firms of Audit Oversight Board (AOB) with less than 10 audit partners, up to RM30,000 per firm for Approved Training Programmes conducted by the Malaysian Institute of Certified Public Accountants (MICPA).
Earlier, the government had, through ESP2020, announced that both the SC and Bursa Malaysia have agreed to waive all listing related fees for a period of 12 months for companies with market capitalisation of less than RM500 million seeking listing on the Main Market, as well as for companies seeking to list on the LEAP and ACE Markets.
SC said further details of these measures will be announced by Bursa Malaysia separately.
“The SC is closely monitoring ongoing developments at both the global and domestic fronts and will take all necessary measures, as appropriate, to support an orderly market,” it said.
In a joint statement last week, the SC and Bursa Malaysia reiterated the need for markets to remain open to ensure continued and reliable access to the Malaysian capital market, which is vital for immediate and long-term market confidence.
Wall Street’s main indices are down after opening on Monday for the first ever all-electronic trading session, which is aimed at protecting New York Stock Exchange employees from the coronavirus.
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were down around four percent as of 16:00 GMT. The Nasdaq Composite, an index comprised of America’s top technology companies, was down over two percent.
Global markets are down despite the promise by the US Federal Reserve to pump in the cash “amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”
The US regulator has warned that the country’s economy faces major trouble as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, and has pledged to take measures to minimize its impact. The Fed has promised to unveil a direct lending program for small- and medium-sized American businesses, which are projected to be hardest hit by the pandemic. In addition, the Fed will also help students with their education loans.
“While the Fed’s actions are an enormous help, the only way the markets are going to find sustainable improvement is when the economy is allowed to come back to life, or at least there is a real path in place for how that is going to happen,” said Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group in a note seen by CNBC.
孙正义率领的日本软银集团（SBG）3月23日发布消息称，决定最多对4万5000亿日元的资产实施出售和现金化。中国阿里巴巴集团和日本国内通信子公司软银等投资对象的上市股票被认为将成为主要对象。筹集的资金将用于最多2万亿日元的自有股票回购和负债压缩，借此加强财务状况。
软银集团作为投资公司持有的股票的价值超过27万亿日元。另一方面，软银集团自身的股票总市值截至19日约为6万亿日元，与持股价值相比大幅低估。为改善这种市场的低估，将利用持有资产，进行大胆的股票回购和负债压缩。
软银集团表示交易将在今后4个季度实施。筹集的4.5万亿日元资金将用于最多2万亿日元的股票回购。这种自有股票回购将在13日宣布的上限5000亿日元的回购基础上实施。此外，将剩余资金用于负债的偿还、公司债的买入、充当现金存款。
软银集团的会长兼社长孙正义针对此次的举措评论称，“是本公司历史上最大的自有股票回购，还将有助于创历史新高的现金存款等的增加，（相关举措）建立在对本公司业务的毫不动摇的自信之上”。针对意图，孙正义透露称，除了改善软银集团股价的估值之外，通过包括买入公司债在内的负债削减，力争提高信用评级。
在下午2点发布消息后，东京股票市场上的软银集团股价上涨。较前一日上涨500日元（上涨19％），涨至3187日元，以涨停水平结束交易。
The overall price tag of the fiscal stimulus package in the US could be around one trillion dollars. With record budget deficits and its national debt at $23 trillion, is the US hastening toward a fiscal reckoning?
The Trump administration wants to send direct cash payments to Americans in the coming weeks to help them cope with the economic ravages of coronavirus, part of a massive relief package developed between the White House and Capitol Hill. The overall price tag of the package is more than $1 trillion, making it one of the largest federal emergency fiscal packages ever assembled.
Whether this is a temporary downturn or a full-blown recession, two things will happen. Tax revenues will fall as people’s income drops, and Federal spending will rise. The result will be higher deficits.
The US debt is soaring, and the country has kicked the can down the road so many times on entitlement spending. It may be entering into unprecedented and dangerous territory, and hastening a reckoning it has been trying to avoid.
The statistics are astonishing. Last year, the official budget deficit – how much more money the government spends than it takes in – reached a trillion. The national debt went up $1.2 trillion to $23 trillion. According to the New York Fed’s quarterly household credit and debt report, household debt in the fourth quarter of 2019 rose 4.4 percent. Student debt increased to $1.51 trillion at the end of 2018. Auto loans rose to $1.3 trillion, while credit card debt rose to a record $930 billion.
While America heaves under this burden of debt, there is another historical measure at play: a rising debt-to-GDP ratio. This compares how much a country owes to how much it produces. In 2012, the percentage of debt to GDP passed 100 percent, for the first time since the Second World War, back when the country was basically one giant factory pumping out armaments and supplies. In 2019 the debt-to-GDP ratio was 107 percent. This means that, at the moment, the debt is greater than the economy itself.
Those are the figures heading into a national emergency requiring massive amounts of Federal spending. In the last couple of weeks, in a state of anxiety and gloom, the country has effectively gone into shutdown, impacting businesses of all sizes. The country will now be adding on a further trillion dollars in relief, with the economy expected to contract by as much as five percent this coming quarter. With plummeting tax revenues, and massive emergency spending, the debt-to-GDP ratio will likely go further above 100 percent.
What makes this scary is that it is possible, were there to be a protracted recession due to coronavirus, that the debt-to-GDP ratio could inch closer to or even go beyond the record level seen just after the Second World War, when it topped 121 percent. That the US might get nearer to such a level puts the country in a potentially dangerous situation, where it just has too much debt on its back, and the debt and interest become crushing. Last year, the country paid $600 billion just on debt interest, nearly 9 percent of its total spending.
Bank Indonesia (BI) has bought about Rp 163 trillion (US$10.1 billion) worth of government bonds to stabilize the country’s financial market amid foreign investors’ selling spree over COVID-19 fears.
In addition to the bonds purchase, the central bank also intervened in the foreign exchange spot market and domestic non-deliverables forward to ease pressures on the rupiah.
“We are focused on maintaining confidence, ensuring the market mechanism to work properly and maintain liquidity in US dollars and the rupiah,” BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said after attending a limited Cabinet meeting on Friday.
BI data recorded Rp 105.1 trillion in capital outflow as of Thursday, of which foreign investors dumped Rp 92.8 trillion worth of government bonds and Rp 8.3 trillion in stocks.
The rupiah has weakened more than 15 percent against the this year to Rp 16,172 per dollar as of 3:14 p.m. in Jakarta, a level unseen since the 1998 crisis. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), meanwhile, recorded more than Rp 10 trillion in foreign net sell so far this year as it lost around 33 percent of its value.
“The majority of capital flight occurred in March in line with escalating COVID-19 infections in developing countries. This has resulted in investors dumping their assets and converting them into dollars,” Perry went on to say.
The central bank pledged to work together with the government and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) to develop further measures to stabilize the country’s financial market. Perry said the current situation was different compared to the 1998 and 2008 financial crises as the it was faced by financial markets and investors around the globe.
“Investors and market players dumped all their assets in stocks, bonds and gold and cashed them into dollars. All countries experienced the same thing, including Indonesia,” he added.
Indonesia has recorded 308 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 25 deaths as of Thursday. Globally, the pneumonia-like illness has infected more than 244,000 people and claimed at least 10,000 lives.
The central bank slashed its benchmark interest rate, the BI seven-day reverse repo rate, by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent following another cut last month to help spur the weakening economy.
BI revised down on Thursday Indonesia’s economic growth projection to between 4.2 percent and 4.6 percent this year, which would be the lowest levels since 2005. That compares with last month’s projection of between 5 and 5.4 percent.
It also announced measures to calm the market rout and stabilize the rupiah, including by intensifying bond-buying in the secondary market and cutting banks’ reserve ratio.
US stocks closed with moderate gains after a rollercoaster week. However, the Covid-19 coronavirus has continued to hammer investor confidence, and Bank of America smells a recession.
The Dow Jones gained 0.96 percent on Thursday, closing at just over 20,000 points. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 2.3 percent, while the S&P 500 finished up 0.47 percent.
These gains, however, could partly be driven by speculation. According to regulatory filings, billionaire investors like Warren Buffet and Carlos Slim have all spent hundreds of millions of dollars snapping up cheap stocks lately, a move that could have inspired optimism in smaller investors. Likewise, the uptick could represent the market correcting itself, as the finite duration of the coronavirus pandemic becomes apparent.
“Financial markets, in particular stock exchanges, tend to view uncertainty more negatively than bad news. For that reason, they almost always overestimate the impact of bad news and correct that overshot as the facts surrounding a situation become clearer,” Peter C. Earle, research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, previously told RT.
Though few in government will publicly use the dreaded ‘R’ word just yet, Bank of America chief economist, Michelle Meyer, circulated a note to her clients earlier on Thursday “declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession,” CNBC reported.
“Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed and confidence depressed,” the letter continued, with Meyer adding that she expects the US economy to contract by 12 percent in the second quarter of the year, and the unemployment rate to nearly double.
Meyer called on the government to throw Wall Street more money to avert the coming disaster. “There should be no upper bound for the size of the stimulus,” she wrote.
However, none of the array of measures promised by the Trump administration in recent days have managed to halt the stock market’s tailspin. Washington’s trillion-dollar stimulus announcement earlier this week did nothing to stave off the drop, and the market gains of the Trump presidency were officially wiped out on Wednesday when the Dow closed below 20,000 for the first time since January 2017.
Only after the Federal Reserve opened up liquidity lines with other central banks on Thursday did markets respond positively.
Those positive results came after a week of day-to-day swings. Promises of government assistance and a series of decisive speeches by President Trump triggered momentary rallies on Wall Street, but overall, the trend pointed down.
A global economic recession is now all but guaranteed in 2020, with analysts worldwide continuing to slash their already grim forecasts as the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic outside China results in unprecedented containment measures and a rising number of businesses in danger of bankruptcy.
The moves by central banks around the world to cut their interest rates to record lows and by governments to pump huge amounts of money into their economies – including the new proposal in the United States to spend around US$1 trillion to bail out troubled businesses and provide a cash handout to every American – have come too late, according to analysts.
The question now becomes how deep the downturn will be, and how long it will last, with worst-case scenarios seeing weak growth continuing into 2021.
Analysts have already cut their global growth forecasts for this year to between 1 to 2 per cent, attributing the certainty of a recession to the shutdown of key economies in Europe and the US, worse than expected Chinese economic activity in the first quarter and the negative impact Covid-19 is having on “all aspects of life”.
The International Monetary Fund defines a recession as an annual global growth rate below 2.5 per cent. The global economy grew only 2.9 per cent last year.
In the past 48 hours, a growing number of analysts have made further adjustments to their forecasts to make a clear call for recession in coming months.
“Since our last update, which was on March 3, the spread of the coronavirus has accelerated, and its economic effect has worsened sharply,” ratings house S&P Global said on Tuesday. “The long-awaited initial figures from China for January and February were much worse than feared.
Britain, in announcing its £330 billion (US$400 billion) stimulus package on Tuesday, said lockdowns could last up to 18 months until a vaccine becomes available, while the Australian government said quarantines could continue for six months. Photo: APBritain, in announcing its £330 billion (US$400 billion) stimulus package on Tuesday, said lockdowns could last up to 18 months until a vaccine becomes available, while the Australian government said quarantines could continue for six months. Photo: AP
Britain, in announcing its £330 billion (US$400 billion) stimulus package on Tuesday, said lockdowns could last up to 18 months until a vaccine becomes available, while the Australian government said quarantines could continue for six months. Photo: AP
A global economic recession is now all but guaranteed in 2020, with analysts worldwide continuing to slash their already grim forecasts as the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic outside China results in unprecedented containment measures and a rising number of businesses in danger of bankruptcy.
The moves by central banks around the world to cut their interest rates to record lows and by governments to pump huge amounts of money into their economies – including the new proposal in the United States to spend around US$1 trillion to bail out troubled businesses and provide a cash handout to every American – have come too late, according to analysts.
The question now becomes how deep the downturn will be, and how long it will last, with worst-case scenarios seeing weak growth continuing into 2021.
Analysts have already cut their global growth forecasts for this year to between 1 to 2 per cent, attributing the certainty of a recession to the shutdown of key economies in Europe and the US, worse than expected Chinese economic activity in the first quarter and the negative impact Covid-19 is having on “all aspects of life”.
Coronavirus: Which countries and regions in the world are most at risk in the Covid-19 pandemic?
The International Monetary Fund defines a recession as an annual global growth rate below 2.5 per cent. The global economy grew only 2.9 per cent last year.
In the past 48 hours, a growing number of analysts have made further adjustments to their forecasts to make a clear call for recession in coming months.
“Since our last update, which was on March 3, the spread of the coronavirus has accelerated, and its economic effect has worsened sharply,” ratings house S&P Global said on Tuesday. “The long-awaited initial figures from China for January and February were much worse than feared.
The increasing restrictions on public gatherings and travel plans, the downturn in Europe is likely to be deeper than previously expected
Keith Wade
“The spread of the virus, which the World Health Organisation declared to be a pandemic on March 11, appears to be stabilising in much of Asia.
“However, the increasing restrictions on person-to-person contact in Europe and the US have sent markets reeling as risk-aversion rises and views on economic activity, earnings, and credit quality deteriorate sharply.”
Despite recently downgrading its global growth expectation to 2.3 per cent from 2.6 per cent in the first week of March, investment firm Schroders trimmed its outlook again to 2 per cent on Wednesday, projecting an imminent recession following surprising national lockdowns and border closures in Europe.
The Bank of Japan on Monday unveiled a series of emergency monetary policy measures to shore up the world’s third-largest economy, as the coronavirus pandemic threatens a global recession.
In a meeting brought forward by two days, the BoJ said it would double its annual capacity to purchase exchange-traded funds and Japan real estate investment funds, the latest global central bank to take emergency action.
The moves sent Japanese markets whipsawing, with the Nikkei-225 initially surging two percent but then falling rapidly back into the red as traders digested the statement.
The bank said it had decided unanimously to “actively” purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) and J-REITs (investment funds tied to Japanese real estate) with an annual upper limit of 12 trillion yen (US$112 billion) and 180 billion yen respectively.
Seiichi Suzuki, senior market analyst at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute, said: “What’s big is 12 trillion yen of ETFs buying, which means one trillion yen each month. What investor could ignore this?”
“It was quite a drastic step,” Suzuki told AFP. “Those who wanted to buy jumped on the occasion.”
Previously, the bank was buying a maximum of six trillion yen of ETFs and 90 billion yen of J-REITs per year.
The BoJ said it would also introduce a new operation to provide loans against corporate debt and raised its annual limit for corporate bond purchases by one trillion yen to 4.2 trillion yen.
But it left its main interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1 percent and also kept its upper limit for purchasing government bonds at 80 trillion yen.
“There have been significant uncertainties over the consequences of the outbreak of COVID-19 and over the size and persistence of their impact on domestic and overseas economies,” said the bank in a statement.
The move followed emergency measures before Asian markets opened from the US Federal Reserve to shore up confidence and keep the financial sector running, including slashing the key interest rate to virtually zero.
The Fed made its second emergency rate cut in less than two weeks, lowering the benchmark borrowing rate to a range of 0-0.25 percent, where it was during the 2008 global financial crisis.
The Japanese economy was tottering even before the coronavirus struck, with growing fears of a recession. “Japan’s economic activity is likely to remain weak for the time being, mainly affected by the outbreak of COVID-19,” the BoJ said.
The country’s gross domestic product for the October-December quarter contracted by 1.8 percent, with consumer spending hit by a hike in consumption tax last October from eight percent to 10 percent.
Concerns are growing that consumption will be hit even harder as people put off big purchases due to coronavirus fears, with the pandemic also predicted to have a huge impact on exports.
On top of this looms the possibility that the Olympic Games, scheduled to open on July 24 in Tokyo, could be postponed or cancelled.
Estimates vary on what that could cost Japan, which is spending an estimated 1.35 trillion yen on Tokyo 2020. Any change to the Olympic schedule would have a huge impact on tourism — Japan was banking on 40 million visitors in 2020.
Economists at research firm Nomura already predict a 0.7-percent contraction in GDP for the 2020 calendar year, but warn that could be up to 1.5 percent if the Games are cancelled.
Monday’s measures “will contribute to supporting economic and financial activities”, said the bank.
在美国街头出现物资抢购潮，华尔街发生恐慌性抛售后，美国联邦储备委员会(美联储/FED)周日再度紧急降息，在新型冠状病毒疫情于全球快速蔓延之际，为美国经济提供支撑。
美联储将利率调降至0-0.25%的目标区间。美联储已于3月3日在紧急会议上降息50个基点，当时也是2008年金融危机以来首度紧急降息。
美国总统特朗普称降息行动“太棒了”，是“非常好的消息”。
随着疫情扩散，美国民众正面临新的现实，商店货架上连卫生纸都被抢购一空、学校停课，也禁止举行大型集会。
白宫呼吁美国民众不要因疫情扩散而囤积物资，向民众保证食品杂货的供应链仍然强健。
白宫说，特朗普周日与30位企业高管举行电话会议，其中包括亚马逊(AMZN.O)的全食超市 WFM.O、塔吉特(TGT.N)、开市客(好市多, Costco)(COST.O)和沃尔玛(WMT.N)。
特朗普的医生周六表示，总统的病毒检测结果为阴性。为了减缓疫情蔓延，特朗普也将欧洲访美禁令扩大至英国与爱尔兰。
在一些主要机场，返美旅客及入境接受筛查的旅客排起长龙，且出现大面积延误。联邦官员已部署更多工作人员，特朗普并呼吁大家保持耐心。
特朗普说，机场检查“正在尽可能地加快，但小心谨慎非常重要。”
基于有限的检测结果，美国官员统计了近3,000个病例及65个死亡病例。全球已有逾162,000个感染病例，逾6千人死亡。
众议院周六通过援助议案，将提供免费检测及带薪病假。
与意大利、法国和西班牙实施全国封锁相比，美国迄今为止遏制疫情的举措相对温和。俄亥俄州和伊利诺伊州周日下令关闭所有酒吧及餐馆，不过仍准许外带和外送业务。
“我认为美国人应做好准备，他们呆在家里的时间要比现在长很多，”美国顶级传染病专家Anthony Fauci说在NBC的“Meet the Press”节目说，年长者和有基础疾病的人必须特别当心。
Fauci预计当前不会采取国内旅行限制，但警告疫情在转好之前将变得更糟。
在被问及他是否认为美国当局应采取14天封锁措施阻止病毒传播时，Fauci表示，“我希望我们能尽可能做到这点。我认为我们真的应该非常积极地行动，哪怕因为过度反应受到批评。”
Fauci称，在美国关闭餐馆的想法“现在看来可能很过分，但所有选项都在考虑当中。”他说自己不会去餐馆。
“如果看起来是反应过度，那你很可能正在做正确的事，”Fauci称。
根据统计公司Comscore的数据，尽管美国人并没被禁止去看电影，但周末北美票房收入跌至逾20年最低水平。
纽约学校关闭
纽约州州长库莫(Andrew Cuomo)宣布，从周一开始，纽约市、韦斯切斯特、拿索和萨福克的学校将关闭。他还呼吁特朗普调动美国陆军工程兵团增设更多医院床位。
“关于你对纽约采取的行动我们存在分歧，这可以以后再谈。现在，让我们美国人团结起来。时间紧迫，”库莫周日在纽约时报的社论中写到。
库莫曾因为没有像其他州一样关闭学校而备受批评，因为纽约有大量新冠感染病例。
纽约市审计长Scott Stringer建议进行全市封锁。“我们无法照常开展业务。这事关我们所有人。这关系到保护我们最珍贵的东西，”他在一份声明中称。
在ABC电视台的“This Week”节目上，Fauci承认，如果美国的病例急剧增长，国内的13,000台呼吸机可能不够。“我们尽力要做的是确保不会出现最糟糕情境。”
美联储还有其他一系列紧急贷款安排，以及2007-2009年金融危机期间使用的其他工具，如果需要，美联储可以动用这些工具来避免信贷市场在危机期间冻结。
“这些事件背后的故事是，美联储总是会在需要时提供流动性，”布鲁金斯学会高级经济研究员、前美联储金融稳定政策和研究室主任梁奈利(Nellie Liang)表示。
美联储可以在现有授权下自行采取一些措施，而其他措施可能需要与财政部合作或国会扩大对其的授权。
以下是一些工具，如果信贷状况明显恶化，这些工具可以进行调整或重新启用以支持市场：
贴现窗口
美联储的最后借贷工具很少被使用，因为银行担心从窗口借贷会使他们显得虚弱。但梁奈利表示，决策者可以开始提醒银行，“贴现窗口已经打开，请使用它”。美联储官员还可以下调利率或将贷款期限从一天延长至30天或90天，来提高信贷吸引力。
定期标售工具(TAF)
美联储在2007年推出定期标售工具(TAF)，向那些犹犹豫豫不愿转向贴现窗口的银行提供贷款。受贷款发放方式影响，TAF少了贴现窗口相关的一些劣势。金融企业必须进行竞标，这意味着他们支付的利率将被视为由市场决定，而不是一种罚款率。
而且相关资金三天后才发放，说明以这种方式借款的银行并不急需现金。
“这说明你还没有绝望，”梁奈利说。美联储在2010年3月结束TAF。
商业票据融资便利(CPFF)
在金融危机时期，美联储最接近向非金融企业直接提供借贷的方式就是建立CPFF。
商业票据市场是诸多企业短期融资的主要来源。在2008年市场冻结时，美联储建立了CPFF，藉由购买期限三个月的高评级、有资产支持的商业票据以帮助重新开启资金市场。此一融资便利在2010年关闭。
部分指标显示融资市场可能已经出现压力。最高评级非金融借款人与低一级借款人之间的利差本月明显变阔，目前处于近两年来最阔程度。
要判断当前的压力是否会增加到让美联储依据《联邦储备法》“不寻常与紧急情况”条款重新开启这类融资便利的程度，目前还言之过早。这项法律允许美联储借款给企业与个人。
央行流动性互换
美联储与其他五家主要央行(加拿大央行、欧洲央行、英国央行、日本央行和瑞士央行)签有常备协议，因此这些央行能够在资金吃紧时向各自金融机构提供美元。这些协议在2011年从临时安排转为常备安排。
美联储可能与这五大央行之外的其他央行达成协议，在必要时增加美元供应。
还有其他工具吗？
牛津经济研究院的首席美国金融分析师Kathy Bostjancic说，美联储还可创设更适合当前市况的新工具。“美联储的许多工具是针对当时困扰金融体系的具体问题而设立的，”Bostjancic说。
“这表明美联储可以创新。”
The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) today announced that it will reduce interest rates by 0.5 percent, effective April 1.
According to the directive, the minimum bank deposit rate will be lowered to 7.5pc from 8pc, while the maximum lending rate will be lowered to 12.5pc for collateralised loans and 15.5pc for non-collateralised loans, from 13pc and 16pc, respectively.
The move comes shortly after the World Health Organization defined the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic on March 12, triggering a collapse in global markets.
Central banks around the world have also eased rates to stimulate their economies. On March 11, the Bank of England announced an emergency rate cut by half a percentage point to 0.25pc.
The week before, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by half a percentage point to a range between 1pc to 1.25pc, its deepest cut since 2008.
In Myanmar, the tourism, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors have been hardest hit as a result of the pandemic.
There have been no reported cases of COVID-19 in the country so far, but U Zaw Oo, an economist from the Centre of Economic and Social Development, warned that a weaker Chinese economy could slow foreign direct investments into Myanmar and delay China’s spending on key projects under its Belt and Road Initiative. These include the Muse cross border trade zone, China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone and New Yangon City.
U Than Lwin senior consultant from Kanbawza Bank, said: “This is the right time to decrease the bank interest rate and drive the economy. The process of easing interest rates is very quick overseas and central banks are quick to respond to the needs of their economies. We need to reduce the bank’s interest rates in order to revitalise businesses in Myanmar.”
The CBM has long been under pressure to cut rates to more attractive levels to stimulate growth, but its officials have been hesitant to do so to keep the minimum deposit rate at a higher level than inflation, as this encourages savings.
According to the CBM, the annual rate of inflation is now 8.8pc.
“冠状病毒这一黑天鹅的登场，仅仅是让市场注意到了影响更为严重的灰犀牛存在的契机”
如今市场警惕的“灰犀牛”有3头。
第1头是经济衰退的风险。回顾过去，2019年夏季出现了被视为经济衰退前兆的美国长短期利率倒挂，但市场的动揺仅仅是暂时的。股价不久就开始反弹，美国股市直到新冠病毒冲击加强之前，连日创出历史新高。
但是，如果考虑到经济衰退的美国债券市场的预期是可靠的、股价犯了错，那么被推高至历史性高位的美国股市的调整就将难以避免。由于此次股价下跌，此前上升至约18倍的美国股市的PER（市盈率）被拉低。
第2头灰犀牛是央行的货币宽松政策的极限。
3月3日，美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）不等17～18日的美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，就启动了0.5％的紧急降息。
但市场认为降息难以阻止冠状病毒导致的需求和供给的下滑，以股价下跌作出回应。结果，美联储一下子陷入窘境。美国摩根士丹利预测月内降息0.5％，4月进一步降息0.25％。届时，在发达国家中几乎唯一超过1％的美国基准利率也将降至零附近，只要不采取负利率政策，美联储的降息余地将消失。
第3头灰犀牛则是超低利率多年来造成的企业和国家债务泡沫破裂这一风险。
市场已认识到这种风险的存在，但认为只要央行维持宽松政策，企业的债务偿还就不会出问题。但是，9日的原油价格暴跌令市场认识到这种认识的天真。
油价走低将波及企业的债务问题，原因是美国页岩相关领域等评级较低的美国能源企业此前发行低评级债，导致债务膨胀。受9日的原油价格暴跌影响，在美国公司债市场，低评级债的收益率迅速上升。鉴于此，美国股市的跌幅也随之扩大。
不过，SMBC日兴证券的首席日本股票策略分析师圷正嗣表示，与2008年的雷曼危机时相比，“虽然美国的低评级债的收益率上升，但水平本身至今仍受到压制”。
此外，2008年金融机构大量买入美国次贷的证券化商品和低评级公司债，其价格下跌直接导致了金融动荡。
但是，此次出于对雷曼危机之际的反思，金融当局加强监管和监视，金融机构几乎并未涉足这种高风险的贷款。就算信用市场多少出现混乱，也不易导致金融动荡。圷正嗣认为“现在正在发生的新冠冲击仅停留在波及金融动荡的紧要关头”，这显而易见。
此前市场视而不见的3头“灰犀牛”分别将在多大程度上发狂，现阶段仍难以预料。在能看透之际，股价或许也将构筑大底。
The Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak will add $100 billion in credit losses to banks in the Asia-Pacific region this year with Chinese lenders bearing the brunt of the damage, according to S&P Global Inc.
“Some activity will be lost forever, ” Shaun Roache, S&P’s Asia-Pacific chief economist, wrote in a note on Tuesday. “We estimate an income loss of about $211 billion, which will blow a hole in balance sheets across the region.”
The ability of Asian lenders to weather the coronavirus outbreak, which now has claimed more than 3,900 lives worldwide, has larger implications for the global financial system. Asia accounts for a bigger share of pretax banking profits than any other region, according to a report from McKinsey & Co.
The Covid-19 crisis will likely exert sharp, short-term pressure on Chinese banks and almost a quarter of the ratings and outlooks on the Chinese property sector may come under pressure, S&P said in the report.
“China’s regulatory response so far has been to use the banking system to cushion the economic impact of the epidemic, and provide financing to entities crucial to medical support and containment of the virus, ” S&P credit analyst Harry Hu said. “Banks may need to sacrifice near-term commercial interests, straining institutions already facing capital pressure.”
While Beijing has asked banks to step up with support, it has also acted to mitigate the chaos. Authorities are now allowing the nation’s lenders to delay recognizing bad loans from smaller businesses, giving temporary reprieve to trillions of yuan of debt. Regulators also told lenders not to downgrade loans with missed payments or report delinquencies to the country’s centralized credit-scoring system before the end of June, according to the statement.
S&P said given the relaxed recognition of bad loans, reported non-performing loan ratios for China’s banks could “moderately” rise to 2.2% this year, up from 1.86% at the end of 2019. The questionable loan ratio could peak at as much as 11.9% in the aftermath of the epidemic, S&P said.
Property transactions in China may remain on hiatus for the coming weeks and construction is also largely paused. Leverage and profitability may deteriorate in the next one to two years, denting credit profiles in the sector, S&P said.
Foreign banks are also feeling the heat. HSBC Holdings Plc, which generated half its 2019 revenue in Asia, said in the most extreme scenario, in which the virus continues into the second half of 2020, it could see $600 million in additional loan losses.
Fitch Ratings said on Monday that operating environment remains difficult for India’s banks in line with its negative outlook for the sector despite some indications of an improvement in the macroeconomic outlook.
Senior Director Duncan Innes Ker said Fitch expects India’s economic growth to accelerate to 5.6 per cent in the financial year ending March 2021 (FY21) from 4.6 per cent in FY20.
“But asset quality at the banks is likely to remain under pressure for some time. This in part reflects exposure — both direct and indirect — to stresses among non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs),” he said.
“We believe that the NBFI sector has yet to turn a corner even though fund-raising by a number of NBFIs during the first two months of 2020 points to a slightly improved funding environment,” said Ker in a statement.
The authorities have sought to provide support through regulatory forbearance. The Reserve Bank of India announced on February 6 an extension of the one-time restructuring scheme for micro-enterprises and SMEs, and relaxation in asset classifications for certain real estate projects.
However, there is a risk that this approach could perpetuate moral hazard and weaken transparency over asset quality.
The government has allocated 10 billion dollars for capital injection into banks in FY20 but this will go mainly towards bridging regulatory capital gaps, providing for ageing impaired loans and absorbing the costs of merging 10 state banks into four by April.
“Indian banks may require significant additional equity beyond this by FY21 to support loan growth, cover non-performing loans and build buffers over Basel III minimum standards,” said Ker.
Raising this may be challenging, given banks’ limited ability to issue fresh capital which puts the onus on government to address shortfalls.
“Although we anticipate that macroeconomic conditions will improve in FY21, any setbacks for the economy could increase asset-quality strains among Indian banks, particularly if they cause pressures in the NBFI sector to escalate into a broader crisis,” said Ker.
India so far appears relatively insulated from the economic fallout from the ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak, but the virus has highlighted potential downside risks to our economic outlook, he said.
标普全球评级周二表示，预计新冠疫情将导致亚太区银行业增加1,000亿美元的信用成本，中国的银行业首当其冲，预计全行业总不良贷款率升至约为6.6%的峰值。
标普新闻稿称，基于标普修正后的2020年中国GDP将增长4.8%的预测假设，预计中国商业银行的全行业总不良贷款率将升至峰值约为6.6%。如果出现该种情形，则拨备覆盖率或将从2019年4季度的186%下降至52%。
标普全球评级信用分析师胡旸瑞表示，中国监管层截至目前的应对措施是利用银行系统来对冲疫情对经济的影响，以及向对保障医疗支持和抑制病毒至关重要的实体提供融资支持。
“银行可能需要牺牲短期商业利益，此前已面临资本压力的金融机构将因此进一步承压。”胡旸瑞表示。
标普新闻稿称，已将2020年亚太区经济增速预测下调了0.8个百分点至4.0%，为2009年以来最低，且大幅低于过去10年6%的平均增长率。
标普预计，第三季度亚太区经济会出现U型复苏，亚太区到2021年年中的就业和产出将恢复到不发生新冠疫情情形下该有的水平。
标普全球评级的亚太区首席经济学家Shaun Roache表示，一些经济活动将永远失去不会重新补上；预估相应的收入损失约为2,110亿美元，将对亚太区的资产负债表产生较大影响。
其中，备受市场关注的中国房地产行业，依旧难见转机。
标普预计，未来几周中国的房地产交易可能继续停滞，因为销售中心依然关闭或几乎无人造访。房地产建设也基本暂停，可能会导致交付日期和收入确认延后。在此情形下，房地产商未来1至2年的杠杆水平和盈利能力可能会弱化，进而削弱行业的信用状况。疫情持续的时间越长，房地产业越难从所受到干扰中恢复。
标普全球评级信用分析师叶翱行表示，房地产销售下降将削弱房地产开发商的流动性，因为销售收入仍是他们的最大和最重要的资金来源。
“一些已处于“CCC”评级组别，或者信用评级低且展望负面的公司，在未来几个月可能将面临流动性问题。”叶翱行称。
Asian banks are bracing for a rough ride in the coming six months as the coronavirus epidemic disrupts businesses across the region, likely prompting a spike in bad loans and ultimately dealing a blow to their bottom lines.
Lenders from DBS, Singapore’s biggest bank, to HSBC, the largest of three currency-issuing banks in Hong Kong, have warned in the past two weeks that they will have to set aside additional provisions for loan losses in the first quarter – a risk they say is short term and manageable.
China’s biggest banks are not scheduled to update their guidance for 2020 until next month, but credit ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has forecast that the peak questionable loan ratio for China’s 285 trillion yuan (US$40.5 trillion) banking sector “may almost double” in a worst-case scenario.
“We have also seen it can take years to restore standards in [non-performing loan] recognition, and in the quality of the financial statements, once such standards are loosened,” S&P analyst Ryan Tsang said in a research note. “We see a risk that companies may exploit relaxed standards to drag out repayments for years.”
HSBC, which counts Hong Kong as its largest market and has made a big bet on growth in the Greater Bay Area, said last week it expects about US$600 million of provisions for additional loan losses if the coronavirus outbreak drags on into the second half of the year – its worst-case scenario.
“There will be revenue impact, which will become progressively more acute, if the coronavirus was to continue beyond the next month to six weeks,” Ewan Stevenson, the HSBC chief financial officer, said on a conference call on February 18. “We think that the Q1 impact, as we sit here today, is probably rangebound in the order of about US$200 million to US$500 million relative to our previous planning assumptions.”
DBS said it expects credit costs – the amount set aside for bad loans – to increase by four to five basis points for the year.
With its latest restructuring, HSBC is seeking to better tap into China’s growing wealth both at home and abroad by combining its private bank with its wealth management and retail banking businesses, according to the global head of the newly merged business.
Charlie Nunn, the chief executive of HSBC’s new wealth and personal banking unit, said the combined business can become a “real powerhouse” in the wealth space with the goal of increasing revenue by “double digits”. The biggest of Hong Kong’s currency issuing banks, HSBC is placing even greater focus on Asia as part of a reshaping under interim CEO Noel Quinn that is expected to include US$4.5 billion in annual cost reductions and as many as 35,000 job cuts.
“We want to deliver on the growth that we’ve been achieving, grow faster and be able to do more for our customers at a very simple level and then have a combined business that now really enabled us to compete at the top of the wealth franchise and grow and capture some market share,” Nunn told .
The combined wealth business has US$1.4 trillion in assets under management, with nearly half of those assets in Asia. Revenue from Asia in the wealth business increased by 12 per cent to US$5.7 billion last year.
The latest strategy update, announced last month, is the third reorganisation for HSBC in a decade as Quinn tries to improve its profitability and win the top job at the bank. John Flint, the former CEO, was ousted in August after just 18 months in the job.
It comes as HSBC, Europe’s largest banks by assets, and other lenders are struggling to navigate historically low interest rates worldwide, slowing global growth and rising protectionism.
Hong Kong, the bank’s largest market, has been hit hard by months of anti-government protests and the coronavirus epidemic, which has infected more than 86,000 people worldwide. The city’s economy fell into a technical recession last year and is expected to contract further this year.
“We view the end-state business plan targets as ambitious and credit-positive if achieved,” Alessandro Roccati, senior vice-president in Moody’s Investor Service’s financial institutions group, said in a research note. “However, factors beyond management’s control such as weaker growth, the low rate environment, US-China trade tensions, social unrest in Hong Kong and the duration and ultimate magnitude of the coronavirus epidemic may present greater challenges for the plan than presently anticipated.”
受新型冠状病毒全球感染扩大的影响，在金融市场，投资资金正在远离风险资产。认为将对世界经济构成打击的警惕感加强，投资者对风险敬而远之。美国10年期国债的收益率持续创出历史最低记录，再次出现低于3个月债收益率的“利率倒挂”。而在大宗商品市场，原油大跌。美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）暗示再次降息，各国已开始展开政策总动员。不过，在疫情仍在扩大的背景下，能在多大程度上给资金萎缩踩下刹车仍是未知数。
显示全球股市整体波动的“MSCI全球基准指数(ACWI)”在一周（2月24～28日）内下跌11％。一下子抹平了2019年10月以来的上涨。美国道琼斯30种工业股平均指数截至28日连续7天下跌，一周跌幅达到3583点，创出历史新高。出现达到雷曼危机之后的2008年10月（1874点）近2倍的创纪录股市下跌。特斯拉一周下跌逾25％，以股价高估明显的“成长股”为中心，投资资金迅速撤出。
日经平均指数一周下跌2243点，跌幅创出雷曼危机时以来的最大。在德国和希腊等欧洲国家，股价下跌也在扩大。
资金的避险态度明显。如果给主要投资资产的一周涨跌比率排出名次，跌幅首位是原油。纽约原油期货跌至每桶约45美元，在1周里下跌16％，创出1年零2个月的新低。日本乐天证券的大宗商品分析师吉田哲指出，“由于股价大跌导致企业的设备投资和个人消费放缓，作为原材料的原油的需求将来有可能受到打击”。
低评级企业的公司债（高收益债券）无法兑付的风险被意识到，投资者已开始撤走资金。美国洲际交易所（ICE）统计显示，美国高收益债券与美国国债的收益率差28日达到5.21％，在1周内扩大1.38个百分点。突破5％，是自美联储主席鲍威尔为消除经济衰退风险而暗示停止加息的2019年1月4日以来，时隔约1年首次。
美联储统计显示，美国企业的公司债与贷款的债务余额截至2019年9月约为16万亿美元，增至历史新高。如果经济恶化，财务脆弱的企业的倒闭增加这一风险将随之提高。
在信用市场，警惕感也在扩大。在预测企业信用等级的基础上交易的“信用违约互换（CDS）”市场，美国通用汽车（GM）等的信用违约互换保证金率上升。出现汽车销售放缓的风险。
与此同时，还出现资金撤出被视为安全的资产、加快持有现金的趋势。黄金在一周里下跌约5％。因股票等其他风险资产暴跌而遭受损失的投资者正试图抛售处于高点的资产，以防止进一步的损失。
另一方面，资金流向了以美国国债为代表的安全资产。由于追求安全资产的投资者的买入和降息预期叠加，美国的10年债收益率28日降至1.11％（价格上升），创出历史最低。
债券市场的走势暗示出经济萧条的明显。在美国，10年期债收益率低于3个月债（1.29％），再次出现被视为经济衰退前兆的“利率倒挂”。
另一方面，资金回归安全资产地位此前出现动摇的日元。在28日的美国市场，一度达到1美元兑107.4～107.6日元。
นายรณดล นุ่มนนท์ รองผู้ว่าการ ด้านเสถียรภาพสถาบันการเงิน ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย (ธปท.) เปิดเผยว่า จากการติดตามสถานการณ์ต่างๆ รวมทั้งการแพร่ระบาดของโรคติดเชื้อไวรัสโควิด-19 ที่มีแนวโน้มลุกลามและส่งผลกระทบรุนแรงในวงกว้างต่อธุรกิจและประชาชนทั่วไป จึงได้ร่วมกับสถาบันการเงิน กำหนดมาตรการช่วยเหลือเพิ่มเติมแก่ลูกหนี้ธุรกิจทุกประเภทและครัวเรือนที่ได้รับผลกระทบจากเหตุการณ์ดังกล่าวในเชิงรุก
โดยเน้นการให้ความช่วยเหลือด้านสภาพคล่องและเร่งปรับโครงสร้างหนี้ อาทิ ให้เงินทุนหมุนเวียนเพิ่ม พักชำระหนี้เป็นการชั่วคราว ขยายระยะเวลาการชำระหนี้ ลดดอกเบี้ยและค่าธรรมเนียม ผ่อนชำระขั้นต่ำบัตรเครดิตได้ต่ำกว่าร้อยละ 10 เพิ่มวงเงินชั่วคราวสำหรับสินเชื่อส่วนบุคคล เพื่อช่วยให้ลูกหนี้สามารถผ่านพ้นช่วงวิกฤตินี้ไปได้ โดยกำหนดเป็นมาตรการชั่วคราวระยะเวลา 2 ปี ระหว่าง 1 มกราคม 2563 ถึง 31 ธันวาคม 2564
ทั้งนี้เพื่อให้สถาบันการเงินช่วยเหลือด้านสภาพคล่องและปรับโครงสร้างหนี้ให้แก่ลูกหนี้ได้อย่างทั่วถึงและทันท่วงที ธปท. จึงได้ปรับปรุงกฎเกณฑ์ที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการจัดชั้นและการกันเงินสำรอง รวมทั้งการรายงานข้อมูลเครดิตของลูกหนี้เพื่อให้เข้าถึงสินเชื่อได้ง่ายขึ้น… อ่านต่อที่
日本企业在发展过程中，银行深深涉足于企业的经营事务，形成了颇具特色的 “主办银行制”。
被比喻成“企业专属的私人医生”的主办银行是指与企业保持长期而密切联系的一两家主要商业银行，它对企业提供债务资本的同时对企业提供金融、并购、海外投资咨询等综合服务。“他山之石，可以攻玉”，探讨日本的“主办银行制”对我国民企在转型中具有借鉴意义。
1. 日本企业并非是”失去的二十年”
自从1989年的日本泡沫经济崩溃以来，日本GDP增长率年平均不足1%，全球媒体对日本经济一致唱衰，称过去的20年为日本”失去的二十年”。然而纵观日本经济，日本依然是世界第三大经济体，GDP高于经济合作与发展组织国家（OECD）的平均值，且GDP增长率在发达国家中领先，2019年的日本GDP增长率达到1.8%，接近同一时期的美国经济增速。
2012年以后，日本首相安倍晋三大力推行以“安倍经济学”为代表的新政，其目标是重振日本疲弱的经济、终结长期通缩和缩减公共债务。日本的“量宽政策”虽然未达到预想效果，以制造业为主的企业收益正在改善，特别是大企业账面收益连年激增。日本財務省统计，截至2018年底，日本企业的留存收益总计达463万亿日元，其中，排名第一的丰田汽车留存收益高达20万亿日元，2018年的营业额也初次突破了30万亿日元。但是企业并没有将大量的利润还原给员工，而是将利润存起来作为“内部留存”，这被学者视作“导致日本消费长期处于低迷”的主要原因。同时也反映出日本企业的良好的经营体制。从某种意义上可以说过去的二十年是日企”苦练内功的二十年”。笔者通过切身实践认为，过去的二十年也是日企”苦练内功的二十年”，日本的“主办银行制度”在对日本企业的崛起发展中起到举足轻重的作用。
90年代以后，随着日本经济的衰退，我国对该制度的关注度也渐渐下降。反观日本制造业企业在全球的地位非但没有衰退反而苦练内功使核心竞争力日益见强， “主办银行制”对于日企的成长功不可没。
日本企业按融资比重把排第一位的银行称作主办银行，主办银行一般占企业日常金融业务和海外业务的比重很高，与企业之间具有长期固定的综合性交易关系。譬如主办银行作为企业大股东要对该企业经营负有不可推卸的责任，给予企业在金融支持，主导企业兼并重组；主办银行的证券子公司通常为该企业发行债券的主承销金融机构；主办银行把体系内具有国际视野、金融知识、财务管理、经营管理能力的专业人才向企业输出，提高企业的综合竞争力。
主办银行在公司发展中的作用表现如下 ：
(1) 最大的公司债权人，银行主贷在企业资本来源中占主导地位。二战后，日本证券市场的发展长期处于落后状态，各公司不得不依靠从银行贷款这一间接融资途径来满足其需求。
(2) 重要的企业股权持有者。日本主办银行与其关联企业间存在长期而密切的合作，在其公 司治理结构中所具有的举足轻重的作用。日本规定银行可持有企业股份的5%，主办银行制实现法人持股及银行与企业交叉持股，银行可以通过股东会、董事会更换企业高管，介入企业的股份制改造。
(3) 人事参与。银行通过向企业派遣内部董事 (由企业支薪的高管)来实现对公司的人事参与。
在日本的大企业中，来自银行的董事不在少数。银行颇具特色的“出向制度”一般允许员工在48岁以后离开银行转入关联实体企业工作。从银行的角度而言，出向员工虽然彻底离开了金融体系，对于加强银企关系具有重要意义。通过这种人事参与，主办银行可以迅速而准确地获取有关公司的第一手信息，帮助公司加强其业务管理尤其是风险管理，还可以对公司发展战略的制订与实施全过程加强控制。
2.主办银行在当今日本社会中的地位
主办银行制融合了银行与企业之间，以及银行与监管机构之间的相互关系。几乎每一个日本企业都与某银行保持着紧密的联系。这些联系包括贷款，但也涉及债券发行支持，股权投资，支付结算帐户以及各种不同的信息和管理方面的服务。
战后，日本的银企关系是以主办银行为中心的模式。主办银行制和财阀制实质是相互重叠交叉和互补的公司治理结构。财阀是在1930年代以后出现成的日本家族大企业的联合，这些企业之间的联系包括交叉持有股权和债权，产品和劳务贸易。但是其核心企业多为银行，因此主办银行则可以视为是财阀企业间实现联系的基础。
财阀集团根据成员企业实施绩效所体现的企业内外环境的变化来对控制权的分配作出适应性的重新调整，只有当企业出现财务危机时，财阀集团对企业的治理模式才转入积极干预状态，而实行这种干预通常要由主办银行来牵头。主办银行是日本财阀集团对其成员企业进行控制权调整的具体实施者。
1990 年代中后期到 2000 年初，日本实施了“金融大爆炸(big bang)”的金融监管体制改革，主办银行制的银行为企业护航模式也逐渐暴露出弱点。随着市场竞争的加剧，1997 年以后，北海道拓殖銀行和日本长期信用銀行、日本债券信用銀行先后破产，银行对企业的持股的减少以及规避不良资产等企业行为的出现，貌似主办银行制要退出舞台，其实其主要职能并未发生大的变化。特别是企业遇到经营危机或是濒临破产时，股票价值大跌导致股东的作用大幅度降低，这时主办银行作为主要债权方对企业实施重组，行使企业经营管理的职能说起到的作用巨大。
日本的帝国数据公司在2018年对日本企业147万家实施的全国主办银行调查显示，回答主办银行是三菱UFJ、三井住友、瑞穗等5家都市银行的企业共29.2万家（占比19.8％）、回答是地方银行的共 73.5万家（占 比50.0％）、回答是信用金庫的有 34.1 万家（占比23.2％）。由上可见，被称作日本三大巨型银行的三菱UFJ为10.1万家企业（份额6.8％）、三井住友为 7.9 万家企业（份额 5.4％）、瑞穗为 6.4万家企业（份额4.3％）承担了主办银行的职责，同时其他各级别的银行都发挥了相应的主办银行的作用。
目前，日本企业的银行贷款所占比例虽然有所下降，但主办银行作为企业最大债权人的地位并未发生过动摇。抛开大型都市银行与财阀集团各成员之间在历史上形成的交易关系，一般来说提供高质量服务的金融机构也会角逐主办银行的地位。因此主办银行并非局限商业银行，包括投行和信托银行在内的金融机构也分担着主办银行的职能。
3. 主办银行制能否扭转我国民企的“融资难，融资贵”？
我国国有企业和国有银行的关系也有与主办银行制度类似之处，至今还是有银行通过与企业签署战略合作协议提供金融支持承诺彰显主办银行地位的情况。但是与日本模式比较，银企同舟共济的主办银行制度和实践甚少。中国人民银行在2000年初也提起过主办银行制度，之后随着加入世贸组织和市场化经济的推广，股份制银行、城市商业银行蓬勃发展起来，通过市场竞争重新分配市场份额的现象日益普遍。
历史与社会形态的大的背景中演变而来中国和日本的金融体制的不同，决定了银行在公司治理结构中扮演角色的不同。日本的大型都市银行不仅在金融业的各个领域拥有一系列子公司，而且通过证券、保险，投资等一系列行业，实际上控制了一大批实业企业的财务（上基本都是参股）。在该模式下可以通过对企业的全方位个领域的经营支援和掌握企业一线信息实现银企的可持续发展，这两大功能是是由日本的商业银行私有化制度所决定的。我国限制银行对企业持股，银行不直接成为企业的股东也就不可能起到日本主办银行的经营支援。目前，我国的商业银行中占绝对优势的是国有商业银行，短期内要做到国有商业银行的私有化是不现实的。
我国商业银行在提供融资时有“近国企，远民企”的倾向，也是我国民营企业，特别是中小企业融资难的主要原因。四大国有商业银行其主要贷款额度发放给了国有企业，对中小企业贷款的监管成本的提高以及收益较低、风险较高都促使银行对中小企业的供贷积极性不高。
在我国经济下行中，降杠杆降产能影响一些企业的资金回笼，银行的风险偏好与民企的不透明的经营却不匹配，打击影子银行也堵塞了民企非正规融资渠道。目前，中国民企因无法落实担保或者抵押而发生拒贷的比例很高。从企业抵质押品不足，信用担保体系的缺乏导致“融资难，融资贵”的现象中，反映出我国银行体制尚不能满足民营企业对信用提升评级的需求。
随着我国移动互联网技术的发展，是基于云计算和大数据等技术的“金融科技（fintech）”实现了金融服务的发展创新和效率提升，在一些领域的发展可以认为领先于日本。银企直连系统实现了企业的财务系统与银行综合商务交易平台的对接，提高了工作效率，确保了财务系统与银行综合业务系统账户信息的一致性。
区块链（blockchain）技术已经运用在了清算、跨境贸易、供应链、信息识别和数字货币等方面，不仅能够帮助银行增强风控能力，还能够在解决企业融资难和融资贵上起到助力作用。2019年，国家网信办共发布了二批区块链信息服务备案清单，涉及工商银行、平安银行、浙商银行等6家银行，共计14项区块链服务。区块链更多是以大数据为依托，银行被企业邀请接入区块链后才能收到企业数据，因此企业和银行的关系也由传统模式的被动变为主动。主办银行必须积极投入金融科技着手对企业整体业务链的开拓，才能捍卫主办银行的地位。
综上所述，我国金融制度的基础以及特殊性，加上经济高速发展中出现的企业风险取向错位，出现了金融供给端对企业需求端市场细分不足。我国的国有商业银行不是企业最大的股东，也不具有对企业经营管理的决策权，所以照搬日本的主办银行体系是不现实的。但是主办银行对企业经营介入的模式对我国的银行制度有着极其重要的借鉴意义，取其精华同时兼顾我国国情或许可以成为纾困民企的良药。特别是在新常态经济下民营企业发展面临转型的过程中，迫切需要分析公司经营对银行参与的潜在需要以及可发挥其作用的具体条件，深入研究与金融科技相融的中国特色的银行监控机制的适用性。
およそ2400万の口座をもつ「みずほ銀行」は、新年度中に原則、預金通帳をスマートフォンなどで記録を見られるデジタル通帳とする方針です。これでメガバンク３行が、すべてデジタル通帳への切り替えを進めることになります。
みずほ銀行は、新年度中に新しく預金口座を開設する人には原則、紙の通帳は発行せず、パソコンやスマホで残高や入金・出金の記録を見られるデジタル通帳を利用してもらう方針です。
みずほ銀行には、およそ2400万の個人の預金口座がありますが、紙の通帳の場合、印紙税や紙代、印刷代などで一つの口座につき年間およそ200円のコストがかかっています。
長引く低金利や、決済サービスに参入したＩＴ企業との競争など経営環境が厳しくなっているため、デジタル化によってコストを削減するねらいです。
ただ、新たに口座を開設する人でも希望すれば紙の通帳を発行するほか、すでに口座を持っている人も希望すればこれまでどおり紙の通帳を利用できるということです。
メガバンクでは三井住友銀行が４年前から三菱ＵＦＪ銀行が去年から、デジタル通帳を導入して紙の通帳からの切り替えを進めていて、金融サービスのデジタル化が一段と加速しそうです。
Asian banks are bracing for a rough ride in the coming six months as the coronavirus epidemic disrupts businesses across the region, likely prompting a spike in bad loans and ultimately dealing a blow to their bottom lines.
Lenders from DBS, Singapore’s biggest bank, to HSBC, the largest of three currency-issuing banks in Hong Kong, have warned in the past two weeks that they will have to set aside additional provisions for loan losses in the first quarter – a risk they say is short term and manageable.
China’s biggest banks are not scheduled to update their guidance for 2020 until next month, but credit ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has forecast that the peak questionable loan ratio for China’s 285 trillion yuan (US$40.5 trillion) banking sector “may almost double” in a worst-case scenario.
“We have also seen it can take years to restore standards in [non-performing loan] recognition, and in the quality of the financial statements, once such standards are loosened,” S&P analyst Ryan Tsang said in a research note. “We see a risk that companies may exploit relaxed standards to drag out repayments for years.”
HSBC, which counts Hong Kong as its largest market and has made a big bet on growth in the Greater Bay Area, said last week it expects about US$600 million of provisions for additional loan losses if the coronavirus outbreak drags on into the second half of the year – its worst-case scenario.
“There will be revenue impact, which will become progressively more acute, if the coronavirus was to continue beyond the next month to six weeks,” Ewan Stevenson, the HSBC chief financial officer, said on a conference call on February 18. “We think that the Q1 impact, as we sit here today, is probably rangebound in the order of about US$200 million to US$500 million relative to our previous planning assumptions.”
淡马锡控股（Temasek Holdings）全体员工将冻结加薪，高级管理层也可选择削减基本工资。
员工原本的加薪预算及高层自愿减薪的金额都将捐作慈善，在2019冠状病毒疾病（COVID-19）疫情肆虐之际协助有需要的群体。
淡马锡昨天（2月24日）宣布，在来临4月份的薪酬行动中，旗下全体员工，包括升级者的加薪都将被冻结。
执行总经理及以上的高级管理层则获准可自发性地削减基本工资，最高可达5％，最长为期一年。此外，高层今年的年度花红也将被削减。
淡马锡将把原本给员工加薪的预算悉数捐给集团属下的员工志愿组织——淡马锡关爱意愿团（T-Touch）。高层自愿减薪的金额，集团也会以一对一的方式，捐给关爱意愿团。
这笔慈善捐款将在冠病疫情期间用于支援社区的各种活动。淡马锡关爱意愿团正在进行的一项计划是为前线工作者提供洗手液，协助他们抵抗病毒。
2019冠病疫情冲击区域经济，贸工部在上周把今年全年的经济增长预测下调到负0.5％至1.5％之间。近期发布业绩的淡马锡控股旗下投资组合公司如新加坡航空、新电信及星展集团等都表示业务受到一定程度的冲击。
淡马锡在疫情带来挑战之际采取冻薪及减薪计划，除了体现节制，也对旗下投资组合公司表达共体时艰的态度。据了解，通过让高层自发性减薪以为慈善出力的计划才宣布不久，就获得良好的回应。
澳元兑美元汇率跌至66.11美分，这是自2009年3月以来的最低水平。
在失业率无预兆地大幅上涨后，澳元跌至11年来的低点。这是自全球金融危机以来的最糟糕水平。
澳大利亚统计局（ABS）昨日发布的数据显示，尽管创造的就业岗位好于预期，但失业率却从5.1%跃升至5.3%。
联邦储备银行（RBA）去年连续三次降息，使利率达到了创纪录的最低点——0.75%。RBA表示，近期持续上升的失业率或将触发再次降息。
道明证券（TD Securities）分析师普拉尚特·纽纳哈（Prashant Newnaha）表示，1月份的就业数据本身不足以迫使RBA再次降息，但下一步降息可能在不久的将来发生。
“RBA的确表示，失业率‘实质性’恶化，才会导致再次降息。下一份就业报告将于3月19日发布，失业率接近5.5%的话才符合RBA可能在4月份降息的要求，” 他表示。
“不能排除下一份就业报告中出现5.5%的失业率的可能。”
“如果冠状病毒疫情导致了失业，同时当前66.1%的劳动参与率（译注：就业者和失业者占劳动年龄人口的比率）维持不变或有所上升，那么失业率可能会升至5.5%以上。”
目前，至少再降息一次的可能性越来越大，澳元统计局发布就业数据后应声下跌，兑美元汇率一夜跌至一澳元兑换66.11美分，创金融危机后的汇率新低。
For Thailand’s oldest banking family, it’s a legacy-defining deal 25 years in the making. That’s how long Chartsiri Sophonpanich has been waiting to turn Bangkok Bank into a key regional player in Southeast Asia.
His winning takeover bid for Indonesia’s PT Bank Permata in December is a US$2.7 billion bet that now is the time to jettison decades of caution and secure his family’s legacy for a fourth generation.
It’s an uncharacteristically bold move – some analysts say risky – for the 60-year-old banker whose early ambitions were laid low by the Asian financial crisis. But after years of lagging behind rivals by playing it safe, the Permata acquisition could be Chartsiri’s last big chance to revitalise the US$9 billion lender that enjoyed breakneck growth under both his father and grandfather.
“Where there is danger, there is gain,” said Piti Sithi-Amnuai, the Thai lender’s 87-year-old chairman, who has worked at the bank for more than half a century, overlapping with Chartsiri’s grandfather Chin and father Chatri. “Chartsiri’s legacy is to grow Bangkok Bank even greater than his grandfather. I believe that is his aim, his goal.”
Chin Sophonpanich founded Bangkok Bank in 1944, when he branched out from selling construction materials and canned goods. He went on to become one of the region’s most prominent bankers, financing the empire-building of ethnic Chinese tycoons in Southeast Asia including Malaysia’s richest man Robert Kuok.
汇丰控股(HSBA.L)周二公布将削减1,000亿美元资产，缩减投行规模，并将改革美国及欧洲业务，这个大规模的整改行动意味着将在三年内裁撤3.5万个工作岗位。
汇丰长期以来表现落后于竞争对手，目前正试图瘦身并提升竞争力，藉以应付以下的连串挑战，包括各主要市场经济放缓、新型冠状病毒疫情、英国退出欧盟、以及主要央行降息。
汇丰控股临时行政总裁祈耀年(Noel Quinn)向路透表示，“这个计划的重点是我们的聘雇人数将在未来三年内从23.5万人缩减至接近20万人。”他称部分职位裁撤将通过人员自然流失来达成。
“这应会打造出一个更精简也更有竞争力的集团，这样更有利于向投资人提供更高的回报，”祈耀年在声明中称，他指的是重组措施。
汇丰是欧洲按资产计最大的银行，该公司大部分营收都来自亚洲。其2019年税前获利为133.5亿美元，上年同期为198.9亿美元。券商平均预估为200.3亿美元。
策略调整
汇丰在美国多年来表现不佳。汇丰表示需要“重塑美国业务以提高回报率”，并将关闭其224家分支机构中的约三分之一，仅面向跨国的、较富裕的客户。
汇丰表示，将把零售银行与财富管理业务部门与全球私人银行业务合并，以缔造全球最大的财富管理公司之一。这是汇丰为简化集团架构采取的部分举措。
该行还将缩减针对欧洲现金股票的销售和研究，重点是支持股权资本市场交易。
国家金融与发展实验室国家资产负债表研究中心于2月15日发布《2019年度宏观杠杆率报告》。报告显示，2019年，中国宏观杠杆率在一季度出现了大幅攀升，二、三季度增幅回落，四季度出现了增幅下降，整体呈前高后低态势；这与经济增长的态势基本一致。
具体来看，2019年实体经济杠杆率245.4%，比上年上升了6.1个百分点，四个季度分别上升了5.1、0.7、0.9和-0.6个百分点。分部门来看，居民部门杠杆率全年上升了3.7个百分点，仍然是总体杠杆率攀升的主要驱动力。政府部门杠杆率全年上升了2.1个百分点，相对于前些年而言也增幅明显。非金融企业部门的杠杆率全年仅上升了0.3个百分点，除了第一季度有较大幅度攀升，后三季度增幅都呈下降态势，企业部门仍然处于去杠杆进行时。金融部门杠杆率，以资产方统计全年下降了4.6个百分点，以负债方统计则上升了0.2个百分点。总体上，金融部门杠杆率趋于稳定，金融去杠杆或将告一段落。
居民部门杠杆率仍在上升，上升趋势有所减缓。2019年末居民部门杠杆率为55.8%，相比于2018年末的52.1%上涨了3.7个百分点。居民杠杆率增幅较高的年份是2009年（5.6个百分点）、2016年（5.5个百分点）和2017年（4.0个百分点），2019年的上升幅度仍属于较高水平。
居民部门杠杆率2019年全年上升了3.7个百分点，仍然是总体杠杆率攀升的主要驱动力。
报告指出，影响居民杠杆率的主要变量是房地产贷款。2019年末居民总贷款规模为55.3万亿元，其中中长期消费贷款为34.0万亿，是构成居民贷款的主要部分，占居民全部债务的62%；而个人住房贷款余额约为30.0万亿，占居民全部债务的54%。从长期来看，居民贷款与住房按揭贷款的周期波动是基本一致的，居民部门的杠杆率也主要受到房地产周期的影响。
报告认为，综合来看，依照前两年的稳（去）杠杆路径，2019年宏观杠杆率的攀升有些意外。不过，鉴于经贸摩擦导致经济下行压力，以及2018年去杠杆太猛产生较大负面作用需要纠偏，2019年杠杆率出现较快上升，亦在情理之中。而且，全年6个百分点的杠杆率增幅，只及2008-2016年年均杠杆率增幅的一半，体现了政策当局的定力。
另一方面，受新冠肺炎疫情的影响，2020年经济增长面临更大压力，宏观杠杆率上升幅度大概率会高于2019年。初步预测，2020年宏观杠杆率或将上升10个百分点。
为进一步推进上海国际金融中心建设，积极推进临港新片区金融先行先试，将在临港新片区内探索取消外商直接投资人民币资本金专用账户，探索开展本外币合一跨境资金池试点。
央行网站刊登的进一步加快推进上海国际金融中心建设和金融支持长三角一体化发展的意见并指出，试点符合条件的商业银行理财子公司在上海设立专业子公司，投资临港新片区和长三角的重点建设项目股权和未上市企业股权。
“健全金融法治环境，全面实行准入前国民待遇加负面清单管理制度，对内外资金融机构适用同等监管要求，对接国际高标准规则，推动金融业高水平开放。”意见称。
在推进金融业对外开放方面，对境外金融机构在上海投资设立、参股养老金管理公司的申请，成熟一家、批准一家。鼓励保险资产管理公司在上海设立专业资产管理子公司。
支持外资机构设立或控股证券经营机构、基金管理公司在上海落地。推进人身险外资股比限制从51%提高至100%在上海率先落地。
试点保险资产管理公司参股境外资产管理机构等在上海设立的理财公司。探索保险资金依托上海相关交易所试点投资黄金、石油等大宗商品；支持金融机构和大型科技企业在区内依法设立金融科技公司，积极稳妥探索人工智能、大数据、云计算、区块链等新技术在金融领域应用。
同时，支持符合条件的非金融企业集团在上海设立金融控股公司。鼓励跨国公司在上海设立全球或区域资金管理中心等总部型机构。跨国公司在上海设立的资金管理中心，经批准可进入银行间外汇市场交易。允许在上海自贸试验区注册的融资租赁母公司和子公司共享外债额度。
促进投资贸易自由化便利化方面，支持符合条件的跨国企业集团在境内外成员之间集中开展本外币资金余缺调剂和归集业务，资金按实需兑换，对跨境资金流动实行双向宏观审慎管理。探索外汇管理转型升级。
在临港新片区内试点开展境内贸易融资资产跨境转让业务。研究推动依托上海票据交易所及相关数字科技研发支持机构建立平台，办理贸易融资资产跨境转让业务，促进人民币跨境贸易融资业务发展。
在促进人民币金融资产配置方面，继续扩大债券市场对外开放，丰富境外投资者类型和数量。逐步推动境内结算代理行向托管行转型，为境外投资者进入银行间债券市场提供多元化服务。
同时，发展人民币利率、外汇衍生产品市场，研究推出人民币利率期权，进一步丰富外汇期权等产品类型。
In December, JPMorgan received approval in China for a majority-owned securities licence, becoming only the third foreign bank after UBS and Nomura
For JPMorgan, the approval to have a majority-owned securities firm in China is just the beginning of the US bank’s game plan in the world’s second largest economy.
The New York-headquartered bank, with assets of US$2.6 trillion and operations worldwide, says it plans to take full ownership of its mainland operations from securities, asset management to futures options next year when it celebrates its 100th anniversary in China next year.
As part of a four-year investment plan, the full ownership will allow the bank to confront international peers and mainland banking giants.
Mark Leung, CEO for China at JPMorgan, said full ownership is an important criteria to deliver a seamless experience for Chinese clients, adding that he hopes to achieve the target by next year as it marks JPMorgan’s centenary in China.