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  • Alibaba Singles Day sales smash another record

    Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba has set a new sales record during the world’s biggest online shopping spree known as Singles’ Day, as the event has brought in more than $37 billion.

    The new milestone was reached nearly 17 hours after the online shopping festival kicked off on Monday at midnight with a performance by American pop star Taylor Swift. There are still seven hours to go to reach new highs.

    The 24-hour Chinese retail extravaganza, similar to Black Friday, generated more than $1 billion in the first minute alone, Alibaba reported. In the first nine hours, sales jumped 25 percent compared to the same point last year.

    After 15 hours, the gross merchandise volume was on track to reach $30 billion, nearly half of US rival Amazon’s net sales in the entire third quarter, and already nearing last year’s record sales. The number of delivery orders for 2019 Singles’ Day already surpassed the total for 2017.

    This year marks the 10th anniversary of Singles’ Day, also known as ‘Double 11’, as it falls on November 11. The tradition originates from Chinese college campuses where students have a tradition dating back to the 90s of celebrating being single.

    Last year’s 11/11 Singles’ Day generated a record $30.8 billion (213.5 billion yuan), a massive jump over the $25 billion in sales in 2017. The event has broken sales records every year, already beating both US shopping holidays Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined.

  • Fresh fetish or future? Sex robots give boot to human prostitutes at Swiss brothel, charging half the price

    At half the cost of their human counterparts, sex worker robots at a Swiss brothel are becoming the choice of hard-up punters. One expert claims sex with a robo-doll is a fetish among men, just like a preference for leather.

    The beautiful and civilized Swiss city of Lucerne is renowned for its setting below snow-capped mountain peaks on the banks of Lake Lucerne, with its medieval architecture, picturesque Altstadt (Old Town) and brothel full of sex robots instead of real prostitutes.

    That’s right, the nation that brought us cuckoo clocks and Toblerone chocolate has gone hi-tech in the sex industry with Lucerne brothel, Arsenal 51 (I don’t know either), introducing 90 Swiss francs ($90) an hour sessions with their sort-of real-looking love mannequins for those punters who fancy a little less conversation, a little more action, as Elvis would put it.

    They’re half the price of genuine human female company and proving popular among the sophisticated demographic that frequents such houses of pleasure.You can meet Zoe, Mimi (pictured online looking like a partly-dressed giant Barbie) or Nina (think plastic Britney Spears wearing a military cap) for 30 minutes of familiarisation for 60 Swiss francs.

    Of course, for those not prepared to go totally virtual, a combination of a real woman and a ‘Sexpuppe’ for half an hour at 150 Swiss francs is also available. How the client divides the time is up to them.

    The Arsenal 51 website excitedly exclaims: “Free drinks of course! Like a
    Jack (Daniels) or Martini!” It doesn’t say whether the drinks are compulsory.

    It does however offer the customer reassurance that “all our girls take a shower before they go to your room.” With smart phones and Apple watches only recently offering water resistance, there is no mention how the recharging sockets on the sex robots are kept watertight while they rinse off the soap.

    If there is a malfunction, then there should be no concerns about lost time, as the management at Arsenal 51 assure their esteemed clients that they won’t lose a minute’s pleasure because the billing clock only starts once all parties are showered, dried and ready for some robo-romance. If only the dolls could talk, what tales they would tell.

    With prostitution legal in Switzerland they have seemingly now got to the point where sex between two consenting adults is, yawn, a little humdrum. And all this time we’ve been thinking the Swiss were boring!

    A survey by men’s health organization ‘Praeventionsangebot fuer Freier Don Juan’ of 9,000 men claimed that sex with a robot was a simple fetish of some men, like a preference for leather, according to spokesman Felix Neuenschwander.

    No mention if it’s the same guys who still live at home with their parents while aged in their forties, love comic books, and blush furiously and have to leave the room when a tampon advert comes on television.

    Who knows? This could be a massive growth industry. While the world’s first sex doll brothel opened in Barcelona in 2017 to last only a month, the market has rebooted to the extent that the Lumidolls franchise, featuring the rubber rather than real variety of woman, now has bordellos in Moscow, Nagoya and Turin.

    For those Brits who feel they might be missing out on something, good news arrived for them this week in the shape of a UK-made transgender sex doll with a detachable penis, retailing at just £1,300 ($1,660), and called ‘Alondra’.

    The doll was created, says a spokeswoman with a straight face, “because we have listened to popular demand and delivered a transsexual doll onto the market.”

  • Forget your problems, men, women have mustaches too!

    Sitting atop the privilege pile, men rarely get awareness campaigns aimed directly at them. Movember is one of the few, yet now a brand of women’s razors wants that for itself, too. Why?

    Prostate and testicular cancer are, obviously, men’s issues. So too, predominantly, is suicide, which kills one man every minute of every day around the world. In the Western world, men are three to four times as likely to die by suicide as women. 

    Since 2004, men worldwide have been growing their mustaches out for ‘Movember,’ all in the name of promoting men’s health and raising cash to tackle these problems. Until this year, when one women’s grooming company came along, took a look at Movember and decided it needed a good dollop of feminism.

    “Women have mustaches too,” a hirsute model tells viewers in a new ad by razor company Billie.

    “We’ve been hiding them all our lives. But newsflash: we’ve got them,” another fuzzy-lipped model says, before exhorting the women of the world to join them and kick in funds to their Movember campaign.

    To be fair, these funds do go towards tackling the men’s issues mentioned above. And Billie will match all donations up to $50,000. But you wouldn’t know this from the ad. Instead, it looks like yet another piece of woke posturing, deliberately released during Movember to remind us, in case we forgot for a split second, that women have problems too.

    And, if women do want to grow out their mustaches – thus rendering them completely unattractive to the patriarchal ‘male gaze’ that feminists spend so much time complaining about – then that’s their prerogative. After all, the days of ‘bearded ladies’ being paraded as circus freaks are long gone.

    But can’t we just for one month be spared the relentless onslaught of corporate wokeness? Men are rarely treated to awareness campaigns and fundraising drives, so can’t we at least have Movember?

    Of course, nobody should be compelled into silence: woman, man, or hip corporation. But while certain groups promote awareness of male breast cancer, male razor companies generally don’t put out ads during Breast Cancer Awareness Month reminding women that “hey, newsflash, we get it too you know!”

    It would be completely tone-deaf if a crowd of unwashed incels raised money for National Domestic Violence Month, then put out an ad blasting the women who’ve spurned their advances.

    By all means, contribute to Movember if you support the cause. But remember that the cause is men’s health, and the month shouldn’t be a soapbox for a completely unrelated message about body image and the empowerment of the female mustache.

  • Why 2020 could be a crisis year for refiners

    New fuel specifications are set to send shockwaves through oil markets, but a new wave of low-sulphur fuel oil coming online could create a new market-crippling glut.

    The refining industry around the world has carefully planned to boost compliant fuel production in the back end of the year, expecting windfall from the IMO-effect in the months immediately preceding the shipping rules change.

    But as January 1, 2020, is fast approaching, the previously expected refining margins bonanza could turn to bust as the disruption is now expected to be much less dramatic than previously thought.

    According to the new rules by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), only 0.5-percent or lower sulfur fuel oil should be used on ships beginning January 1, 2020, unless said ships have installed the so-called scrubbers – systems that remove sulfur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers – so they can continue to use high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO).

    To be sure, the new fuel specifications are set to send shockwaves through the entire supply chain in the shipping industry – from crude oil producers, to refiners, to traders, to shippers, to end-consumers of everything traded on ships.

    However, supply of compliant low-sulfur fuel could be just as sufficient, while demand may be subdued, due to the global economic and trade growth slowdown and at least some non-compliance from shippers, which analysts at Wood Mackenzie put at around 10 percent for 2020.

    Russia is one of the countries set to delay the IMO rules implementation, but only in its territorial waters including rivers, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, responding to questions sent by Bloomberg. Russia will still comply with the rules in international waters. Due to its predominantly high-sulfur oil, Russia is set to be one of the biggest losers in the new marine fuel rules.

    The new regulation will lead to low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) displacing HSFO demand, but the change looks less dramatic now than it did several months ago.

    The shipping industry consumes 3.5 million bpd of HSFO, while refiners around the world are set to provide 1.5 million bpd of IMO-compliant very-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO), according to WoodMac’s Head of Oils Analysis Alan Gelder. There will still be demand for HSFO – from the ships with scrubbers installed, and from some non-compliance, including shippers prepared to cheat in markets with limited controls, and non-compatibility of VLSFO. Around 1 million bpd of marine fuel demand would be for marine gasoil (MGO), a middle distillate similar to diesel, WoodMac reckons.

    VLSFO is cheaper than marine gasoil, but some conservative customers could still prefer MGO, Sharon Weintraub, Chief Executive Officer for Supply and Trading, Eastern Hemisphere, at BP, told Reuters in September.

    Supply of VLSFO looks to be greater than initially thought, Matt Stanley, an oil broker with StarFuels in Dubai, told Reuters.

    With relatively adequate supply of compliant fuel, refiners may not see the refining margins boom they were expecting earlier this year.

    As 2020 is drawing nearer, LSFO storage around the world’s key bunkering port, Singapore, is piling up. As at end-October, 7.3-7.5 million tons of LSFO and blendstocks were sitting in floating storage on board 29 supertankers offshore Singapore, up from 7 million tons at the start of October, according to Refinitiv analysts quoted by Reuters.

    Japanese refiners are ready to supply LFSO but they will keep up HSFO production and supply because Japan hasn’t banned discharging of water from open-loop scrubbers at ports, according to S&P Global Platts.

    Regardless of the marine fuel that the shipping industry will use, demand for each of those could be much lower than expected in view of the global economic slowdown and seaborne trade growth slowdown.

    In its September Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the trade slowdown weighs on fuel oil demand and allows for a less disruptive switch to IMO-compliant fuel. In March, the IEA expected gasoil shortage of 200,000-300,000 bpd in 2020.

    “With fewer than four months left before the rule kicks in, we believe that the oil market is likely to be better supplied than we thought,” the IEA said in September.

    Refining capacity has increased globally, while bunker demand is now lower due to the ongoing contraction in global trade, the agency noted. In addition, US light oil supply has increased, and US grades are in demand with refiners who process them into VLSFO fuels. These recent developments “now point at the likelihood of an even smoother start to the implementation,” the IEA said.

  • UBS fined US$51 million by Hong Kong regulator for systematically overcharging bond clients for nearly 10 years

    • The Swiss bank agrees to fully compensate about 5,000 clients HK$200 million
    • This is second major fine imposed on UBS this year after being penalised fined HK$375 million in March for lapses in its IPO sponsor duty

    Hong Kong’s regulator on Monday imposed a HK$400 million (US$51.06 million) fine on UBS – the second this year – for overcharging bond trading clients for nearly a decade, with the Swiss bank agreeing to offer a compensation of HK$200 million to 5,000 customers affected by its conduct.

    It is the joint-highest fine imposed by the Securities and Futures Commission, matching the penalty imposed on HSBC Private Bank (Suisse) in 2017 for misconduct related to the sale of risky Lehman Brothers-linked structured products to customers with low-risk appetite.

    In March, two UBS units were ordered to pay a combined HK$375 million for failing in their duty as IPO sponsors to conduct proper due diligence on the quality of listing candidates in three initial public offerings. UBS was also banned from acting as an IPO sponsor for one year.

    “The SFC expects all intermediaries to uphold high standards of integrity when managing trades for clients. UBS fell far short of these expectations by systematically overcharging a very large number of clients over many years,” said Ashley Alder, chief executive of the SFC.

    “Although each overcharge represented a fraction of each trade, UBS’s misconduct involved deception and a pervasive abuse of trust resulting in significant additional revenue for UBS to which it was not entitled.”

    The SFC has stepped up its policing efforts across the board to clean up malpractices by investment banks and companies to assist the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s bid to make the city Asia’s top fundraising hub.

    Between 2008 and 2017, UBS Wealth Management’s client advisers and assistants overcharged customers when trading bonds or structured notes by increasing the spread charged. In addition, the bank also charged fees higher than its disclosed rate, the SFC said.

    These 5,000 Hong Kong clients were involved in 28,700 such transactions and will receive a notice about the compensation within a month.

    “The SFC considers that these malpractices involved a combination of serious systemic failures for a prolonged period of time including inadequate policies, procedures and system controls, lack of staff training and supervision, and failures of the first and second lines of defence functions of UBS,” the regulator said in a statement, adding that UBS had failed to “act honestly, fairly and in the best interests of its clients”.

    A UBS spokesman said it was the bank that reported the malpractice to the SFC.

    “After a comprehensive review, UBS self-identified and reported this matter to the relevant regulators. The self-reporting included a plan to fully reimburse the affected wealth management clients … The behaviour of the individuals involved is unacceptable and in strong contrast to the behavioural principles of our firm,” a UBS spokesman said in a statement.

  • Chinese consumers break last year’s Singles’ Day record with 268.4 billion yuan in sales

    Chinese consumers collectively spent 268.4 billion yuan (US$38.4 billion) for Alibaba’s Singles’ Day, setting a new record for the 24 hour shopping extravaganza.

    The final tally for this year’s Singles’ Day was up nearly 26 per cent compared to last year’s figure of 213.5 billion yuan, as consumption during the festival remained robust despite a protracted US-China trade war, now in its 17th month, and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

    Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind, where shoppers scoop up everything from consumer electronics to luxury items and even cars.

    “Singles’ Day is becoming more recognised worldwide … but since it is still very much a domestic holiday and event, it is a true test of Chinese consumer power,” said Benson Ng, EY Greater China digital advisory leader.

    While the company’s e-commerce marketplaces Tmall and Taobao are traditionally the mainstays of the annual shopping extravaganza, this year’s festival includes business-to-business e-commerce platforms like AliExpress as well as Lazada, Alibaba’s Southeast Asian e-commerce subsidiary, as the company taps international consumers.

  • 半导体微细化竞争:3强以外企业掉队

    2019/11/12
    半导体的电路线宽越细,运算处理和存储容量的性能越好,耗电量也将下降,因此半导体厂商一直竞相开发微细化技术。自2010年前后起,技术发展开始停滞,但极紫外线(EUV)光刻这一新技术问世,作为打破目前极限的突破口而受到期待。

    极紫外线光刻设备由荷兰的ASML垄断,价格被认为每台约合150亿日元,要建立生产线,需要数千亿日元规模,没有资金实力和技术实力难以启动投资。

    世界第3大代工企业美国格芯(Global Foundries)难以承受巨额负担,放弃了电路线宽14纳米以后的开发。排在第4位的台湾联华电子(UMC)也没有取得进展。

    有能力展开巨额投资的仅限于三星、台积电(TSMC)和美国英特尔这“半导体3强”。

    极紫外线光刻:在硅基板上形成半导体微细电路的光刻技术之一。光源采用波长13.5纳米这一极短的极紫外线(EUV)。光源的波长越短,越能形成微细的电路,能进一步提高半导体的性能。不过,技术门槛很高,只有荷兰ASML一家企业能制造设备。佳能和尼康已放弃开发。

  • 三星挑战台积电半导体代工王者宝座

    2019/11/12

    韩国三星电子在半导体代工领域向台湾积体电路制造(台积电,TSMC)发起正面挑战。三星将每年投资1万亿日元,确定采用新一代生产技术“EUV(极紫外光刻)”的量产体制,用10年左右挑战台积电世界首位的宝座。三星与台积电这2强展开竞争,将促进广泛行业的技术革新。

    三星10月31日发布的财报显示,2019年7~9月的合并营业利润同比大幅减少56%至7.78万亿韩元,销售额减少5%至62万亿韩元。主力半导体业务的营业利润为3.05万亿韩元,同比大幅减少78%,不过环比减少10%,减幅收窄。

    SK海力士、原东芝存储器等全球半导体存储器企业的业绩恢复迟迟没有进展,而三星呈现出复苏的迹象,这得益于三星年销售额达1.3万日元的代工生产业务。7~9月,该业务的销售额比上季度增长14%,持续保持2位数增长。在存储器价格下跌背景下,代工生产业务支撑了三星的业绩。

    率领三星的副会长李在镕强调,“继存储器之后,在包括代工生产在内的系统半导体业务领域也必将成为世界第一”。李在镕表明,每年会在该领域的生产设备和研发上投入1万亿日元。作为比肩半导体存储器业务的收益支柱,三星计划把代工生产业务打造为世界第一。

    三星正在扩建首尔郊外的半导体工厂(图片由三星提供)
     

    代工生产的尖端竞争正迎来新的局面。能够使半导体性能飞跃性提升的全新生产技术EUV进入普及期,三星可以应用通过存储器业务培育的技术。另外,预计今后为应对5G,高性能半导体的需求将急剧扩大,三星认为这是良机。

    在位于首尔郊外三星华城工厂的新厂房内,EUV曝光设备的投产准备工作正在推进之中。三星计划2019年1年内向半导体设备投入约2万亿日元,最早将于2020年初正式投产。据业内相关人士透露,预计将量产美国高通的最尖端智能手机用CPU(中央处理器)。

    三星已在自身智能手机的CPU上使用EUV技术,还将把该技术应用于代工生产。据称,和现有生产方法相比,使用EUV技术后,CPU处理速度和省电性能将提高2~3成左右。

    不过,在代工生产领域,台积电握有世界一半市场份额,将量产活用EUV技术、电路线宽为7纳米的半导体。10月17日,台积电还宣布把2019年内的投资额增加50亿美元,这正是对自身技术有信心的表现。此外,台积电还确定获得美国苹果新一代iPhone用尖端半导体订单。

    台积电的CEO魏哲家表示,我们的下一代半导体在行业内最先进,能够更加吸引顾客。透露出扩大市场份额的自信。

    台积电的强项不仅只有量产技术。该公司还拥有几千名技术人员,这些人为客户设计线路提供支援,起到了确保量产的桥梁作用。另一方面,三星以存储器为主力业务,缺少的是应对多品种的设计技术。

    三星把成为世界第一代工企业目标的实现时间设定在2030年。计划用10多年培育设计技术,目前正以美国硅谷的基地为中心招募技术人员。

    另一个令三星不安的因素是日本政府加强对韩国的出口管制。成为限制对象的3种产品中,EUV用光刻胶不可缺少且难以找到替代采购地。虽然目前仍能够稳定采购,但是未来采购可能变得困难。

    三星和台积电均主张“自身用EUV技术实现7纳米半导体的量产”,显示出对自身技术实力的强烈信心。半导体2强火花四溅的竞争将持续下去。

  • 尤妮佳发售遇水显示文字的纸尿裤

    日本尤妮佳近期发售了一款纸尿裤,宝宝排尿后,纸尿裤遇水发生反应,显现出日语的“谢谢”、“最喜欢你”的字样。尤妮佳希望通过这些积极的信息,对父母容易产生孤立感的新生儿时期的育儿提供支援。该纸尿裤作为使用有机棉花的高附加值商品“Natural moony”系列销售。有望获得双职工家庭等的需求。

    遇水显示文字的“Natural moony”纸尿裤

    纸尿裤外侧采用素净的花朵图案。设想用于新生儿至6个月左右的婴儿,共有3个尺码。可以用到6个月左右的S码一包58片,不含税售价1280日元左右(约合人民币82元)。一包中的一半左右为带有“谢谢”、“最喜欢你”字样的纸尿裤。

    越来越多的父母在婴儿出生到6个月左右的时期怀有孤立感和不安情绪。尤妮佳着眼于这一点推出新款纸尿裤。据尤妮佳表示,从试用了该纸尿裤的消费者那里收到了“感觉像是孩子在和我们说话,很开心”等很多积极反馈。

  • Chinese consumers break last year’s Singles’ Day record with 213.5 billion yuan in 16.5 hours

    Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind

    Chinese consumers have collectively spent 213.5 billion yuan so far for Alibaba’s Singles’ Day, breaking last year’s total with less than eight hours to go before the end of the 24 hour shopping extravaganza.

    Alibaba’s annual 11.11 Countdown Gala Celebration for 2019 was broadcast live from the Shanghai Mercedes-Benz Arena. Photo: Handout

    Chinese consumers have collectively spent 213.5 billion yuan so far for Alibaba’s Singles’ Day, breaking last year’s total with less than eight hours to go before the end of the 24 hour shopping extravaganza.

    Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind, where shoppers scoop up everything from consumer electronics to luxury items and even cars. The festival is being closely watched this year as a barometer for consumer sentiment 16 months into a US-China trade war and amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

    “Singles’ Day is becoming more recognised worldwide … but since it is still very much a domestic holiday and event, it is a true test of Chinese consumer power,” said Benson Ng, EY Greater China digital advisory leader.

    While the company’s e-commerce marketplaces Tmall and Taobao are traditionally the mainstays of the annual shopping extravaganza, this year’s festival includes business-to-business e-commerce platforms like AliExpress as well as Lazada, Alibaba’s Southeast Asian e-commerce subsidiary, as the company taps international consumers.

    Hong Kong, the US, Taiwan, Australia and Japan were the top five overseas buyers 12 hours in.

    “The digital consumption among Chinese consumers is still very high,” said Ng, adding that the demand for imported goods in the country is still strong despite the US-China trade war.

    “The origin of the [imported] goods sold in China come from Japan and the US, and this is very good news.”

    Opening sales were brisk, hitting US$10 billion in just under 30 minutes, half the time from the previous year.

    Gross merchandise value (GMV) for the Double 11 Global Shopping Festival is the total value of orders settled through Alipay on Alibaba’s consumer-facing core commerce platforms, as well as Lazada and AliExpress, within a 24-hour period on November 11. It is reported on a real-time basis and includes shipping charges paid, according to Alibaba.

    Apart from Alibaba, rival sites such as JD.com and Pinduoduo have also launched their own Singles’ Day campaigns, to entice buyers to spend on their platforms. JD.com reported that its sales, which started on November 1, had reached 165.8 billion yuan by 9am on Monday November 11.

    Singles’ Day got its name from its date. Written numerically as 11/11, the date looks like “bare branches”, a Chinese expression for the single and unattached. As a kind of antidote to the societal pressures of being in a relationship, many of China’s singles began splurging on themselves on Singles’ Day, which became seen as a type of anti-Valentine’s Day.

    Alibaba held its first Singles’ Day shopping event in 2009 as a promotional campaign, but these days it has morphed into a show of China’s collective consumer spending power. Last year, consumers spent 4,000 times more than they did during the first ever Singles’ Day event.

    Ahead of this year’s shopping extravaganza, consumers seemed to be as eager as ever to snap up deals. Prior to the beginning of the festival on Monday, 64 brands, including Apple, Dyson, Lancome and L’Oreal, had already achieved 100 million yuan in pre-orders, Alibaba said.

    Eager consumers also snapped up over 15,000 bottles of Kim Kardashian’s KKW Fragrance perfume, after the reality TV superstar conducted a live-streaming session on Tmall last Thursday to promote the brand.

  • Green groups raise alarm over China’s growing e-commerce waste mountain

    • Retailers are waiting for recycling regulations instead of taking initiative, campaigners say
    • Draft packaging standards were published last month, and e-commerce companies say they have waste reduction plans in operation

    The amount of waste accumulated by China’s e-commerce and express delivery sectors could more than quadruple by 2025 unless action is taken to reduce it, environmental groups said on Monday as the online shopping spree known as Singles’ Day set sales records.

    The volume of packaging material used by the sectors was 9.4 million tonnes last year, and was on course to reach 41.3 million tonnes by 2025 if they kept up the rate of increase, Greenpeace and other non-government bodies said in a report.

    “The e-commerce giants have barely offered even superficial responses,” Tang Damin, a plastics campaigner with Greenpeace in Beijing, said. “They’re biding their time for regulations to come out.”

    Sales hit 84 billion yuan (US$12 billion) in the first hour of the Singles’ Day annual event, up 22 per cent from last year, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group said.

    As e-commerce companies work to extend their reach into rural regions, 1.88 billion packages were delivered from November 11 to November 16 last year, an annual increase of almost 26 per cent, the State Post Bureau said.

    There was no official figure for the amount of waste generated, but Greenpeace estimated that it exceeded 250,000 tonnes.

    China had tried to turn recycling into a profitable business as space for landfills became scarcer and environmental concern about plastic waste grew, but it had yet to tackle e-commerce waste, recycling about 5 per cent of plastic packaging, the green groups said in their report.

    Last month, China’s market regulator published draft packaging standards that will restrict courier firms to a list of approved recyclable material.

    In October, Alibaba, the owner of the South China Morning Post, said it was now “greener than ever” and had provided incentives for customers to recycle, adding that its delivery subsidiary Cainiao would mark November 20 as a special cardboard recycling day.

    Another online retailer, JD.com, also announced it had cut back on adhesive tape and paper used at its warehouses and had adopted more recyclable materials.

    China is building 100 “comprehensive resource utilisation bases”, creating pilot “zero-waste” cities and pushing for mandatory trash sorting rules in major hubs, such as its commercial capital of Shanghai.

    “We cannot say China is not recycling,” said Antoine Grange, chief executive for recycling at waste management company Suez Asia, who estimated such rates could be as high as 25 per cent overall.

    “One point that is more difficult in China is traceability, and the lack of infrastructure to separate waste.”

  • Smartphone brands break records in first hours of Singles’ Day shopping festival

    Oppo said sales in the first minute outstripped what it sold in a full day last year

    Defying an overall sales decline in the world’s largest smartphone market, Chinese handset vendors have taken advantage of the frenzy surrounding the world’s biggest online sales festival to boost sales as local consumers unlock their spending to take advantage of the low prices.

    All major Chinese smartphone brands reported stellar sales figures in the first hours of this year’s November 11 Singles’ Day shopping spree.

    Huawei Technologies, China’s largest smartphone brand, said sales on its self-run Huawei online mall took only 1 minute to exceed the full day November 11 sales recorded last year, while its budget brand Honor was the No 1 seller on all three major e-commerce platforms, Tmall, JD.com and Suning.com, in the first two hours.

    Vivo said sales on its own platform were 3.75 times more in the first two hours this year compared to last year while sister brand Oppo said sales in the first minute outstripped what it sold on its website in a full day last year.

    Xiaomi, China’s fourth largest smartphone vendor, said sales on its official Tmall store broke the 1 billion yuan (US$143 million) mark after one hour, and were up 22 per cent over the same hourly period last year.

    Apple, the only non-Chinese brand in the top five smartphone sales charts in China, saw sales in the first 10-minutes on Tmall equal to seven-times its whole-day sales last year, after the US technology giant offered generous price cuts on its popular products, including the new iPhone 11, at this year’s shopping event.

    Chinese consumers collectively spent US$26.63 billion in the first 12 hours of Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping extravaganza, scooping up everything from consumer electronics to luxury items and even cars.

    The sales figures selectively announced by each smartphone brand only represents a portion of their total for the shopping festival. Besides Alibaba’s Tmall and the brands’ own platforms, rival sites such as JD.com, Suning.com and Pinduoduo are running their own Singles’ Day campaigns.

    Huawei further extended its dominance in the domestic market in the third-quarter of this year, eroding the market share of all other competitors amid an ongoing US technology ban which has seen Chinese consumers rally behind the brand. Huawei’s shipments in the latest quarter were equal to the combined shipments of the three other major Chinese brands Vivo, Oppo and Xiaomi, and eight times that of Apple’s 5.1 million iPhone quarterly sales in China, according to a Canalys report published in late October.

    In teaming up with each e-commerce platform, the smartphone brands have introduced various incentives, including direct price cuts, cash rebates and subsidies. Consumers can also participate in interactive games on the online shopping platforms to earn bigger discounts and cash allowances to use when shopping this year.

  • Singles’ Day deals are more complicated, but shoppers are undeterred

    Alibaba’s big shopping event broke sales records despite user complaints of spending more time collecting “meow coins” and calculating deposit returns

    Every November 11, millions of Chinese internet users are glued to their smartphones as they try to get the best deals of the year on snacks, groceries and electronic devices. But shopping during the world’s largest online shopping event isn’t as easy as it used to be.

    Many shoppers have taken to social media to discuss the increasing complexity in getting the best Singles’ Day discounts. On Tmall, Alibaba’s Amazon-like platform that hosts big merchants and established brands, many items now require multiple steps for users to get the discounts they want.

    Some vendors ask users to pay deposits days before November 11 with the promise that the value of deposits will increase when users make the purchase. So a 20 yuan (US$2.85) deposit, for instance, might count as 40 yuan (US$5.71) toward a purchase at checkout. Users can also redeem subsidies with their Tmall points, which they get from past purchases, and get coupons from individual shops.“I just wanted to save a little money while there’s a discount, but I feel like the money’s not even enough to cure my hair loss from calculating the discount,” one Zhihu user wrote in a comment with more than 1,000 upvotes.

    The question on Q&A site Zhihu asks what people think of this year’s Singles’ Day and why it’s getting more complicated. With nearly 1,200 responses and 4 million views, many of the most upvoted posts complain that the event has been growing more time consuming and that many deals aren’t worth the trouble.“It is said that the next Nobel Prize winner for mathematics is the CEO of Tmall,” joked a user on Weibo. “The reason he won is that the annual Double Eleven shopping spree significantly improved the math skills of a fifth of the world’s population.”

    Alibaba also tries to engage users with a mini game across its various apps. It lets users virtually open “meow shops,” spend time in the apps to earn “meow coins,” and invite other users to help upgrade their shops and earn red packets for shopping. (Tmall’s mascot is a cat because its Chinese name, Tian Mao, literally means sky cat.)

    “Ecommerce by its nature is a price-sensitive channel since it’s so easy to compare prices,” said Philip Wiggenraad, the head of research at Hong Kong-based digital retail consultancy Tofugear. “So having to jump through hoops will be regarded as hugely frustrating for consumers hoping to get those deals.”

    “That said, these ecommerce businesses know exactly what they are doing,” he added.

    Wiggenraad pointed out that the strategies from ecommerce companies work to their benefit. Deposits are meant to gauge demand ahead of time so vendors can prepare inventory accordingly, and some shops raise prices before the event so discounts seem bigger than they actually are, he said.

    Alibaba didn’t respond to our request for comment.However much users complain online, perplexing rules don’t seem to be hurting sales. By Monday afternoon, just over two thirds of the way into the day, Alibaba said shoppers broke last year’s sales record of 213.5 billion yuan (US$30.5 billion).

    “While complaints have been on the rise on social media, the reality is that this year’s Singles’ Day event will smash last year’s sales record, underlining that when it comes to bargains, most consumers are willing to go to considerable extremes,” Wiggenraad said.

  • 为什么周围的人看起来都比你有钱?

    论坛上的一个问题——“每个人看起来都很富有”是否“真的是债务堆出来的错觉”——吸引了各种各样的意见,但也有不少人表达了与评论者GeorgeC一样的看法。
    “我经常有这种郁闷,似乎我周围的每个人都很有钱,”他写道,并补充说,他常常感到不解,自己认识的那些收入与他不相上下的人,怎样买得起他买不起的东西。
    “说实话,有时候,这让我觉得自己有点儿笨,有时甚至觉得自己做的事情很失败,”他补充道。
    毫无疑问,大多数人都可以改进他们的财务处理方式。但更好的财务管理通常并非罪魁祸首:当一些人似乎能够负担得起比他们的收入所表明的多得多的东西时,这往往是因为他们有外人看不见的财富或债务。
    “财富甚至比收入更隐蔽,因为没有工作可以关联,”普林斯顿大学社会学教授道尔顿·康利(Dalton Conley)说。我们对教授或企业律师的收入有大致的概念,但“在家庭财富方面,我们毫无线索”。
    住在华盛顿地区的艾伦知道那种嫉妒和好奇的感觉。与其他在本文中谈论个人经历的人一样,艾伦要求不具名,只让记者用她的中间名,以便公开分享她对朋友消费习惯的私人想法。

    多年来,艾伦看着工作与自己类似、有同样数量孩子的朋友们,在几乎所有方面都比她家花钱更慷慨大方。他们花大钱扩建房子。他们外出度假的次数是她家的两倍,而且是去更远的地方。他们开更好的车。
    她曾对此有很不好的感受,认为自己和丈夫在财务管理上就是不如人家。
    “当我们不知道事情的全部时,我们陷入自责,”她说。
    后来,一切都崩溃了。原来这家人主要靠借债过日子。他们的房贷高于房子的价值,不得不把房子卖掉。他们现在住在租来的公寓里。
    “我确实觉得自己出了口气,”艾伦说。“我猜我们没做错什么。”
    当然,并不是所有看似在超前消费的人都在透支信用卡。

    莎伦(化名)住在纽约州的韦斯特切斯特县,亲戚为她的孩子支付了全部大学学费,还给这家人提供了其他的帮助。
    她不喜欢与人分享这一点,“有一些是因为我想保护丈夫的形象,不想让人知道他在靠贵人相助,”她说。“我也觉得很幸运,感觉不太公平。我觉得不舒服,但我很高兴能有这样的帮助。”
    普林斯顿大学社会学教授弗雷德里克·惠里(Frederick Wherry)认同这种观点。“当我们在生活中摸索前进的时候,有一件事有助于我们保护自己,那就是我们非常依赖保密,”他说。“我们确实在努力保护我们对自己的认识,以及别人对我们的认识。”
    我认同这种感觉。父母为我几个儿子的大学学费出了一份力,虽然在讨论大学费用时我可能会提到这件事,但我肯定不会强调它。我宁愿被视为一个自律、精明的人,能为儿子们八年的大学生活攒下几十万美元,也不愿被视为一个依赖父母帮助的人。所以我也是问题的一部分。
    人们不仅想淡化自己从家族继承的财富或金钱,“而且还积极地试图隐藏它,”康利说。“我们有种个人主义的意识形态,崇尚白手起家的男女。”
    从理论上讲,工作更努力和收入更高之间是有关联性的,威斯康星大学麦迪逊商学院(University of Wisconsin at Madison School of Business)市场营销学教授埃文·波尔曼(Evan Polman)说。“继承违反了这种相关性。”
    那么,有什么大不了呢?如果我们不知道邻居们新装修的钱是从哪儿来的呢?几乎没有人希望所有人的财务状况都是透明的。

    但这种保密会强化这样一种观念:只有个人的选择才能积累财富,而不是法律和政策,以及我们的国家历史。
    “这似乎是一个直截了当的文化问题,但在我们如何看待金钱保密及其后果方面,公共政策也在发挥作用,”身为尊严与债务网络(Dignity and Debt Network)主任的惠里说。人们需要理解其他人也处于类似的情况——为上大学、退休或医疗保险而苦苦挣扎——才能意识到这不是个人的失败,并且推动改革。

    “这就是我们需要解决的问题,”他说。“如果只是你自己的问题,那就什么都不会改变。”
    与低收入和中等收入社区相比,这些问题在富裕地区很可能会以不同的方式得到解决。在中低收入社区,“你可能更清楚邻居们的困境,”惠里说。“是的,我们需要自己负责任,但更多的是一种感觉,有些远远超出我个人能力范围的东西,正在影响着我们的生活。”
    “在工会化程度较高的国家,金钱方面的保密性可能在某种程度上有所不同,”康利说,“那里的工资更透明。”
    有人说,如果我们只看财富的表象,就会把注意力放在错误的事情上。如今的现实是,如果我们要羡慕邻居,不应该是为了他们的宝马车或新泳池。应该羡慕他们充足的退休金账户或优厚的医疗保险,因为有能力存下大量金钱,保障我们和孩子的将来,这才是如今真正的财富标志。
    最富有的1%的家庭也会有用于炫耀的支出,但是“真正让他们与众不同的,是他们的不显眼的消费支出,”南加州大学公共政策教授伊丽莎白·卡里德-霍尔基特(Elizabeth Currid-Halkett)说,她的书《积少成多:一个关于渴望出人头地的阶层的推论》(The Sum of Small Things: A Theory of the Aspirational Class)是一本分析美国人消费习惯的著作。
    在过去的几十年里,富人在教育和退休方面的支出增加了,而中产阶级在这些方面的支出基本保持不变。

    例如,在2014年,也就是卡里德-霍尔基特进行分析研究的最后一年,美国收入最高的1%的人——年收入至少34万美元——平均把总支出的6%用于教育。根据她的研究,这一比例自1996年以来显著上升。
    卡里德-霍尔基特说,中产阶级——2014年年收入在4万到6万美元之间的人群——只有大约1%的支出用于教育,这个数字在近20年里一直保持不变。
    高收入者大约20%的支出用于个人保险和养老金——2014年的年平均支出为3.25万美元——相比之下,中产阶级这方面支出不到4000美元,占8%左右。
    “富人消费模式的变化可能是当今美国阶级分化的最大标志,”她说。
    毫无疑问,有些人会嘲笑那些把自己和邻居比较的人,并且建议这样的人关注自己的生活就好。这是有道理的。但是好胜心和好奇心是人性的一部分。
    查尔斯(这是他的中名)住在大菲尼克斯地区,他说他对那些似乎一直在花钱却没有可见收入的朋友有着种种猜想。
    “他们做的事绝对能让我和妻子摸不着头脑,”他说。“我觉得我们的生活完全没问题。但我确实觉得,全国到处都是这种人,大家看了都会想:‘他们是怎么做到的?他们怎么能买得起呢?’”

  • 欧洲家庭储蓄率上升 恐削弱实施负利率的理据

    欧洲央行内部对于持续降息的看法分歧越来越大,对于那些支持收紧货币政策的决策官员而言,至少有一个指标似乎支持他们的论点,那就是:家庭储蓄率。

    鸽派官员,也就是支持利用宽松货币政策推动经济前进的官员认为,利率下滑将会阻却家庭储蓄,从而使家庭扩大消费及投资。

    然而随着利率走向负值,决策官员和投资人都开始质疑其效果是否有局限,因负利率可能让人对经济体质感到更加不安。负利率也意味着欧洲银行业成本升高,损及他们的放贷能力。

    如下图所示,自从欧洲央行在主权债务危机高峰期降息以来,欧盟家庭储蓄率与德国10年期公债收益率呈现同步下滑。但在过去两年,这样的趋势看来已经脱钩,尽管长期借贷成本跌至更深的负值区域,但储蓄率却是大幅走高。

    欧洲央行9月份将已然是负值的指标存款利率更进一步调降,此举明白暴露出央行内部日益加剧的分歧,以及一些政策委员表态抗拒。

    欧洲央行管委暨奥地利央行总裁霍尔茨曼(Robert Holzmann)周四称,欧洲央行应尽快升息,因负利率当前向储户发出了错误的信号。

    “这其实是发出信号,表明我们已经到了更多降息也无法发挥作用的阶段,”法国凯敏雅克资产管理董事总经理Didier Saint-Georges称。

  • 密码保护:未来一周可能主导全球市场的五大主题

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  • 中国10月新增贷款及社融远低预期 高通胀不足惧政策仍需保持定力

    中国10月新增信贷及社融双双大幅低于预期,其中10月新增信贷创下近两年新低,10月新增社融亦创逾三年新低。分析人士表示,尽管10月存在季节性因素,信贷结构中企业中长贷亦有所改善,但实体融资需求整体疲弱态势不改。

    他们认为,当前经济下行压力难言趋缓,通胀结构性高企并不会掣肘货币政策基调,且此前央行调降MLF利率亦态度明确,预计央行还将保持定力加大逆周期调控,包括LPR等在内定向工具料将持续发力助稳经济。

    “10月信贷数据不及预期,主要源于居民短期贷款大幅回落,或与当前严控资金流向房地产有关;但10月信贷数据也显示,企业中长期贷款同比延续增加,信贷整体结构持续改善,这与前期监管层引导银行信贷支持制造业相关,”东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为。

    交通银行金融研究中心分析师陈冀亦指出,10月信贷增量季节性特征明显,信贷增速略有回落但仍维持在合理的区间。当前稳健调控基调下,信贷、M2增速运行都相对平稳。

    “M1低位徘徊,社融弱于信贷,很大程度上反映出当前经济下行压力仍大的背景下,制约因素仍在于需求不足,”他认为。

    央行稍早公布,10月新增人民币贷款6,613亿元,低于此前8,000亿元的路透调查中值,创下2017年12月以来新低;当月末广义货币供应量(M2)同比增长8.4%,持平路透调查中值为8.4%。央行数据并显示,10月末人民币贷款余额150.59亿元,同比增长12.4%;路透调查中值为12.5%。

    央行同时公布数据显示,10月社会融资规模增量为6,189亿元人民币,远低于此前路透1万亿元的调查中值,创2016年7月以来最低,比上年同期少1,185亿元。

    王青并预计,总体上看,10月金融数据较弱,这或是央行11月下调MLF利率的一个直接原因。加之10月PMI收缩幅度扩大,意味着四季度经济下行压力不会明显减弱,预计央行货币政策将会加大逆周期调节力度,本月20日1年期LPR报价利率将恢复小幅下行态势,年底前后央行有可能再实施一次降准。

    央行公开市场上周二近等量续做4,000亿元人民币一年期中期借贷便利(MLF),并时隔逾三年半意外小幅下调利率5个基点。继美联储再次降息后,央行顺势调降MLF利率,助力降低实体企业融资成本提振经济,表明在稳增长和稳物价之间,央行更偏向稳增长。

    结构性货币政策料仍定力十足

    分析人士认为,10月金融数据整体疲弱,令货币政策大方向难以改变,不过考虑到通胀因素,预计结构性发力仍为未来主要基调。

    江南农商行资产负债管理部宏观负责人李苗献认为,结合之前公布的经济数据,第四季度中国经济增速仍然有持稳的可能性。货币政策大方向不会有改变,但是考虑到MLF利率下调了,估计这个月LPR也会下调。

    尽管当前通胀因素成为当前政策不能忽视的重要考量因素,但他们认为,这并不会制约逆周期调控的政策空间。

    “猪通胀已被充分预期,当前逆周期调节和降成本相对于猪通胀为更重要。预计年内LPR还有10BP左右下调空间。同时年内还可能继续有针对货币政策传导渠道进行修补的定向措施,如定向降准、TMLF和其它定向措施,”长城证券首席债券分析师吴金铎指出。

    猪肉价格大幅攀升令中国10月CPI同比涨幅大踏步走高,并超预期创下近八年新高,而PPI则在高基数和需求承压之下,跌幅进一步加深。分析师们认为,“剪刀差”扩大的局面仍将持续一段时间,短期内快速遏制猪肉上涨的难度较大,CPI将继续保持高位并有突破4%的可能。

    财通基金固收分析师郑良海也认为,结构性货币政策还将继续,一方面本月下调MLF利率5bp,LPR料继续下行,由此带动实体融资。另一方面,货币政策受通胀影响,亦不能出现放水节奏。

    “预计货币政策提高对稳增长的逆周期调节,调价不增量,”他指出。

  • 深圳放宽普通住宅界定标准 取消实际成交价限定要求

    多家本地媒体周一报导,一线城市–深圳市自2019年11月11日起,容积率在1.0以上、单套建筑面积在144㎡以下的房子为普通住宅,满两年可免征增值税。相比2015年的规定,此次删去了“实际成交价低于所在区域普通住房价格标准”的要求。

    南方日报援引深圳税务局称该消息属实,税务局人士指出,豪宅标准跟税务局没关系,解读口径由住建局负责。

    根据深圳市规划和国土资源委员会2015年发布的“享受优惠政策普通住房价格标准的通告”,享受优惠政策的普通住房,应当同时满足以下三个条件:住宅小区建筑容积率在1.0(含本数)以上;单套住房套内建筑面积120(含本数)平方米以下或者单套住房建筑面积144(含本数)平方米以下;实际成交价低于本通告规定的所在区域普通住房价格标准。

    举例来说,罗湖区的价格标准为390(含)万以下,福田、南山分别为470万和490万以下等。

    中原地产首席分析师张大伟指出,豪宅标准主要影响是税费,在深圳买二手房,除了首付款、契税、个税等费用,部分房子还需要缴纳“豪宅税”(实际为增值税与城市建设和教育附加税的总和)。这一标准的确过低,深圳按照2015年10月1日开始执行的《享受优惠政策普通住房价格标准》来区分普通住宅与非普通住宅,这导致了不少普通住宅被“豪宅化”。

    “不仅仅是深圳存这个问题,全国很多城市都有这个问题,普通住宅豪宅化,的确影响了市场的正常交易。”据其计算,非普通住宅标准过低,导致北京楼市86%住宅变成豪宅。

    他认为,调整该政策,有利于部分刚需项目,虽然可能带来市场的短期波动,但整体看,这也是属于市场化的政策调整。

    据国家统计局数据,深圳近两月房价延续涨势,尤其是9月新房房价涨幅扩大至1.2%,在70个大中城市中涨幅居前。

  • 日本7~9月机械订单减3.5%

    2019/11/11

    日本内阁府11月11日发布的机械订单统计显示,7~9月“不含船舶和电力的民间需求”订单额(经季节性因素调整后)为2.6223万亿日元,同比减少3.5%。非制造业的订单减少,时隔2个季度转为下降。截至9月,连续3个月订单减少,日本内阁府把机械订单的基调判断下调为“复苏趋势出现停滞”。

    7~9月的降幅与8月时的预期(减少6.1%)相比较小。详细观察发现,制造业订单减少0.9%,非制造业订单减少7.3%。在非制造业方面,上季度因铁路车辆等大宗订单出现2位数高增长,本次出现了报复性减少。外需增长6.8%,时隔3个季度增长。

    从9月单月来看,民间需求(不含船舶和电力)的机械订单额为8502亿日元,比8月减少2.9%,连续3个月减少。日本内阁府认为,“初春以来持续上涨的趋势已经改变”,把基调判断在截至8月的“能看到复苏迹象”的基础上下调。自2018年12月以来、时隔9个月首次下调。

  • 德国经济之痛恐怕短时间好不了

    作为欧洲的经济增长引擎,德国经济的放缓原本被认为只是转瞬即逝的,很快就能反弹。

    但实际情况却是,德国经济卡在不增不降已有一年之久,而且好转希望越来越小,还大有将持续经济阴霾扩散至整个欧洲之虞。

    德国整体工业陷入衰退,这归咎于消费者趋势转变、中国经济再平衡以及全球贸易战。投资支出在萎缩,投资者信心在减弱,就业机会停滞不前,生产力增长看来已转为下滑。

    雪上加霜的是,曾被认为是一次性因素不幸同时发生的事,却被证明是存在更深层次的结构性问题,将导致德国乃至整个欧元区未来10年都将持续疲软。

    德国第三季GDP数据定于11月14日公布,预计将证实德国陷入衰退的担忧。不管实际数值是像路透调查预测的那样下降0.1%,还是仅仅显示持平,都不会改变大局。

    “德国可能仍处于国内生产总值(GDP)温和增长和小幅下滑之间的区域,”德国商业银行分析师Jörg Krämer表示。“一旦经济滑坡结束,也不大可能出现强劲的经济复苏…德国出口行业将在很长一段时间内受挫。”

    结构性缺陷

    德国独立的经济专家委员会几天前发出了类似的悲观讯息:好日子已经结束,是时候进行改革了。

    由五名成员组成的经济专家委员会称,德国在采用新技术方面进展缓慢,投资低迷,创办新企业的门槛太高。该委员会成员包括即将成为欧洲央行执委的施纳贝尔(Isabel Schnabel)。

    德国人口迅速老龄化导致生产率增长低迷:因为就业市场收缩、熟练工人难以获得,即使在经济低迷期,企业也会囤积劳动力,担心在经济反弹时招聘遇阻。

    银行业对经济也几乎没有帮助。德国银行业的运营成本在欧元区是最高的,第二季整体股东权益报酬率(ROE)为零。

    这是一个问题,因为当经济放缓时,银行会限制放贷以节省资本,从而加剧经济衰退。而且鉴于收入已然疲弱,它们不大可能支撑经济。

    “银行盈利能力低对金融稳定构成风险,因为这…提供了承担过度风险的激励,”该委员会称。

    在这种环境下,刺激政策可能及时出台,但不大可能有太多刺激措施。

    欧洲央行已经尽其所能地降低借贷成本。实际上,德国央行估计,在截至今年年初的十年内,德国政府节省了3,680亿欧元借贷成本。

    德国政府可以将这些节省下来的资金用于提高支出。但德国执着于预算平衡,采取大规模财政刺激在政治上是不可接受的。德国是欧洲债务水平最低的国家之一。

    德国政府长久来对要求其大幅增加支出的呼声颇为抗拒,称面对人口老龄化问题需要增加储蓄,而且弹药必须留到真正爆发危机时再动用。

    不管怎样,基础设施投资激增将带来问题,因为建筑行业已经在满负荷运转,所以无法吸收更多资金。

    这种糟糕前景不会自动导致其他经济体经济转差。周五出炉的数据显示,德国9月出口增幅创近两年最高,带来了一线希望。不过德国是多数欧盟国家的头号贸易伙伴,其价值链延伸至国境之外很远。

    确实,当欧盟执委会稍早大幅调低对德国2020年经济增长的预估时,也降低了对多数欧盟国家的经济预估。

    正如欧盟执委会所说的那样,欧盟目前正处于十字路口:经济可能进入衰退,长时期的低增长更是雪上加霜;经济也可能找到出路展开反弹,但眼下这被认为是最不可能的结果。

    经济的最终走向在很大程度上取决于德国。

    关注特朗普及鲍威尔

    除了德国GDP数据以外,美国总统特朗普就是否对欧盟汽车征收进口关税问题的决定也将是关注焦点。

    分析师称,这项决定基本上就是要确定是否对进口自欧盟的汽车额外加征关税。

    增加汽车进口关税可能会招致欧盟立即实施报复,从而导致全球贸易战进一步升级。

    美联储主席鲍威尔也可能成为关注焦点,因为他将在周三围绕美国经济形势在国会发表证词陈述。

    就在几天前,美联储进行年内第三次降息,鲍威尔不太可能偏离他最近所传递的讯息,即暗示的暂停进一步宽松举措。

    鲍威尔表示,只要公布的经济信息符合美联储预期,美联储就将按兵不动,市场把这一信号解读为,未来一段时间内美联储都会维持政策不变,就像欧洲央行一样。

  • Chinese consumers spend US$22 billion in first nine hours of Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping event

    Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind

    Chinese consumers collectively spent 158.31 billion yuan (US$22.63 billion) in the first nine hours of Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping extravaganza, scooping up everything from consumer electronics to luxury items and even cars. The figure is two thirds of last year’s final tally of US$30.8 billion.

    Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind. The festival will be closely watched this year as a barometer for consumer sentiment 16 months into a US-China trade war and amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

    While the company’s e-commerce marketplaces Tmall and Taobao are traditionally the mainstays of the annual shopping extravaganza, this year’s festival will also include business-to-business e-commerce platforms like AliExpress as well as Lazada, Alibaba’s Southeast Asian e-commerce subsidiary, as the company taps international consumers.

    Alibaba Group Holding is the parent company of the South China Morning Post.

    Hong Kong, the US, the UK, Australia and Japan were among the top overseas buyers in early business. At the open, the top 5 regions in mainland China in terms of transactions were Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Shandong.

    Opening sales were brisk, hitting US$10 billion in just under 30 minutes, half the time from the previous year.

    GMV for the Double 11 Global Shopping Festival is the total value of orders settled through Alipay on Alibaba’s consumer-facing core commerce platforms, as well as Lazada and AliExpress, within a 24-hour period on November 11. It is reported on a real-time basis and includes shipping charges paid, according to Alibaba.

    Apart from Alibaba, rival sites such as JD.com and Pinduoduo have also launched their own Singles’ Day campaigns, to entice buyers to spend on their platforms.

    “Singles’ Day is becoming more recognised worldwide … but since it is still very much a domestic holiday and event, it is a true test of Chinese consumer power,” said Benson Ng, EY Greater China digital advisory leader.

    Singles’ Day got its name from its date. Written numerically as 11/11, the date looks like “bare branches”, a Chinese expression for the single and unattached. As a kind of antidote to the societal pressures of being in a relationship, many of China’s singles began splurging on themselves on Singles’ Day, which became seen as a type of anti-Valentine’s Day.

    Alibaba held its first Singles’ Day shopping event in 2009 as a promotional campaign, but these days it has morphed into a show of China’s collective consumer spending power. Last year, consumers spent 4,000 times more than they did during the first ever Singles’ Day event.

    Ahead of this year’s shopping extravaganza, consumers seemed to be as eager as ever to snap up deals. Prior to the beginning of the festival on Monday, 64 brands, including Apple, Dyson, Lancome and L’Oreal, had already achieved 100 million yuan in pre-orders, Alibaba said.

    Eager consumers also snapped up over 15,000 bottles of Kim Kardashian’s KKW Fragrance perfume, after the reality TV superstar conducted a live-streaming session on Tmall last Thursday to promote the brand.

    A recent survey by management consulting firm Oliver Wyman showed that over 50 per cent of consumers plan to spend more during this year’s Singles’ Day festival than last year, with an expected 10 per cent increase in spending.

    “Singles’ Day continues to maintain robust momentum among consumers, with over 60 per cent being more excited about this year’s festival than they were last year,” the company said in a press release. Some 60 per cent of respondents also indicated that they planned to buy imported products despite the ongoing trade war.

    Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics affiliate, has an inventory of 500 million tons of goods, ready to be dispatched to consumers shopping on Singles’ Day. On this day each year, Alibaba pushes its technology and services, such as its cloud computing systems, to the limit.

    This year, consumers in China’s less-developed areas and smaller cities are expected to help drive sales, according to PwC China consumer markets leader Jennifer Ye.

    Consumers in China’s lower-tier cities, such as Guilin, Luoyang and Sanya, demonstrate a higher “willingness to pay” when compared with those in more affluent cities like Xiamen and Zhuhai, as people in smaller Chinese cities increasingly seek an upgrade in their quality of life and experience, according to PwC’s Global Consumer Insights Survey 2019 China Report.

    Singles’ Day has also evolved from a day of massive sales to one that merges both consumption and entertainment. Each year, Alibaba holds a massive concert the day before Singles’ Day, inviting international superstars such as Mariah Carey and acts like Cirque du Soleil to perform in front of thousands, while live-streaming the concert to millions of viewers across the country.

    This year’s concert featured Taylor Swift, just months after performing at a similar Prime Day concert for Amazon in the US, as well as Chinese pop stars such as G.E.M. and TFBoys’ Jackson Yee.

  • 日本废旧瓦楞纸对中国出口大减 价格下跌

    作为瓦楞纸原料的废纸的日本国内价格出现下跌。由于最大出口目的地中国因环保等原因加强进口限制,同时中美贸易摩擦导致中国经济减速,日本的废纸对华出口急剧减少。目前日本的废纸库存正在接近批发商的保管极限。以废纸为原料的瓦楞纸原纸的价格下行压力或将加强。

    目前废纸批发商向回收业者买入废旧瓦楞纸的价格为1公斤6~9日元,比上月下降约1日元。时隔约5个月下跌,比年初下跌4成,创出2013年8月以来的新低。瓦楞纸的副原料杂志废纸为5~6日元,废报纸为8~10日元,价格区间的高点下跌1日元。

    日本5月对中国仅出口7万6350吨废旧瓦楞纸,与2018年7月相比减少约6成。

    中国政府为加强环保,2018年3月起把进口废纸包含的杂质上限从1.5%降至0.5%。政府向各造纸公司分配的进口授权配额也呈现缩小态势。此外,由于中美贸易摩擦,中国的对美出口减少,产品的捆包用瓦楞纸需求减少。由于中国国内的造纸公司减产,成为原料的废纸需求也持续低迷。

    日本的废旧瓦楞纸
     

    在中国购买意愿高涨的2018年夏季,日本废旧瓦楞纸的出口价格曾一度超过1公斤30日元,但目前维持在低于10日元的状况。有废纸批发商的社长表示,“为了保持国内的供需平衡,不得不赔本出口”,难以掩饰危机感。

    此外,日本国内造纸公司的库存也在不断增加。4月存在十连休前的抢搭末班车需求,如今报复性下滑正在出现。有废纸回收批发商表示,“自本月起,造纸公司的订单或将减少”。

    有废纸批发商的社长认为,日本的“造纸公司和废纸批发商的库存能力预计最多为145万吨,6月底或已达到上限”。

    废旧瓦楞纸的价格下跌将给瓦楞纸原纸带来降价压力。日本联合造纸(Rengo)等以物流费上涨等为由,自2018秋季起相继提出涨价,瓦楞纸箱在2019年春季也出现涨价。

    但如果废纸价格持续低迷,日本的瓦楞纸原纸和纸板的价格将难以维持。

  • 中国限制进口,日本废纸出口价降至1/6

    中国的环保限制正在动摇日本的废纸回收系统。过去大量进口日本废纸的中国提出废物零进口目标,限制进口。无处可去的废纸充斥日本国内。日本尝试开拓销路,向东南亚出口,但是并非易事。在全球性经济减速的背景下,日本以出口为前提的资源循环迎来拐点。

    “已经没地方放了”,东京废纸批发商栗原纸材的新田事业所将瓦楞纸板等废纸压缩成捆,一捆一吨重,现在已经积压了3000捆,是一般情况下的6倍。仓库已经放不下,从5月开始堆放在室外。这是自发生东日本大地震的2011年以来首次出现这种情况。

    栗原纸材新田事业所的部分废纸放在室外(左后方)

    日本国内废纸批发商和造纸企业的废旧瓦楞纸板(废纸板)等的合计库存能力被认为在145万吨,据废纸批发商的高管表示,“(目前的库存)已经接近9成”。由关东地区的废纸批发商组成的关东制纸原料直纳商工组合截至9月的瓦楞纸板库存量达3.3万吨,膨胀至2018年的近3倍。

    库存增加的最大原因是中国在2018年6月提出2020年底之前实现固体废物零进口目标,开始减少进口。2018年,日本的废纸出口量为380万吨,其中对中国的出口量为274万吨,占到7成多。日本古纸再生促进中心的统计显示,日本国内废纸总回收量的13%被中国吸收。

    从2000年前后开始,日本的废纸一直处于回收量超过国内再利用量的情况。这是因为企业和居民的回收意识增强以及自治体采取了积极回收等措施。日本通过把国内用不完的废纸出口海外的方法来维持再循环的机制。

    当前,日本的造纸企业以高于出口价的价格购买废纸,支撑回收系统。不过据纸业专门商社的高管表示,“如果出口情况持续低迷,国内造纸企业下调买价的话,废纸回收系统可能崩溃”。

    日本的废纸批发商和商社将加紧开拓东南亚等中国以外的出口目的地。但是,印度尼西亚等与中国一样加强了环保限制,能否增加废纸出口存在不确定性。

    此外,出口价格也持续下跌。在出口情况良好的2018年秋季,废纸价格一度达到1公斤30日元以上,现在则下跌至5日元左右。为了削减日本国内库存,不得不亏本出口。关东制纸原料直纳商工组合也因为亏损,连续6个月暂停废纸出口。

    在日本国内,随着网购的普及,配送用的纸箱需求出现增加,但主要用于装果蔬和饮料。仅靠这一需求无法消化多余的废纸。受中美贸易摩擦影响,包装和运输汽车零部件等产品的纸箱需求也显著减少,能够减少日本国内废纸库存的因素减少。

    此外,受19号台风等接连发生的灾害影响,日本的果蔬出货陷入停滞,用于生产纸箱原纸的需求也放缓。一方面,由于从中国等地进口果蔬来弥补日本国内供应量的减少,海外制造的包装用纸箱也成为废纸,导致废纸越来越多。

    废纸板的价格从年初开始下跌了4成以上,跌至1公斤6.5日元左右。由于盈利状况恶化,有的企业开始停止回收,此外,据废纸批发商高管表示,“关东和中部地区的中小企业部分开始出现逆有偿” (注:日本的废物处理方式中,将废物作为原材料有偿出售时,废物排出方要支付运输费用,如果运输费用高于出售收益,即为“逆有偿”)。

    由于价格下跌,有的地区自治体的回收奖金出现减少,还出现了居民停止集体回收的情况。废纸批发商的高管警惕称,“如果废纸被作为垃圾扔掉,自治体的垃圾处理费用将进一步增加”。

  • Bitcoin is not real, and any purchase amounts to speculation, says ECB’s ex-chief as he pours cold water on cryptocurrency

    • “The [crypto]currency itself is not real, with the characteristics that a currency must have,” said the European Central Bank’s former president Jean-Claude Trichet, at Caixin’s conference in Beijing
    • An alternative monetary tool to existing currencies is the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) by the International Monetary Fund, Trichet said

    The European Central Bank’s former president Jean-Claude Trichet said he is doubtful that cryptocurrencies can ever become the future of money, becoming the latest monetary authority to pour cold water on the simmering technology that seeks to disrupt and disintermediate global central banks from their control of currencies.

    “I am strongly against bitcoin, and I think we are a little complacent,” Trichet said during a panel discussion at Caixin’s 10th annual conference on Sunday in Beijing. “The [crypto]currency itself is not real, with the characteristics that a currency must have.”

    Buying a cryptocurrency is “in many respects pure speculation,” said Trichet, who led the ECB from 2003 to 2011, after a decade as governor of the Bank of France. “Even if [the cryptocurrency] is supposed to be based on underlying assets, I am observing a lot of speculation. It is not healthy.”

    Trichet’s comment echoes the concern shared by global central banks about the threat posed by cryptocurrencies, for their decentralisation of traditional currencies, disruption of the global financial system and hindrance to monetary authorities in controlling the value of money. The ECB’s board member Benoit Soeure went as far in September as warning that cryptocurrencies could “challenge the supremacy of the US dollar,” in a report on CNBC.

    At the summit, the 76-year-old French economist said he was also “very much against” Libra, a cryptocurrency project proposed by Facebook in June. Originally announced alongside a list of corporate backers, the social media site has faced scrutiny over entering the financial services space causing firms like Visa, MasterCard and PayPal to pull support in October.

    Cryptocurrencies are decentralised digital currencies, traded without a central bank or administrator. Transactions between users, without the traditional middle man, are recorded in a digital ledger of blockchain.

    China has taken a tough stance against cryptocurrencies. China’s central bank and financial regulators in September 2017 banned initial coin offerings (ICOs), in which companies could raise funds by issuing digital tokens, or coins. Local trading platforms were shut, and access to all domestic and foreign platforms related to cryptocurrency trading and ICOs were blocked in February 2018, in attempts to quash the market.

    Chinese banks are barred from handling bitcoin or any cryptocurrency, although individuals are not barred from holding them. China hosts some of the world’s largest bitcoin and cryptocurrency mines.

    Bitcoin is the world’s first, and most popular cryptocurrency, founded in 2009 by an unknown developer known as – what’s commonly thought to be a pseudonym – Satoshi Nakamoto. The value of bitcoin has swung from US$0.003 in March 2010 to a record US$20,000 at the end of 2017, before crashing the following year, now trading at around US$8,800 each.Nevertheless, some central banks like Sweden’s Riksbank are embracing technology, seeking to create digital versions of their currencies to cater for the explosive growth of e-payment and cashless remittance platforms. The People’s Bank of China is poised to roll out a digital currency that can be used across major payment platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay – not to be confused with a cryptocurrency – while the Bank of England’s Mark Carney has also proposed a digital reserve currency.

    A monetary tool that Trichet prefers is the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose value is pegged to the US dollar, the euro, the pound sterling, the renminbi and the yen.

    “I have great doubts of keeping control of monetary value in [the cryptocurrency] domain,” said Trichet. “In the so-called new stable international currencies … the SDR would be the right basket.”

    The world may be moving away from physical coins and notes, but that path may not be in the direction of cryptocurrency, Trichet said.

    “We are already in a domain which has much less physical currency,” he said. “Whether we are in a domain where that will be replaced with crypto? I have doubts there.”

  • The King’s Chinese: how Penang’s ‘Grand Old Man’ Yeap Chor Ee went from penniless barber to one of Asia’s richest men

    • Chinese migrant Yeap Chor Ee became one of Malaya’s most prominent men
    • His story is being told for the first time by his great-granddaughter

    When Yeap Chor Ee left his hometown in southern China in 1885 to seek his fortune in Southeast Asia – then known as Nanyang, or the southern seas – he was just one of 125,000 people fleeing a land struck by famine and rebellion.By the time of his death in May 1952, Yeap had become one of the most prominent men in pre-independence Malaya and the richest man in the northern state of Penang, his name synonymous with philanthropy and real estate.

    The King’s Chinese , written by Yeap’s great-granddaughter Daryl Yeap, 49, traces the tale of Penang’s “Grand Old Man”, from his start as a penniless, illiterate barber to one of the most successful tycoons in Asia, against the backdrop of migration and the birth of a nation.

    “I thought it would make more sense to write about the whole community rather than just one man, so the book is about the story of the Straits Chinese, using my great-grandfather as a vehicle,” Yeap said.

    The book details the life of Yeap Chor Ee, from his marriages – one wife back in China to look after the ancestral home, and three in Penang, who combined would have 10 children – to his early days as an itinerant barber saving money to start Ban Hin Lee, his first shop with his business partner Oei Tiong Ham, another prominent Chinese businessman from Indonesia.

    As his business boomed and his wealth grew, Yeap started Ban Hin Lee Bank in 1918, the first locally owned bank in Penang to serve the Chinese community. Along with other locally incorporated banks, it was the precursor to a stable financial structure for Malaya.

    In 2000, under a government-initiated banking consolidation plan, Ban Hin Lee Bank was acquired by Southern Bank. The latter then merged with several other banks to form the CIMB Group, which today operates mainly in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand.

    The King’s Chinese also paints a picture of Penang society during the late 19th century. The port town, first colonised by Captain Francis Light for the British East India Company, was a “free for all, cowboy town”, Yeap said.

    Chinese migrants began to congregate en masse on the island after the United States implemented the Chinese Exclusion Act in 1882.

    “It had an open economy where anyone could open a business. There was no standardised currency, people were trading with Mexican, Peruvian, Japanese currency,” she said.

    This wave of migrants became the basis of what Penang is today, with a majority Chinese population on the island side of the state, and a majority Malay population in Seberang Prai on the Malaysian Peninsula.

    Men worked in whatever jobs they were skilled at, many as indentured labourers, until they could pay off their passage from China. Women were less fortunate, Daryl Yeap said. Only 2 per cent of the new migrants were women, some as young as 10 sold by their parents or kidnapped to become prostitutes in Penang and elsewhere.

    If the girls contracted a disease, the pimp would lose money, and the girls were to blameDaryl Yeap

    Regulations to protect women were scarce, with only the 1888 Women and Girls Protection Ordinance setting the age of consent at 10, which was raised to 13 three years later.

    “If the girls contracted a disease, the pimp would lose money, and the girls were to blame,” said Yeap.

    “The rules were always being changed to suit men.”

    The fate of migrant women was especially alarming when contrasted with that of Yeap Chor Ee’s fourth and youngest wife, Lee Cheng Kin, Yeap said. Lee was educated, rare for women of the time, and in her elder years was fondly called “the old lady”.

    At first, Lee was reluctant to marry Yeap Chor Ee, 30 years her senior, but soon became his assistant due to her ability to read. She eventually became the matriarch of the Yeap clan and looked after both the business and the household. “Considering that [before] Chor Ee died he made her chairwoman of the bank and passed the household to her, and the extremely chauvinist Yeap ‘Kongsi’ [clan house] made her the chairwoman, it was a big difference [to other women],” she said.

    As Yeap Chor Ee approached 80 years of age, his estate, including property and banking assets, was estimated to be worth 100 million Malayan dollars, the equivalent of US$463 million today.

    The implementation of estate duty by the British government in 1940 to fund the Second World War caused great panic among rich Straits Chinese, whose large coffers would have been a huge windfall for the colonial government.

    In response, Yeap set up two trusts, one of which would leave the family home in Penang, Homestead, and other properties to charity, and the other to provide for his descendants. He also donated 250,000 Malayan dollars to set up the University of Malaya, the first higher education establishment to have university status in the country.

    Homestead, a mansion by the sea along the northeast coast of Penang island, was entrusted to an education foundation in 2006 and is now the campus of the Wawasan Open University.

    But the extent of his charity work remained unknown to the rest of the family until his great-granddaughter Yeap started researching the book in 2008. While her research took 11 years to complete and included trips to Singapore, Britain, China and even Myanmar, where Yeap Chor Ee owned a rice mill, Yeap said she was excited every time she unearthed new information.

  • Chinese-born Philippine billionaire John Gokongwei Jnr, founder of Cebu Air, dies aged 93

    • Gokongwei was born in Fujian but grew up to become one of the Philippines’ wealthiest businessmen, building a fortune worth US$3.4 billion
    • One of the tycoon’s most recent successes was the steady ascent of Cebu Air, a carrier he founded in 1996 with only four aircraft

    John Gokongwei Jnr, a Philippine billionaire who built a business empire spanning from banking, retail to aviation, has died. He was 93.

    Gokongwei died late on Saturday evening “surrounded by his loved ones” at the Manila Doctor’s Hospital, his son Lance Gokongwei said in a statement, referring to the tycoon by the nickname he’s affectionately known as, “Mr John”. He is survived by his wife, six children and at least 12 grandchildren.

    Born in Fujian, China, and raised in Cebu province in the Philippines, Gokongwei started working in his early teenage years after his father died, riding his bike to sell peanuts and knick knacks in neighbouring towns across the island to provide for his five siblings. That laid the foundation for a business acumen that helped build a US$3.4 billion fortune, making him one of the country’s wealthiest people.

    He eventually set his sights farther, travelling two weeks by sea and six hours by land each time to peddle rubber tires in Manila. With the money he saved, Gokongwei went into cornstarch production, predicting nascent industries like food, paper and textiles would need raw materials. The corn mill become the foundation of Universal Robina – today a 333.9 billion peso (US$6.6 billion) snacks, sweets and beverage business operating in six countries across Asia.

    Aside from building a line-up of home-grown products like Jack N’ Jill chips and C2 tea drinks, Universal Robina has also gone offshore to acquire Consolidated Snacks, which owns Snack Brands Australia, and New Zealand-based biscuits maker Griffin’s Foods.

    One of the tycoon’s most recent successes was the steady ascent of Cebu Air, a carrier he founded in 1996 with only four aircraft. It endured a difficult start with a plane crash that killed 104 people and struggled against flag carrier Philippine Airlines.

    Its low-cost model allowed it to tap burgeoning travel demand in the country and the region. Not only did it eventually surpass its rival to become the country’s largest domestic carrier, its passenger count is poised to increase tenfold by this year to a record 23 million.

    The tycoon has said he’s had seven near-death experiences. He was known for drinking Chinese tea every morning and his favourite museums include the Louvre and the Metropolitan Museum of Art.

    Long before his death, the late billionaire has handed over the reins to his son Lance, who heads his key companies.

  • Chinese consumers spend US$1 billion in first minute of Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping event

    Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind

    Chinese consumers collectively spent US$1 billion in just over one minute in Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping extravaganza, scooping up everything from consumer electronics, luxury items and even cars just after the clock struck midnight.

    Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind. Last year, consumers splurged a record US$30.8 billion in just one day, and the festival will be closely watched this year as a barometer for consumer sentiment 16 months into a US-China trade war and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

    Alibaba is the parent company of the South China Morning Post.

    While the company’s e-commerce marketplaces Tmall and Taobao are traditionally the mainstays of the annual shopping extravaganza, this year’s festival will also include business-to-business e-commerce platforms like AliExpress as well as Lazada, Alibaba’s Southeast Asian e-commerce subsidiary, as the company taps international consumers.

    Apart from Alibaba, rival sites such as JD.com and Pinduoduo have also launched their own Singles’ Day campaigns, to entice buyers to spend on their platforms.

    “Singles’ Day is becoming more recognised worldwide … but since it is still very much a domestic holiday and event, it is a true test of Chinese consumer power,” said Benson Ng, EY Greater China digital advisory leader.

    Singles’ Day got its name from its date. Written numerically as 11/11, the date looks like “bare branches”, a Chinese expression for the single and unattached. As a kind of antidote to the societal pressures of being in a relationship, many of China’s singles began splurging on themselves on Singles’ Day, which became seen as a type of anti-Valentine’s Day.

    Alibaba held its first Singles’ Day shopping event in 2009 as a promotional campaign, but these days it has morphed into a show of China’s collective consumer spending power. Last year, consumers spent 4,000 times more than they did during the first ever Singles’ Day event.

    Ahead of this year’s shopping extravaganza, consumers seemed to be as eager as ever to snap up deals. Prior to the beginning of the festival on Monday, 64 brands, including Apple, Dyson, Lancome and L’Oreal, had already achieved 100 million yuan in pre-orders, Alibaba said.

    Eager consumers also snapped up over 15,000 bottles of Kim Kardashian’s KKW Fragrance perfume, after the reality TV superstar conducted a live-streaming session on Tmall last Thursday to promote the brand.

    A recent survey by management consulting firm Oliver Wyman showed that over 50 per cent of consumers plan to spend more during this year’s Singles’ Day festival than last year, with an expected 10 per cent increase in spending.

    “Singles’ Day continues to maintain robust momentum among consumers, with over 60 per cent being more excited about this year’s festival than they were last year,” the company said in a press release. Some 60 per cent of respondents also indicated that they planned to buy imported products despite the ongoing trade war.

    Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics affiliate, has an inventory of 500 million tons of goods, ready to be dispatched to consumers shopping on Singles’ Day. On this day each year, Alibaba pushes its technology and services, such as its cloud computing systems, to the limit.

    This year, consumers in China’s less-developed areas and smaller cities are expected to help drive sales, according to PwC China consumer markets leader Jennifer Ye.

    Consumers in China’s lower-tier cities, such as Guilin, Luoyang and Sanya, demonstrate a higher “willingness to pay” when compared with those in more affluent cities like Xiamen and Zhuhai, as people in smaller Chinese cities increasingly seek an upgrade in their quality of life and experience, according to PwC’s Global Consumer Insights Survey 2019 China Report.

  • 马股本周或破1620点

    2019年11月10日

    国家银行下调法定储备率(SRR)至3%,提振银行股情绪,带动马股上周一度逼近1615点水平,分析员认为,若中美贸易战“休兵”协商进展良好,则马股本周有望冲上1620点水平。

    Inter Pacific研究主管冯廷秀接受电访时说,国行上周五的这项宣布大幅提振银行股,连带也将富时隆综指推上1614.19点的一周高位。

    “马股临尾虽回吐涨幅,未能收在1610点水平,但市场的整体投资情绪已然获得提振,而调低法定储备率的效应料能继续支撑马股走势。”

    国行上周五宣布,为确保本地金融体系有足够的流动资金,下修法定储备率50个基点至3%,将于本月16日生效。

    他披露,马股本周的首道支撑点落在1606点;而首道阻力点则在1616点,下一道落在1619点。

    “上周一度逼近1615点,且周五闭市更是上升股多过下跌股,从这样的走势来看,马股本周很大可能会冲破1616点水平,朝1620点迈进。”

    而马股上周走势稳定,全周在1595点至1614点间游走,于周一成功攀上1600点关卡,随后的4个交易日则稳健攀高,周五闭市收在1609.73点;相比前周的1593.34点,劲起16.39点或1.03%。

    投资者趋谨慎

    冯廷秀认为,马股周五未能冲破1610点,主要是投资者对中美贸易战“休兵”协商仍存忧虑,故选择在周末来临前套利。

    “纵观东南亚股市,当中的印尼、泰国及我国都力争收高,其他股市都告跌,显示投资者因担心中美贸易战停火协商或在周末迎来变数。”

    另一方面,奕丰(iFAST)分析员陈威颖指出,中国、美国及我国本周将陆续公布重大经济数据,投资者或趋向谨慎交易。

    “我国本周将公布失业率、工业生产数据,及第三季国内生产总值(GDP),而中国及美国也将公布消费者物价指数(CPI)、工业生产指数、零售数据等,这些都会影响未来的市场走向。”

    第三季财报牵制走势

    马股第三季企业财报未来两周将是重头戏,若能有超出市场预期的表现,将可大大提振股市。

    冯廷秀指出,这关乎投资者能否持续充满信心。

    “当然,部分企业的财报还是会令人失望,但若多数都能交出好成绩,自然能带动投资者信心,马股也能向好。”

    但若企业财报不如预期,投资者也无需惊慌失措,他指出,毕竟截至9月的财报期,仍是触底的过程。

    “投资者无需因为这一次的企业财报不佳就失去希望,末季的财报表现还有希望。”

    谈及企业财报,陈威颖认为,这才是真正支撑马股走势的关键。

    “只有经济好转,企业获利才会改善。而企业财报若有所改善,则会促使市场调整马股的预估,我们仍看好,马股今年的表现将胜过去年。”

    短期可持种植股

    市场仍存隐忧,分析员建议,投资者现阶段布局投资,可关注科技、油气、保健及公用事业领域。

    冯廷秀指出,科技股仍是市场焦点,而油气股近来表现也亮眼。

    “若是短线投资,建议可关注种植领域。因原棕油价格回扬,现在约在每吨2400令吉,相信棕油业者末季的财报或有好消息,投资者或可关注。”

    而陈威颖披露,若投资者想长期布局,则可关注能抵抗经济衰退的领域,比如保健及公用事业。

    “无论经济如何变,但医疗保健需求仍在,而这个领域最大的风险则是政府的政策,不过依旧会拨款发展国家医疗保健。”

    至于公用事业领域,他建议,可关注拥有稳定现金流,且有派息的股项。

    本周利好

    ●企业财报转佳

    ●国内经济好转

    本周利淡

    ●中美贸易协商变数

    ●企业财报逊色

    ●美联储货币政策未明

    注意事项

    ●11日:大马9月失业率、大马9月PPI、英国第三季GDP

    ●13日:英国10月CPI、美国10月CPI、中国10月PPI

    ●14日:英国10月零售销售、美国10月PPI

    ●15日:大马第三季GDP出炉、欧元区10月CPI、美国10月零售销售

  • 柔房产迎来催化剂

    柔新捷运系统计划原订在2024年12月竣工,每小时载客量高达1万名乘客。(示意图)

    柔州人引颈长盼下,我国首相敦马哈迪医生日前终于宣布,将会继续柔新捷运系统(RTS)计划,无论如何,马新两国也会再次检讨和预计需要数月时间来签署双边协议。

    已6 度展延的该计划,“千呼万唤始出来,犹抱琵琶半遮面”,最终有了定案,也让好多国内外的房产投资者放下心头大石,皆大欢喜!

    正值国人在新山的碧雅湾(Senibong Cove),望着那一片美不胜收的游艇停靠的风景线当儿,开始憧憬未来的退休生活,从这里开车7分钟到武吉查卡站(Bukit Cagar),乘搭捷运到新加坡兀兰(Woodlands)站,从而避开那时常动弹不得的新柔长堤车龙,心想终于可实现新柔两地快速往返生活圈了。

    这次的宣布没正式交代几时开始动工及竣工,但至少拍板铁定了这计划将继续。据了解,这4公里长的柔新捷运系统计划原订在2024年12月竣工,每小时载客量高达1万名乘客,主要目的是纾缓及解决马新两国日常交通堵塞问题。

    坦白说,我真是难以想象若要终止这项计划,我国政府得需赔偿约2亿令吉给新加坡。另一个亮点是,这项工程建造费用预料将从49亿3000万令吉,减至31亿6000万令吉,也就是说把承担的成本节省了36%。

    柔新捷运可使两国更加紧密地互联互通。

    料带动新山产业经济发展

    实际上,这计划的落实不仅让这一桥之隔的马新两国日后能更加紧密地互联互通,甚至让每日往返柔新长堤的30万国人从中受惠,不必再陷入车龙中,同时也将有望带动更多的经济催化剂,特别是柔南区的商业活动、房地产、贸易、旅游等等。

    最令我期待的是,柔新捷运这项催化剂将能使新山房产更具活力。

    鉴于此,这计划的启动更是让整个柔佛州房产有如久旱逢甘雨,有望破除房产销售停滞不前的魔咒。

    另一边厢,中央政府在2020年财政预算案也即将拨出8500万令吉提升柔新长堤和马新第二通道通关系统,包括将摩托车柜台增加至50个。从这里可看出政府十分重视并有意解决上述2个通道阻塞的课题。

    新计划将催化柔南的商业活动、房地产、贸易及旅游等。

    大马房屋严重负担不起?

    一直以来,国人都在抱怨我国房屋是严重负担不起。根据国际公共政策顾问机构所开发的中位数倍数(median multiple)方法,一所房屋的价格不超过家庭年收入的3倍,才可被视为负担得起。

    同时,这个计算方法也获世界银行、联合国及哈佛大学推荐。

    鉴于此,大马的负担能力减弱,中位数倍数负担能力(房价与家庭年收入之比)从2012年的3.9倍上升至2016年的4.8倍。若按照国际标准,大马的房屋被认定是“严重负担不起”。

    令人震撼的是,大多数的大马人无法负担新推出平均售价为41万7262令吉的房屋,而全国可负担房屋的最高售价是28万2000令吉。

    个人觉得,政府当务之急应该重振国内经济发展。

    政府规定新推出的可负担屋价,必须依照地方实际情况及家庭收入而定。

    将推出可负担屋政策

    为了确保可负担房屋的价格合理,以让国人有能力购买的情况下,政府将推出“国家可负担房屋政策”,规定所有新推出的可负担房屋计划的屋价,必须依照地方实际情况及家庭收入而定。

    根据房屋及地方政府部长祖莱达说法,政府正以《2018-2025国家房屋政策》蓝本,拟定上述政策方案。同时,政府也将依据地方因素来监督及界定可负担房屋的价位不同,每个州属的房屋价位也不同。冀望政府能够在实施政策的方案之际,真正实现惠及B40的收入群体。

    总的来说,这计划的落实与带动柔佛州的房地产投资是相辅相成,甚至将来两地的穿梭自如将会是深圳福田站到香港西九龙站的最佳写照。

    扪心自问,即使柔佛房产的低迷很难在短时间内一蹴而就,但柔新捷运系统计划的落实,肯定让国内外的房产投资者们重见曙光及重拾投资信心!

  • 美国1%富豪财富暴增,将超越中产中上总和

    美国前1%富豪坐拥的财富几乎与中产阶级和中上层阶级的加总一样多。

    据彭博资讯报导,美国历史性的经济扩张使美国前1%的富豪口袋更深,其拥有的财富几乎与中产阶级和中上层阶级的加总一样多。

    根据联准会数据,在过去十年中,美国收入最高的前1%家庭在股市中获得丰厚回报,以至于他们现在控制着美国公营和私营企业一半以上的股权,如此最佳的投资组合让美国这群菁英吞噬的饼越来越大。

    收入前1%的富豪今年第二季拥有约35.4兆美元(约146.3兆令吉)资产,与收入前10%到50%的数千万人口持有的36.9兆美元(152.5兆令吉)资产相差无几,这些群体大部分为中上阶级或中产阶级。

    专家表示,受低利率影响,一般人无法从存款凭证和其他被动投资中获得很大回报,因此将资金投入股市,并支撑整个市场。

    这些投资让富豪有资格将资金投入不对外公开的避险基金和私募股权基金。许多这类基金需要500万美元(2066万令吉)的投资金额才有资格投资。“富人得到的越多,手上握有的机会也会越多”。

    也许不久之后,美国前1%富豪的总资产就会超过中产阶级和中上层阶级的总和。最富裕家庭财富今年第二季增长6500亿美元(约2.7兆令吉),而收入前10%到50%族群的财富增长2100亿美元(约8681亿令吉)。

    就目前来说,收入不到前1%,但在前10%的富裕阶层仍握有最大的财富分配,坐拥42.6兆美元(约176兆令吉)资产,这群人虽然有钱,但不算是超级富豪。

    而最下层的50%美国家庭,仅持有6.1%美国资产,负债却占了美国总负债的35.7%。

  • 《The Edge》房地产卓越奖十大最佳发展商,马来西亚马星集团连续9年获奖

    《The Edge》房地产卓越奖十大最佳发展商,马来西亚马星集团连续9年获奖

    马星集团总执行长拿督何汉生(右五)与团队共享获奖喜悦。

    马星集团(MAHSING,8583 ,主板产业股)连续9年获选《The Edge》大马房地产卓越奖的十大年度大马最佳发展商。

    奖项彰显马星集团持续提供具有创新理念优质项目的承诺,并为利益相关者提供强劲的财务业绩,进一步巩固其为大马房产开发商翘楚地位。

    马星集团创办人兼董事经理丹斯里梁海金表示:“衷心感激马星团队的付出与奉献,我们将继续为购屋者提供合理价格的优质房屋,重塑空间并改善周围社区的生活。”

    拥50发展项目

    马星集团目前在大吉隆坡、巴生谷、槟城、柔佛及沙巴等热点拥有约50个发展项目,涵括完善规划的城镇计划、综合发展、有地住宅、高层住宅、甲级办公楼、零售项目、SoHo及工业项目,彰显集团的多元性。

    迈入25周年,集团放眼成为大马首屈一指的可负担房屋开发商,并继续提供价格合理且优质的房产项目。近期推介今年首项产业计划M Oscar,而位于冼都的第二个发展项目M Arisa已开放预览。

    此外,马星集团位于蕉赖的M Vertica于10月份正式推介第四栋大楼,以满足购屋者的热烈需求。该集团也将陆续推出位于甲洞的M Luna、旺莎美拉华蒂花园(Wangsa Melawati)及位于柔佛Meridin East 城镇的Acacia等发展项目。

  • Most millionaires bet on living to 100 – survey

    While the average lifespan in China, the US and the majority of Eastern Europe is now in the late 70s, the rich across the globe are optimistic they will live for a century.

    According to UBS Wealth Management, 91 percent of the 5,000 investors it has surveyed are “making financial changes due to increased life expectancy.” Each of those polled has at least $1 million in investable assets, with healthcare stocks as their favored investment.

    Some 53 percent of the world’s wealthy expect to still be alive at 100 years of age.

    “The idea of living a century was once confined to science fiction,” said the UBS report, titled The Century Club. “But no longer. For the world’s wealthy, living a 100-year life is not an outcome they consider a mere possibility. It’s one they expect.”

    The outlooks of the high net-worth individuals varied based on where they were from. In Germany, which is acknowledged to provide residents with some of the world’s best healthcare, 76 percent of those surveyed said they expected to become centenarians. 

    In Asian countries, about half think they will reach that age. Only 30 percent were so confident in the US.

    Statistics from the US Social Security Administration showed that in 1930, the average life expectancy for American men was only 58. Fifty years before that, they could expect to live to around 35 years old. 

    While the millionaires are confident about their longevity, more than 70 percent are worried that their health will deteriorate over the next 10 years. Healthcare costs topped their list of concerns, with 52 percent of investors anxious about rising medical expenses. 

    The rich are more than willing to sacrifice money for extra longevity. Nine out of 10 wealthy people agreed that “health is more important than wealth.” 

    Asked by UBS how much of their fortune they’d be willing to give up “to guarantee an extra 10 years of healthy life,” those with $1-$2 million in net worth said could give up a third of their nest egg. Investors with more than $50 million were willing to part with almost half of their fortune for an additional decade of life.

    Overall, 77 percent agreed that working as long as possible was good for your health. The sentiment was particularly strong in Asia and Switzerland but far less so in the US and the UK.

  • Rich Chinese outnumber wealthy Americans for first time – Credit Suisse

    A new report by Credit Suisse shows that the number of rich Chinese people has surpassed the number of wealthy Americans for the first time as both countries continue to produce millionaires at fast rates.

    “This year, for the first time, China recorded more members of the global top 10 percent (100 million) than the United States (99 million),” the Swiss bank reported in its annual wealth survey released on Monday.

    “Despite the trade tension between the United States and China over the past 12 months, both countries have fared strongly in wealth creation, contributing $3.8 trillion and $1.9 trillion respectively,” said Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe, global head of economics and research at Credit Suisse CSGN.S.

    According to the study, the ranks of the world’s millionaires have risen by 1.1 million to an estimated 46.8 million, collectively owning $158.3 trillion in net assets (or 44 percent of the global total). The US added more than half of this increase, creating 675,000 new millionaires.

    A decline in average wealth in Australia resulted in 124,000 fewer millionaires, while Britain lost 27,000 and Turkey 24,000.

    The report estimates that 55,920 adults are worth at least $100 million and 4,830 have net assets above $500 million.

    Credit Suisse projects that global wealth will rise by 27 percent over the next five years to $459 trillion. The number of millionaires is expected to grow over this period to almost 63 million. According to the bank, global wealth increased by 2.6 percent over the past year.

    The bank noted that wealth inequality declined in most countries during the early years of this century. The share of the world’s bottom 90 percent accounts for 18 percent of global wealth, compared to 11 percent in 2000, it said.

    “While it is too early to say wealth inequality is now in a downward phase, the prevailing evidence suggests that 2016 may have been the peak for the near future.”

  • Billionaires’ wealth falls for first time since 2015, but don’t feel bad because it’s ‘likely to go up again’

    A new report by UBS and PwC has found that the world’s richest lost $388 billion last year, with their wealth dropping to $8.539 trillion. Geopolitical turmoil and volatile equity markets have been blamed for the loss.

    According to the report, the decline was particularly sharp in Greater China (the second-biggest home for billionaires after the United States) and the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.

    The net worth of China’s super-rich slid 12.8 percent in dollar terms due to tumbling stock markets and a weaker local currency. The slowing growth of the country’s economy has also hurt billionaires’ wealth.

    Despite that, China continues to produce a new billionaire every two or two-and-a-half days, according to UBS head of ultra-high net worth clients, Josef Stadler.

    Worldwide, the number of billionaires fell everywhere except in the Americas.

    “It is likely that billionaire wealth will go up again this year,” said Simon Smiles, UBS chief investment officer for ultra-wealthy clients. He added that it would likely be a more muted increase than the wider financial market rally might suggest.

  • 美国人卡债飙1兆美元政府出手救理财素养

    美国人最习以为常的消费付款方式—信用卡,所衍生出的卡债问题成了社会负担,很多人无法安心退休享受晚年。根据最新统计,美国人的信用卡总负债高达1兆美元。

    美国民族性崇尚勤奋自立,青少年阶段人人学习自食其力、打工赚钱,早期旅美作家陈之藩著名的散文《哲学家皇帝》当中就有描述「高傲的眉毛下滴下汗珠,来赚取自己的衣食」 。时至今日,在这消费文化为尊、高度资本主义化的美国社会里,年轻人赚来的钱要怎么用,却变成了一大问题。

    抢救学贷月光卡债族理财素养月唤大众意识

    学贷问题就是一例。身上的学贷从年轻一路背到老,这样的例子不在少数,根据政府机构2017年统计,在2015年60岁以上的美国人共积欠667亿美元学贷,平均每人2万3,500美元,这数字比十年前多出一倍。值得注意的是,其中许多人是在为自己的儿孙辈还债。此外,美国人最习以为常的消费付款方式—信用卡,所衍生出的卡债问题也成了社会负担,很多人无法安心退休享受晚年。凸显了在这个高度崇尚物质的社会,如何管好手上的金钱,也是一门学问。

    根据2017年一份调查,每五名美国劳工就有四人是靠月薪过活的月光族;四分之一受访者没有储蓄的习惯;高达75%的人身上背着某些债务,而大部分的人都认为负债情况会持续下去。根据最新统计,美国人的信用卡总负债高达1兆美元。鉴于以上数字隐含着随之而来的社会问题,来自政府、商业界及教育界的领导人物致力于提升美国人的理财素养(Financial Literacy)。

    这样的诉求在立法机构发酵。2003年,美国国会参众议院分别通过决议,要求政府宣布每年4月为「理财素养月」(Financial Literacy Month)。2005年众议院通过一项法案,用来支持「理财素养月」的目标与理想,呼吁联邦政府、各州政府、学校及非营利组织以适当的方式参与,用来凸显理财教育的重要,指导美国人建立并维持健康的理财习惯。

    理财素养,简单来说就是在金钱上做出明智决定的能力。素养这个词,指的不只是关于金钱的数据及资料上的理解,更是基于这样的知识,使人们能够正确使用金钱并导向健康的财务状况。

    基于上述统计,大多数的美国人不知道怎么管理手上的钱,然而情况有多严重呢?根据全美理财教育协会(NFEC)一项针对全美50州、1万7,000人进行的理财能力测验,30题测验中,题目包括建立预算、支付帐单、设定财务目标与其他个人理财的主题,结果只有近半数(48%)受测者合格,所有答题者的正确率63%。

    学校理财课程不足近半Z世代忧财务难题

    在学校体系内教授理财知识,成了美国政府与民间推动的方向。希望借着理财课程的普及化,在学生成人以前传授理财素养,能让学生得到需要的知识,以在做出财务决定时,感到更有信心。不过这种课程仍未完全普遍,而理财专家说这是一大错误。

    「我总是把理财教育跟学开车相提并论。」服务于一家消费者信用报告机构的专家乌泽默(John Ulzheimer)如此比喻:「任何心智正常的人都不会允许他们的孩子,在还没学会开车就跳上车子、握方向盘。可是我们却让这些年轻人,在没有受过正规训练之下,就开始使用信用卡与金融帐户。」

    根据一项调查,目前20多岁的Z世代美国年轻人,近半数认为就算受过高中教育,仍然对于管理财务上有许多难题。另有逾半受访者担心,金钱问题会成为他们追求理想人生的阻碍。四分之三的年轻人认为,个人理财课程应该列入高中必修课。

    理财教育向下扎根建立全国标准分龄学习

    非营利组织「经济教育委员会」(Council for Economic Education)建议,针对理财素养应立下全国标准,用来建立从幼儿园到高中生的教学架构,包括管理收入、购买商品与服务、使用信用卡、储蓄与投资、保险等。然而,全美目前仅有19个州采用了这一套标准。

    隶属于美国财政部的理财素养暨教育委员会(FLEC)近期建议,大专院校将理财课程列为必修。在大多数学校未将理财课程列为重点之下,师资来源可以从受过金融训练的学生、校外专家等方向寻找。包括哈佛大学在内的多家高等教育学府,已经开设理财课程。

    理财教育向下扎根,分龄学习是一重要原则,从幼儿园一路到高中,不同阶段的学生将学到循序渐进的理财工具箱,为将来进入社会做好准备。例如,对小学四年级学生要教的是「为什么要储蓄」;对中学八年级学生则是教「如何在一笔重大消费之前收集必要资讯」:让高中12年级学生学习「教育、技能与经验会如何影响每个人的职业生涯」。

  • 密码保护:从Uber条款看共享经济学者吁建产业策略观

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  • 猪价拉动中国10月CPI跃升近八年高位 结构性通胀无碍货币政策

    猪肉价格大幅攀升令中国10月CPI同比涨幅大踏步走高,并超预期创下近八年新高,而PPI则在高基数和需求承压之下,跌幅进一步加深。分析师们认为,“剪刀差”扩大的局面仍将持续一段时间,短期内快速遏制猪肉上涨的难度较大,CPI将继续保持高位并有突破4%的可能。

    他们认为,通胀的上行源于猪肉价格单一商品价格的上涨,因此货币政策不会过多受到CPI上涨的影响,无需过度担忧,加之近期中国央行调降MLF利率,显示政策依然以经济走势为主,货币政策仍将保持当下的主基调。

    “CPI的快速上涨主要还是受猪肉价格带动,现在来看主要还是结构性问题,不存在全面通胀的风险。”交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智称,PPI有延续下降的趋势,降幅会进一步扩大,表明经济需求还是比较偏弱的,阶段性工业通缩的压力存在。

    他并称,宏观政策上还是要加大逆周期调节,但也要警惕部分领域价格的快速上涨,特别要注意随着猪肉价格上涨带来其他替代品价格的响应上涨。可能年底到明年一季度CPI还会在3%甚至到4%,因此要防止结构性价格上涨,除了向市场加大中央储备肉的投放,还要加强其他产品的进口和生产,稳定市场。

    国家统计局周六公布,10月居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%,远高于路透调查预估中值的3.3%,为2012年1月以来最高,当时为4.5%;其中,猪肉价格上涨101.3%,影响CPI上涨约2.43个百分点。10月工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比下降1.6%,为2016年7月以来最低,略低于路透调查预估中值-1.5%。

    10月CPI环比上涨0.9%,路透调查预估中值为升0.7%;PPI环比上涨0.1%;当月CPI中的食品价格同比上涨15.5%,非食品价格同比上涨0.9%。

    长江证券宏观分析师赵伟指出,猪价上涨,除带动食品涨价外,还可能通过推升生活成本,加大生产和服务价格上涨压力,导致通胀形势的不确定性上升。成本推升的通胀中枢抬升后较难回落,中性情景下,CPI在未来一个季度或持续抬升,春节后CPI或明显回落,但仍在3%以上,预计高位停留两三个季度左右。

    “通胀形势的不确定性,尤其是猪价上涨带动的“外溢效应”,仍会影响市场预期。”赵伟称,短期来看,债市或以震荡调整为主,主要影响因素包括通胀、经济基本面、年底前后资金面等;中期来看,宏观形势,及“资产荒”背景下的再配置压力、外资流入等因素,依然对债市形成有力支撑。

    据国家统计局城市司高级统计师沈赟分析,10月猪肉价格同比上涨101.3%,占CPI同比总涨幅的近三分之二;牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉、鸭肉和鸡蛋价格涨幅在12.3%-21.4%之间。如扣除猪肉价格上涨因素,CPI环比上涨约0.1%,同比上涨约1.3%,总体稳定。

    从环比看,猪肉价格上涨20.1%,涨幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点,影响CPI上涨约0.79个百分点,占CPI环比总涨幅的近九成。受猪肉价格上涨拉动与消费替代需求影响,牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉和鸭肉价格均有所上涨,涨幅在1.0%-3.1%之间。

    中国总理李克强日前主持召开国务院常务会议,要求巩固农业基础,保障重要农产品供给并稳定价格;要深入清理各地不合理禁养规定,利用北方玉米丰收条件,更好保障南方养猪大省饲料供应,促进禽肉、牛羊肉等生产,确保市场供应,遏制部分产品价格过快上涨。

    猪价保持高位,警惕其他替代品随之上涨

    由于猪肉供给的大幅收缩令猪价一直居高不下,分析师们普遍认为短期遏制猪价下降的可能性不大,要警惕因猪肉价格持续高位带来其他替代品的随之上涨,要防止结构性扩散。

    “我们认为猪肉供给缺口短期仍不易弥补,叠加年底为春节备货等因素,猪价年内仍有上涨可能,价格涨势趋缓需等待补栏逐渐完成。”华泰证券宏观团队李超称,本轮猪周期受非洲猪瘟疫情影响较大,叠加了养殖行业环保标准严格化等因素,导致存栏持续较低、补栏不易。

    他并指出,猪肉价格持续上涨将一定程度上抑制猪肉消费量,使其他肉禽蛋类对猪肉产生一定的替代效应,这可能令涨价在各食品类别间出现一定的结构性扩散。

    李超并认为,在短期内经济类滞胀压力加大的情况下,稳增长可能是国家首要确保的经济工作目标,可能适度提高通货膨胀的容忍度;2020年政府工作报告存在较大概率将CPI目标上调至3.5%左右,同时应继续发力保障重要农产品合理充裕供给。

    西南证券宏观分析师杨业伟、张伟举例称,由于猪肉供给大幅收缩,生猪价格在10月大幅大涨,10月猪价环比大涨20.1%,而同比增速较上月提升32.0个百分点至101.3%,猪价同比增速提升推升10月CPI同比增速0.79个百分点左右。

    中国国家发展改革委副主任兼国家统计局局长宁吉喆发表文章称,下阶段国内外环境复杂严峻,实现全年经济社会发展预期目标仍面临不少挑战,但中国经济发展长期向好的基本面没有改变,将加强逆周期调节,随着政策发力显效,中国经济将展现出韧性。

  • 分析师观点:中国10月CPI超预期涨至近八年高位年内料仍有上行压力

    中国国家统计局周六公布,10月居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%,远高于路透调查预估中值的3.3%,为2012年1月以来最高,当时为4.5%;10月工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比下降1.6%,为2016年7月以来最低,略低于路透调查预估中值-1.5%。

    10月CPI环比上涨0.9%,路透调查预估中值为升0.7%;PPI环比上涨0.1%;当月CPI中的食品价格同比上涨15.5%,非食品价格同比上涨0.9%。猪肉价格上涨101.3%,影响CPI上涨约2.43个百分点。

    10月详细数据:

    –CPI同比上涨3.8%(路透调查中值为上涨3.3%)

    –PPI同比下降1.6%(路透调查中值为下降1.5%)

    –CPI环比上涨0.9%(路透调查中值为上涨0.7%),PPI环比上涨0.1%

    –CPI中食品价格同比上涨15.5%,非食品价格同比上涨0.9%

    以下为分析师评论摘要:

    –交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员 刘学智:

    CPI主要还是因为猪肉价格带动,现在来看主要还是结构性问题,不存在全面通胀的风险;PPI则有延续下降的趋势,降幅会进一步扩大,主要表明经济需求还是比较偏弱的,阶段性工业通缩的压力存在。

    宏观政策上还是要加大逆周期调节,但也要警惕部分领域价格的快速上涨,特别要注意随着猪肉价格上涨带来其他替代品价格的响应上涨。现在来说快速遏制猪肉上涨的难度还是比较大,可能年底到明年一季度的话CPI还会在3%甚至到4%,所以要防止结构性价格上涨,除了向市场加大中央储备肉的投放,还要加强其他产品的进口和生产,稳定市场。

    货币政策不会过多受到CPI上涨的影响,现在的重点不在于CPI主要还是取决于经济运行的情况,但不是完全忽略CPI,要在坚持稳健货币政策的同时警惕货币流动性不要流动到食品价格领域。

    –华泰证券宏观团队 李超:

    至少在2020年二季度之前,猪肉CPI同比上涨压力可能持续较大,对期间CPI持续形成较强上行压力;在短期内经济类滞胀压力加大的情况下,稳增长可能是国家首要确保的经济工作目标,可能适度提高通货膨胀的容忍度;2020年政府工作报告存在较大概率将CPI目标值上调至3.5%左右,同时应继续发力保障重要农产品合理充裕供给。

    本轮猪周期受非洲猪瘟疫情影响较大,叠加了养殖行业环保标准严格化等因素,导致存栏持续较低、补栏不易,我们认为猪肉供给缺口短期仍不易弥补,叠加年底为春节备货等因素,猪价年内仍有上涨可能,价格涨势趋缓需等待补栏逐渐完成。猪肉价格持续上涨将一定程度上抑制猪肉消费量,使其他肉禽蛋类对猪肉产生一定的替代效应,这可能令涨价在各食品类别间出现一定的结构性扩散。

    目前原油的供需基本面大体均衡;供给侧政策暂未对各类大宗商品价格体现明显正面逻辑,未来一至两个季度,PPI环比重点关注基建等政策刺激投放节奏。中性预计今年PPI中枢在-0.5%~0之间,2020年PPI翘尾因素可能较今年上行,同时经济下行压力可能倒逼基建等需求侧政策刺激从明年初开始就较早投放。今年四季度可能是PPI的阶段性低点,明年一季度PPI有望由负转正。

    各国中央银行都认为通胀是一种货币现象,我们认为中国的流动性存量过剩在过去主要体现在地产价格上涨,而目前政策继续坚持“房住不炒”,当前较为宽裕的流动性存量也可能成为CPI持续上行的推动因素。在猪价居高不下、且可能环比继续上涨的背景下,我们应警惕在CPI同比突破+3%以后,通胀预期自我实现;若国际油价再出现上涨,可能形成猪油共振的通胀风险情形。风险情形下,我们预计2020年CPI高点可能达到+5.5%至+6%。

    –西南证券宏观分析师 杨业伟、张伟:

    通胀上行源于猪价单一商品价格上涨,而非价格全面上涨,其它价格延续弱势。由于猪肉供给大幅收缩,生猪价格在10月大幅大涨,即使食品内部,除其它肉类价格小幅上涨之外,蔬菜、水果等价格环比都有所下跌。

    高基数推动PPI同比跌幅加深,但未来几个月工业品同比将快速改善。随着需求企稳,环比将继续回升,同时叠加基数效应减弱,PPI同比将在未来几个月快速改善。预计明年初左右,PPI同比将转正。

    央行无需对单一商品驱动的价格上涨作反应,一方面是因为货币收紧无法抑制猪价上涨,另一方面,货币收紧对货币政策负面效应更强。无需过度担忧货币政策,央行近期调降MLF利率,显示政策依然以经济为主,因而货币政策将继续保持总体宽松。虽然猪肉价格继续大幅推升通胀,但到目前为止,依然是单一商品价格上涨;同时居民收入未提升、劳动力转移未改善情况下,其它商品价格难以上涨。

    –长江证券宏观分析师 赵伟:

    猪价上涨,除带动食品涨价外,还可能通过推升生活成本,加大生产和服务价格上涨压力,导致通胀形势的不确定性上升。而且,成本推升的通胀中枢抬升后较难回落,使得通胀在高位停留时间可能较长。中性情景下,CPI在未来一个季度或持续抬升,春节高点可能超5%;春节后CPI或明显回落,但仍在3%以上,预计高位停留二、三个季度左右。

    PPI同比降幅扩大,主要受石油链和黑色冶炼拖累。未来一段时间,基数因素或对PPI同比读数形成一定支持;但总需求承压下,PPI通缩或延续。伴随国内融资收紧对地产拖累等影响逐步显现,叠加全球景气加速回落,PPI或继续处于负增长区间,实际利率中枢或继续保持高位,对经济行为产生一定压制。

    通胀形势的不确定性,尤其是猪价上涨带动的“外溢效应”,仍会影响市场预期。短期来看,债市或以震荡调整为主,主要影响因素包括通胀、经济基本面、年底前后资金面等。中期来看,宏观形势,及“资产荒”背景下的再配置压力、外资流入等因素,依然对债市形成有力支撑。

  • 外语能力牛上天 简历上夸张谎言小心被拆穿

    有件事一下子变得非常清楚:很明显,原来我身边有这么多通晓多国语言的人。

    突然间,我认识的每个人都开始声称自己会说多种语言——尽管我以前从未听这些人说过外语,哪怕是一个词。(我最喜欢的是那些称自己会说美国英语和英国英语两种语言的人。)

    这一趋势并非仅限于脸书的个人资料。这种个人资料的修饰已渗透到工作场所,出现在人们求职时。在领英网(LinkedIn)上和求职申请中,很多人都不假思索写下了被自己极度夸大的外语能力。

    但这会适得其反吗?

    说到语言能力撒谎很容易

    当然,只要现代劳动力市场存在,简历中几乎就一直充斥着善意的小谎言,这并不新鲜。在凯业必达(CareerBuilder)招聘网2015年对美国2000名全职招聘经理进行的一项调查中,56%的被调查者说他们发现应聘者在撒谎,比如夸大过去的职位和职责,甚至列出一所虚构的大学。此外,他们特别指出,63%的求职者在简历中夸大了某项技能。

    Hloom是一家提供求职信和简历模板的公司,该公司对2000名招聘经理进行了另一项调查。调查发现,应聘者简历上的第二大谎言是外语流利度,排第一的是毕业的大学,第三是学术专业。

    那么,语言技能有什么特别,让人们过度夸大其价值呢?

    宾夕法尼亚大学(University of Pennsylvania)沃顿商学院(Wharton)管理学教授施魏策尔(Maurice Schweitzer)将其归结为一种他称之为“弹性判断”(elastic justification)的现象。他说:“人们夸大的一般都是很难划清明确界限的事——语言就是一个很好的例子。”

    换句话说,如果你自称是他家禄语(Tagalog)教师,这件事的真相就不像你的大学学位那么清清楚楚,比较容易蒙骗别人。(不过施魏策尔说,很多人也在自己简历上捏造大学学位这些东西。)

    当然,对于翻译工作或其他有特殊双语要求的职位,可能会有一些测试,看看你声称的语言技能是否合格。

    但如果你申请的是一份平面设计工作,并且想额外说明你会说一些西班牙语(意思是:在大学里短期学习过这个科目,之后没说过这种语言),那又有什么大不了的?

    ‘你还撒了什么谎?’

    人们在简历上撒谎的原因和他们在脸书这样的社交平台对自己的语言技能撒谎是一样的。他们想给人留下深刻印象。问题是,如果你在填写申请的资历时欺骗他人——不管你认为有多么微不足道——都会给潜在雇主留下非常糟糕的、难以消除的印象。

    施魏策尔说,有些人甚至会在简历的兴趣部分撒谎,如果他们在填写简历时选择填写兴趣爱好,他们甚至可能会夸大自己的爱好或专业才能,以表现自己,想给他人留下多才多艺或令人难忘的印象。

    说你喜欢《星际迷航》(Star Trek)或者电影,或者说你参加过马拉松比赛,可能会引发雇主跟进提问,或者面试官尝试无恶意的闲聊——但要是发现你对于那些事情的了解并不像你所说的那么多,招聘经理就可能会想除了这之外,你还撒了什么谎。他们会想:眼前的这个人是他们能够信任,想带到工作团队的人吗?

    施魏策尔说:“语言的有趣之处在于界限非常模糊。如果我能在餐厅用意大利语点餐,在我自己看来,我可以自认为已精通意大利语——何为精通难以界定,正是这种模糊不清才显得如此有趣。”

    这种自欺欺人乍一看似乎对人无害,但一旦说谎者开始申请更重要或公务职位,这种自欺欺人就会反弹。

    施魏策尔指出,最近有一则新闻报道称,美国佛罗里达州(Florida)众议院的一名候选人谎称自己上了某所大学——这显然是捏造的,结果导致她最后退出竞选。她声称自己毕业于该校并获得学位,但校方称并无其事。但她确实参加了毕业典礼,这就是为什么有一张她戴着帽子,身穿长袍的照片。

    这就是现实生活中的弹性判断。如果你和某方面成就拉上关系——比如把意大利语写进简历,能在罗马点意式烤面包——你可能会开始告诉别人,并且在某种程度上相信,你真的能说一口流利的意大利语来自我吹嘘。

    但这种“判断错误”,正如那位佛罗里达候选人自称遭到惨败那样,最终可能会对你造成巨大的伤害。

    在简历中描述语言能力的最好方法

    所有这些并不是为了吓退你,让你不敢在简历或社交媒体上展示你有某种语言技能。

    但如果你在求职申请中声称自己会说阿拉伯语,哪怕只是一个小小的注解,也要做好准备,有可能面试官会用阿拉伯语跟你说话。试想最糟糕的情况是一个很好的自我测试方式,可以用来决定自己的简历中应该(或不应该)写进哪些内容。

    蒙提(Meg Montee)是位于华盛顿的应用语言学中心(Center for Applied Linguistics)的高级助理研究员。她表示像“可会话”或“流利”这样的通用描述并不真正有帮助,因为国际上语言能力水平容易衡量的标准体系并不总是被广泛使用或被所有人理解。当然,现在有很多标准化的考试(尤其是针对母语非英语的学习者),但她也说这些考试费用昂贵,而且要花很多时间来准备。

    相反,她建议对语言能力的描述尽可能具体明确。蒙提说:“描述要明确,比如‘我可以向人指路解释方向’,在公共交通领域工作的人需要能够清楚地用这种语言发表声明,并让公众能够理解。在办公室工作中,你要能够写出能被一般大众理解的备忘录。”

    详细描述听起来工作量太大?可能的情况是,如果你无法提供关于你语言能力的具体说明,你或许一开始就不应该把语言能力写入职位申请中。不值得冒这个险。

    蒙提说:“人们可能不是故意撒谎,但他们已经构建了一个身份,这就是他们对自己的看法。”

    这是一条很重要的求职经验法则:永远不值得你在简历上撒谎。

    施魏策尔说,如果你对是否把某些东西写进简历而举棋不定,那就别费心加进去了。找工作时,很容易陷入一种一根筋的心态——首要目标是找工作,第二目标才可能是诚实——但当你有怀疑的时候,应跟着直觉走。

    他说:“我们总是试图给别人留下好印象——我认为人们如果给自己加上一些光环,确实能获得某些帮助。人们可以很容易地为自己的行为辩护。”

  • Robert Downey Jr. owns a Bentley, so does Jay-Z: as the luxury car maker turns 100, what can the next generation Bentley buyers expect?

    Why millennials aren’t really anti-car, and why most rich people ‘don’t buy luxury cars’ – according to Bentley CEO Adrian Hallmark, who sees hybrid and electric engines as a way to sell even more motors, not fewer

    With a long and storied past, British car marque Bentley may be blowing out 100 birthday candles this year, but it’s leader is looking confidently towards the next 100 years. It’s a future where the internal combustion engine is facing obsolescence in favour of electric model. Where governmental regulations are forcing car manufacturers to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions, as climate change is increasingly a hot-button political issue. And where ride-sharing services like Uber or Lyft mean car ownership is becoming optional.

    I don’t believe millennials are anti-car. If you can’t afford something, you tend to say you don’t want it. Actually, it’s because you can’t afford itAdrian Hallmark, chairman and CEO, Bentley

    Looking to future generations of luxury car buyers, some may believe that millennials don’t care about automobiles, but Bentley chairman and CEO Adrian Hallmark defiantly refutes the claim. “I don’t believe they’re anti-car. If you can’t afford something, you tend to say you don’t want it. Actually, it’s because you can’t afford it,” he says.

    “My point is that we change our tastes according to our means. I don’t believe this rubbish about everybody wants to share and not own. Some do, and some do in certain product categories, but I don’t believe that everybody will for every category. You like to succeed, you like to achieve, you like to own something.”

    Investment in new technology and the development of electric vehicles has become a matter of survival in light of the growing masses of environmentally-conscious car buyers and policymakers. Therefore, Bentley has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into electrification. In 2019, it launched the all-electric and autonomous EXP 100 GT concept car that offers its vision of what luxury mobility will look like in 2035; and the Bentayga Hybrid SUV, the most efficient Bentley ever – with combined CO2 emissions of 79g/km, the brand’s inaugural plug-in hybrid car is the first step towards electrifying every one of its models by 2023.

    By 2025, it has pledged to roll out its first fully electric vehicle. While autonomous cars are also gaining in popularity, Bentley’s customers apparently prefer to drive their automobiles themselves.

    “Why would I spend £200,000 (US$257,000), £300,000 (US$385,000) or £400,000 (US$514,000) on a car that I’m not going to drive?” Hallmark asks. “The only reason I would spend that much on a car is because it’s the best driving machine for the purpose. We’re more on the experiential side than taking the steering wheel out of the car.”

    Never be mistaken that wealthy people don’t care, because they’re amongst the most enlightened. But 99.3 per cent of high net-worth individuals don’t buy luxury cars. Why? It’s partly because they don’t represent their valuesAdrian Hallmark, chairman and CEO, Bentley

    The technologies Bentley favours instead concern making things easier for the driver. These include low-speed assistance when driving in heavy city traffic, cruise control, connectivity for working when chauffeured via a system called SkyBridge – effectively six SIM cards interacting digitally to provide six times the mobile phone signal – and Bentley My World, a Facebook-like social network exclusively for Bentley owners.

    Intent on reducing its environmental impact, Bentley’s headquarters in Crewe became the UK’s first carbon-neutral luxury automotive factory. It installed the UK’s largest solar car port comprising 10,000 solar panels – adding to the 20,815 rooftop panels already fitted – and now 100 per cent of electricity used to manufacture every Bentley is generated from solar energy or purchased as certified green electricity, with emissions that can’t be eliminated offset with carbon credits. It has been the fruit of close to two decades of work to make the Crewe site as energy and carbon-efficient as possible, as Bentley intends to become the world’s most sustainable luxury automotive manufacturer.

    Are electrification and sustainability a way to bring young customers to the brand? “Definitely,” says Hallmark. “There aren’t two worlds – there are just different speeds of acceptance. Ten years ago, I didn’t even know what a CO2 footprint was, so as soon as we get more information, we change. Tobacco advertising on race cars was acceptable; it’s not now. We move on.”

    However, it’s not just about attracting new clients, but also existing ones who won’t keep the same mindset that they have today. “They too will change,” he states. “[Our clients] are super wealthy, with five or six cars in the same price range, and will change one or two per year. But it’s because they are huge in industry, business, the arts or something else, so they’re at the leading edge of thinking, too.

    “Never be mistaken that wealthy people don’t care, because they’re amongst the most enlightened. But 99.3 per cent of high-net-worth individuals don’t buy luxury cars. Why? It’s partly because they don’t represent their values. They don’t want to be seen in a big car that’s environmentally questionable, so hybridisation and then electrification will open up the market for more value sets and more customer types.”

    Recently, Bentley announced a new continuation series of Sir Tim Birkin’s iconic 1929 4.5-litre Team Blower racing car, which its Mulliner bespoke and coachwork division will reverse engineer to produce 12 new cars identical to the original. In his aim to produce historically-relevant replicas, Hallmark also hopes to recreate the EXP1, Bentley’s very first car made in 1919, and build a business carrying out classic restorations for customers.

    “I think the heritage and the future fit perfectly together,” he points out. “There’s a clear link between them. I’ve seen a Bentayga with a vintage Bentley on a car trailer on the back. That is the dream team. If we can get every customer to buy a new one and a classic one, I’d be very happy.”

    And who knows, one day we just might see Bentley converting its existing historic cars into electric vehicles. It’s early days yet, but Hallmark acknowledges this is one area the brand is looking into. A “classic electric”, anyone?