分类: 未分类

  • 韩企划财政部在8个月后删除经济状况诊断书中的“不景气”表述

    在政府每月公布的经济状况诊断中,时隔8个月删除了“不景气(不振)”一词。理由是,之前“不景气”的评价只局限于出口和投资领域,但稍有不慎就会引起整个经济萎靡不振的误会。有人指出,是不是意识到了青瓦台的政策性和宣传鼓励。

    企划财政部在15日出版的《最近经济动向》(绿皮书)11月号中诊断称,第三季度(7~9月)“韩国经济虽然维持生产和消费增加趋势,但出口和建设投资持续减少,制约了经济增长”。这与一个月前“出口及投资持续不景气”的评价相似,但删除了“不景气”一词。今年4月至10月,绿皮书上出现“不景气”一词的时间长达7个月,是2005年首次发行绿皮书以来最长的一次。

    企划财政部经济分析课长洪敏锡(音)解释称,“并不是说经济已经触底,也不是说对这段时间的经济的认识发生了变化,而是可能会把对出口和投资方面的特定表述误解为对整体经济萎靡不振,所以换掉了(不景气表述)。”该绿皮书判断认为,在全球贸易和制造业景气萎缩等世界经济同时放缓的情况下,日本出口限制、美中贸易纷争、全球半导体业恢复时期等不确定性仍然存在。

    绿皮书显示,9月份工矿业生产和服务业产值分别增长0.4%和1.0%,增势继续。就业方面,10月份就业者增加了41.9万名等,呈现出恢复趋势。

    相反,出口(10月为准)受全球贸易萎缩、半导体业不景气的影响,与去年同期相比减少了14.7%、是3年零9个月以来的最大降幅。出口减少势头已持续11个月。建设投资(9月)也比去年减少了7.4%,设备投资虽然也减少了减少幅度(-1.6%),但仍然是负增长。

    对经济状况的认识没有太大变化,但政府没有使用“不景气”一词,对此部分人观测说,文在寅总统前一天向经济副总理兼企划财政部部长洪南基要求“持续表现出对韩国经济的领导能力”,这产生了一定的影响。企划财政部为将此次绿皮书印刷本综合评价中的“半导体业况不佳”表述紧急改为“半导体单价下降”,逐个贴上胶带进行修改,这也为这种观测提供了有力的依据。从结果来看,此次绿皮书中除了国际谷物价格和美国等其他国家的经济状况外,并没有出现“不景气”一词。企划财政部相关人士说:“改变表述是几天前决定的,与青瓦台方面无关。”

  • 下班后打工”,每周52小时工作试行制度后“双栖型人才”剧增

    年薪2200万韩元的郑某(35岁)从9月开始在便利店打工。这是因为,随着公司试行从明年开始对不足300人的企业实施的每周52小时工作制,加班费大幅减少。郑某有两个女儿,周末在便利店工作7个小时、周三•周四晚上8点开始工作4个小时,月收入可达70多万韩元。郑某说:“在公司赚的钱减少了,因此要想养家糊口,必须干兼职工作。”

    像郑某一样,从2015年8月开始到今年8月拥有2个以上工作岗位的健康保险单位加入者增加了10万名。据国会保健福祉委员会所属的正未来党议员崔道子17日在国民健康保险公团获得的《健康保险单位加入者重复加入者现状》显示,健康保险单位加入者中重复加入者从2015年8月的15.3501万名增加到了2019年的25.5355万名。

    特别是最低工资急剧上涨的2017年以后,增长幅度更大。每年8月为基准,2017年比2016年增加了1.8569万名(增加率11.0%),去年(2018年)增加了2.1376名万(11.2%),而今年更是足足增加了4.3613万名(20.6%)。也就是说,通过所谓的“做两份工作”“身兼数职”,在多个单位同时缴纳健康保险费的人越来越多。

    大邱一家传单配送企业的合同工禹某(28岁)原本是做全职的,但从去年开始改为平时下午3点到7点工作的兼职。因此,他平日上午能在便利干兼职。禹先生说:“当时我正急着做合同工,老板让我每天只工作4个小时,要想维持生计,我只能做兼职了。”

    对像禹先生这样在一个单位工作1个月以上,每月工作60小时以上的职工,无论是合同工还是正式工,业主都要参加包括医保在内的四大保险。专家认为,重复加入者大部分是在300人以下的中小企业工作或被个体户雇用的。也就是说,很多职业从事者直接受到最低工资或每周52小时工作制的影响。大企业一般禁止通过劳动合同或社规为营利活动兼职。

    专家分析说,这是最低工资的急剧上涨和每周52小时工作制以及经济不景气综合造成的现象。淑明女子大学经济系名誉教授申世敦(音)解释说:“最低工资上涨,再加上经济也不景气,从全时制改为钟点制,工作时间减少,所以剩下的时间主要用其他收入活动来填补。特别是,随着30、40多岁人群主要工作的制造业工作岗位减少,做两份工作的人正在增加。”

    有人预测,随着每周工作时间减少,今后同时在多个公司上班将成为趋势。建国大学经济学教授金元植(音)预测称:“做两份工作的现象在每周工作52小时时是预料之中的事情。随着工作时间的确定和收入的减少,今后大公司也无法阻止工人的双份工活动。”

    崔议员表示:“只有拥有多个工作岗位,生活才有可能实现,这意味着百姓的生活变得更加艰难。政府应该更加关注做两份工作、身兼多职等问题,并制定相关政策。”

  • 现代汽车在美国LA首次启动车辆共享服务

    现代汽车集团将在美国开展未来Mobility(移动出行)服务事业。

    现代汽车14日(当地时间)在由美国洛杉矶(LA)市主办的移动出行博览会“LA Co-Motion”上与LA市签订了合作Mobility事业的谅解备忘录。因此,现代汽车决定设立美国Mobility服务法人“Motion Lab”。

    首先,Motion Lab从本月开始将以洛杉矶市中心主要地铁站(联合车站、韦斯特莱克站、普辛站、7号街•地铁中心站)附近的4处换乘停车场为据点,开展汽车共享(Car Sharing)服务。今后最多将投入300辆车用于洛杉矶地区的汽车共享。计划与洛杉矶市所属机关洛杉矶地铁、洛杉矶交通局合作进行运营。

    洛杉矶是世界最大的尖端交通城市,因此被认为是开展Mobility事业的最佳城市。1名洛杉矶市民每年用于公共交通的费用约为9741美元(约1138万韩元),与纽约(7907美元)和英国伦敦(5445美元)相比,要高出很多。LA地区的电动汽车注册数量也达到了美国全体的20%。与大众交通相关的创业企业数也是美国纽约的两倍。

    现代汽车集团相关人士表示:“就未来移动出行的哲学、营造可持续城市环境的方向性问题,我们与洛杉矶市达成了共识。”

    现代汽车集团就Mobility事业正在增加对跨国企业的投资。今年3月,现代汽车决定与印度最大的车辆呼叫服务企业奥拉(Ola)一起在当地的Mobility市场进行合作。公司还投资东南亚最大的车辆呼叫企业Grap,正在进行电动汽车基础服务实证事业。另外,现代汽车集团最近还与被称为俄罗斯硅谷的尖端技术集群—斯科尔科沃创新中心(Skolkovo Innovation Center)一起,启动了车辆订阅服务“现代Mobility”。

  • 韩日IT巨头李海珍和孙正义选择携手的原因

    11月18日,NAVER日本子公司LINE与软银日本门户网站雅虎日本正式宣布将联手经营。双方计划共同投资建立合资公司并各持股50%进行联合经营。日本互联网市场的超级巨头雅虎日本与手机端巨头LINE的合并有望从根本上颠覆行业秩序。

    NAVER的创始人兼全球首席投资官(GIO)李海珍(52岁)和软银总裁孙正义(62岁)打算通过两家公司合并经营,勾勒一幅怎样的蓝图呢?

    冲破地区局限,打造全球平台

    “我们希望能够成为一家成功对抗帝国主义并存活下来的公司”。这是今年6月出席韩国社会学会和经商学会共同举办的研讨会时李海珍在会上被问到NAVER希望成为一家什么样的公司时他所作出的回答。他强调,在与谷歌、亚马逊、腾讯、阿里巴巴等中美两国互联网平台巨头对抗的过程中,“不能单打独斗,需要结交联盟”。

    分析认为,这次与“雅虎日本”合作,便是出自“结交联盟”的需求。“LINE”在日本拥有8200万用户,而“雅虎日本”则是日本拥有5000万名用户的第一大门户网站。“LINE”在聊天软件、内容领域占据着优势地位,“雅虎日本”则在电商领域表现强势。汉阳大学经营系教授申敏秀(音)表示,“两家公司合并经营,可以像全球平台巨头一样,拥有内容、平台、电商业务的良性循环结构”。

    门户网站与聊天应用的结合

    NAVER早在2001年4月就开通“NAVER日本”网站,一直积极寻求进入日本市场。但当时雅虎在日本门户网站市场的份额高达80%以上,留下的市场空间极为狭小。最终,NAVER在手机端打开了成功的大门。2011年东日本大地震之后,为取代电话通信,人们对手机通信功能的需求大幅上涨,NAVER在此时推出的“LINE”迅速成为在日本份额第一的移动通讯应用。

    专家们普遍认为,“LINE”和“雅虎日本”的合作相当于互联网与手机端的结合。如同2014年Daum与Kakao合作时一样,两家公司为对抗平台巨头、增强自主力量,合并是必然的选择。拥有4000多万用户的Kakao Talk通过与拥有保险、旅游等互联网业务的Daum合并,发展出了多样化收益模式。

    因此,分析认为,日本LINE与雅虎日本的合并也有望成为强化市场掌控力的一剂良药。

    打造人工智能带的核心布局

    孙总裁今年7月访韩时曾分别与韩国三星电子副董事长李在镕等三名大企业领袖及李海珍GIO、NCSOFT总裁金泽辰等五位企业总裁会面。业界认为,孙总裁在与这些企业家对话时,人工智能是双方讨论的主要话题,可能在此过程中,他与李海珍产生了较大的共鸣。

    NAVER很早之前便投身人工智能的研究,并计划以包括韩国、日本、法国和越南等在内的东南亚地区为中心,构建“全球人工智能研究带”。这次合作有望使公司获得优质大数据,从而与美国的GAFA(谷歌、苹果、FACEBOOK、亚马逊)和中国的BATH(百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯、华为)抗衡。Kiwoom证券公司的金学俊(音)研究员表示,“LINE和雅虎日本合并后,有望获得日本最高质量的数据(作为人工智能研究的基础)”。

  • 今年韩国紫菜出口刷新纪录

    据韩国海洋水产开发院水产业管理中心17日消息,今年1-10月,韩国紫菜出口量同比增加18.6%,达62.47亿张,刷新纪录。

    今年前十个月的出口量较去年全年多出4.7%。今年每月的出口量均多于往年同月的均值。与去年相比,除3月和6月外,今年其他月份的出口量均同比增加。

    从出口金额来看,今年截至10月,出口额达4.95亿美元,同比增加6.4%。去年全年的出口额为5.2868亿美元,今年全年的出口额有望轻松超过去年的纪录。

    管理中心方面分析认为,中国和日本今年的紫菜产量不如预期,因此对韩产紫菜的需求增加,且最近几年韩国的紫菜产量大增,能顺利满足需求。

    具体来看,今年对华出口量达13.49亿张,出口占比达到21.6%,中国成为韩国紫菜第一大出口市场。去年,来自中国的需求排名第四,今年则较去年翻一番多。日本(13.24亿张)、泰国(11.14亿张)、美国(9.07亿张)分列其后。

    管理中心方面指出,今年紫菜出口大增得益于中日两国的产量减少带来的利好效果,紫菜生产业有必要实现产品的高端化和差异化,稳定出口需求,同时制定产品开发和营销策略,挖掘新需求。

  • Saudi Aramco IPO: Company valued at up to $1.71 trillion, may top Alibaba’s 2014 record

    The price range for Saudi Aramco shares published on Sunday ahead of an IPO indicates that the value of the oil giant is between $1.6 trillion to $1.7 trillion, which falls short of the initial $2 trillion target.

    The indicative price range for about 3 billion shares that Saudi Aramco offers is between 30 riyals ($8) and 32 riyals ($8.53) per share. This would bring anywhere between $24 billion and 25.6 billion into its coffers, depending on the final price that is to be announced on December 5. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. raised $25 billion in its 2014 IPO.

    The range indicates an assessment of between $1.6 trillion and $1.71 trillion for Saudi Aramco. The value falls short of the $2 trillion figure floated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2016, when the IPO was first proposed.

    The offering made at Tadawul, the national Saudi stock exchange, will allocate a third of the sold shares to Saudi citizens. The company is not planning to market the IPO abroad and counts on domestic and regional investors for subscription. Retail investors will have until November 28 to jump in, while institutional investors can subscribe as late as December 4.

    The IPO is meant to raise money for the crown prince’s ambitious goal of diversifying Saudi economy away from oil export. Investors are likely to be reassured by Aramco’s status, as the world’s most profitable company that plans to distribute $75 billion in dividends next year, which is five times more than Apple.

    Among the negative factors is a lack of financial and operational transparency that makes valuation harder, uncertainty over global demand for oil in upcoming years and regional tension, as indicated by a missile and drone attack on Aramco’s infrastructure in September.

  • 土耳其地毯出口居世界领先地位

    自今年1  –  9月份,土耳其的地毯出口创汇18亿美元。

    2018年土耳其居世界地毯出口首位,与在该领域其最强的竞争对手比利时间拉开达27亿美元的差距。

    根据2018年的地毯出口数据,比利时是世界第二大地毯出口国,出口额达18亿美元,中国是第三大国家,出口额为3.463亿美元。

    土耳其在2019年第三季度向世界各地进行的地毯出口额达18.01亿美元。

    土耳其向美国、德国、阿根廷、泰国、蒙古、毛里塔尼亚、新西兰和澳大利亚等国家出口地毯。

    美国是土耳其地毯的最大出口市场,地毯出口额超过了4.53亿美元。紧随其后的依次是沙特阿拉伯、德国、伊拉克、英国。

  • 日本打造高新科技道路:路面发电、数据传输……

    在被视为“沉睡资产”的道路上应用最新科技的动向在日本扩大。日本东京的一家新兴企业MIRAI-LABO开发出了配备光伏面板的道路铺装系统。高速公路的管理运营企业“中日本高速道路(NEXCO中日本)”正在开发使用埋入道路的传感器,发送自动驾驶所需数据的系统。着眼汽车的“CASE”(互联汽车、自动驾驶、共享和电动化)的普及,日本将正式挖掘总长约128万公里的国内道路的价值。

    发生拥堵的日本东名高速公路上行线(资料)

    2006年创立的MIRAI-LABO是一家开发紧急用电源等节能设备并向日本全国的警局和地方自治体销售的新兴企业。此次开发出通过太阳光发电的道路铺装系统“Solar Mobiway”。该系统使用特殊树脂覆盖在光伏面板上,代替道路的铺装材料。目前正在与大型道路铺装企业NIPPO推进性能测试,力争在2022年推向实用。

    普通的光伏面板抗冲击性能较差,容易开裂。MIRAI-LABO此次使用柔韧性好的材料,开发出抗冲击性强的面板。普通面板暴露在路面,容易出现汽车打滑和路面磨损的情况。为防止出现这些情况,将使用混合陶瓷片的透明树脂覆盖在面板上。

    另外,设置在大厦屋顶等场所的光伏面板如果遇到光照角度较小的情况,发电效率将会降低。据称该公司开发的铺装材料中的陶瓷能够改变太阳光的角度,有望起到全天提高发电量的效果。产生的电力将通过地下的电线存储至蓄电池内。还设想回收利用纯电动汽车(EV)等使用过的电池。

    日本国内的道路总长达128万公里左右,不过主要被用于汽车和人的移动,被视为“沉睡资产”。MIRAI-LABO的平塚利男社长推算“如果将一半的高速公路和国道铺装成发电型路面,产生的电力将可满足日本16.5%的用电量”。

    MIRAI-LABO着眼的是汽车的电动化和自动驾驶等“CASE”时代的正式到来。路面所发电力除了用于路灯、道路指示牌外,未来还设想用来为行驶中的纯电动车进行无线充电以及作为自动驾驶所需的道路状况相关数据通信的电源使用。再比如,自动驾驶汽车方面,如果发生因为停电而无法向汽车传输信息的状况,可能引发事故,但如果可以依靠道路来供电则可以带来很大的益处。

    将道路作为发电基地还有其他好处。在平地较少的日本,砍伐森林铺设光伏面板的情况较多,如果活用道路则可以避免破坏环境。即使因灾害引发停电,通过路面的光伏面板发电的话,仍可以维持信号和路灯正常使用。在再生能源的送电网不足成为问题的背景下,使用道路发电还有助于实现“自产自销”。

    日本国内的道路趋于老化,今后将迎来大规模的改造维修期。据日本国土交通省推算,今后30年,高速公路和普通道路需要超过2万亿日元的工程费用。由于道路老化对策的时期与CASE大潮到来的时期重叠,越来越多的企业开始开发埋入道路的最新科技。

    中日本高速道路将在高速公路上安装传感器和摄像头。该公司已经在东名高速等主要高速公路上埋入地磁传感器,收集交通拥堵等数据。今后,将以很短的间距设置高精度摄像头,从而可以不间断地对道路的运行状况进行监视。

    中日本高速道路管辖的约6成公路使用年限已达到30年,“自明年起,首都圏的主要公路将迎来整修期”(相关负责人)。如果新一代通信标准“5G”达到实用水平,高速公路上就能顺利收发大容量影像数据,向自动驾驶车发送数据等道路的附加值将获得提高。

    建筑公司大成建设与丰桥技术科学大学正在联合开发用于纯电动汽车的无线供电系统。在地面上铺设电极后,装有电力接受设备的纯电动汽车在路面行驶时便可接收电力。普利司通也在与东京大学等共同开发在道路上通过轮胎为汽车充电的技术。如果能在道路上供电,就能减少汽车配备的电池量,从而帮助汽车实现车身的轻量化。

    这些技术要走向普及面临的课题是成本。虽说MIRAI-LABO和NIPPO进行试验的发电型路面铺装材料“尚未到定价阶段”(NIPPO),但成本的大幅增加难以避免。今后有必要通过扩大生产规模来降低成本,或通过提高道路附加值来构建新的盈利模式。

    在日本以外国家,一些政府和企业也在加紧应对汽车的CASE,今后国际竞争将会更加激烈。比如,美国及法国等国家正在推进道路光伏发电技术的开发,但据称目前还没有出现明确的成功案例。

  • 密码保护:金价年底前或继续横向盘整 之后重拾涨势

    此内容受密码保护。如需查阅,请在下方输入密码。

  • 世界最大的巴西华裔族群如何生活和谋生

    巴西华裔族群共计30万人左右。虽然巴西不存在类似美国洛杉矶、法国巴黎或泰国曼谷的典型中国城,但这里有整整几条街,遍布着中国人开设的中餐馆和商店。俄罗斯卫星通讯社和广播电台记者在巴西出差时,造访了其中几个华人商店。

    中国“龙”在巴西

    入口处的大红灯笼、悬挂式中葡双语菜单……一家名为“龙”的小型中餐馆位于距巴西首都巴西利亚国家机关街区大约两公里处。时值午餐时间,餐馆内人声鼎沸。这里没有空调,只有风扇,但当地人对此不以介怀,哪怕是在正午时分,外面街道上的温度在30度开外。

    从互联网点评来看,“龙”是巴西利亚颇受欢迎的中餐馆。附近街道上还开设有另外2到3家亚洲餐馆。中餐馆“龙”仅有葡萄牙语菜单,也没有菜品图片,且只为华裔食客提供筷子。

    这家中餐馆大约在5年前开张,老板是在巴西利亚生活多年的一名华人。李女士在餐馆帮忙,服务那些不懂葡萄牙语的中国食客。她一人身兼数职,既是餐馆老板的助理,也是前台、服务员。李女士7年前从中国上海搬到巴西利亚,现在与丈夫、孩子和母亲在一起生活。

    适应巴西人的口味

    李女士说,巴西人非常喜欢米饭、豆类食品和一切煎炸食品。因此,餐馆菜单首先是根据地方口味编制的。

    李女士说:“我觉得,他们喜欢根据自己口味改良后的中国菜,比较咸、酱油比较多的那种。喜欢一些春卷、炒饭,就是巴西菜单上的这些菜。他们很喜欢油炸的东西:油炸的鱿鱼,鱼肉也要炸一下,蔬菜也要炸一下,鸡翅都是炸的,连饺子都要煎一下,不是煮的。春卷他们非常喜欢,几乎每个人都要吃春卷。”
    餐馆员工实行两班倒的制度:从上午10点到下午15点,或者从傍晚19点到夜间22点。用餐高峰时段是午餐时间。

    李女士说,“平时周一到周五是上班的人比较多,这边有一个写字楼,还有学生。周末就是家庭聚餐比较多,有很多人的家庭聚餐。 在巴西利亚,中国人本来就没有圣保罗那么多。像使馆就这附近,他们会过来吃饭。或者一些中资公司,像华为、中电子、建设银行等,他们都过来吃饭。今天你在的时候,就有中国人,一会儿他们还来。”
    中餐馆“龙”不举行庆祝华人最爱节日春节的晚会。李女士说,“巴西人不庆祝春节”。居住在巴西利亚的中国人在家包饺子,庆祝春节。
    另一件事情是巴西第一大城圣保罗市。这里有着巴西最大的华裔族群,共计20万人。他们主要是生活在市中心不远处的自由区(Liberdade)的当地华人,大多从事贸易和小生意,也有人是律师和医生。甚至有华人在本地政治机关中供职。

    不说“普通话”,只说葡萄牙语

    在大多情况下,当地华人是来自中国广东省或澳门市的移民,其中包括一些中葡混血——所谓澳门土生葡人(Macanese)。因此大部分巴西华人只说葡萄牙语或粤语。

    孔晶(Felipe)在位于圣保罗市中心三月二十五街(RUA 25 DE MARÇO)的一个售卖中国货的小型家族商店内工作。这里出售各种蔬菜、中国食品和餐具。他的父亲是20世纪80年代来到巴西的。孔晶介绍了家族生意是如何发端的:“父亲讲过,起初世道艰难。他借了一大笔钱盘了个小商店,每天经营13个小时,而所有当地居民的工作时间则是8个小时。他曾经营广东小吃,而现在我们拥有这个商店。起初做生意很难,当地政府压制生意发展——征收重税、甚至关闭中国店,借口非法生意逮捕店主。但随后一切就绪。考虑到中国和巴西之间紧密的经济联系,现在中国人不仅有做小生意的机会,也开始从事国际贸易。一些大型中国公司在巴西设有办公室。华裔社区在巴西得到了承认和尊重,也为当地慈善组织捐款。”

  • 俄罗斯最畅销的高档汽车都有哪些?

    “AUTOSTAT”分析机构的专家们对俄罗斯最畅销的高端汽车进行了评级。

    根据前2019年前九个月的评级结果,位居第一的是雷克萨斯RX ,汽车爱好者们已经购买了6437辆该款汽车。
    榜单上位居第二的是梅赛德斯-奔驰E级,其销售量为6002辆。 其次是宝马5系列(5204辆)和宝马X3(4373辆),排名第五的是雷克萨斯NX(4101辆)。
    此外,十大最畅销的高档车还有宝马X5、奔驰GLC、宝马3系、奔驰C级和雷克萨斯LX。

  • 俄能源部预计十年内对华煤炭出口量可较2018年水平翻一番

    俄罗斯能源部副部长阿纳托利·雅诺夫斯基在《能源政策》杂志发表署名文章称,十年内俄罗斯对中国的煤炭出口规模可较2018年水平翻一番,达到每年5500万吨。

    雅诺夫斯基指出,俄罗斯的煤炭储量大,煤炭产品品质优良,这都是俄罗斯在中国市场与亚太地区煤炭供应国竞争的优势。
    雅诺夫斯基写道:“中国是与韩国和日本一样,都是煤炭进口大国。而正是因为中国等国,俄罗斯才能稳居(继澳大利亚和印度尼西亚之后的)世界第三大煤炭出口国的地位。”

    他认为,由于俄中两国间的运输距离相对较短,俄罗斯对华煤炭供应量还具有很好的增长潜力。

    他说,预计今年俄罗斯对华煤炭出口可增长27%,达到3500万吨,对亚太地区国家的煤炭出口总量可达1亿吨左右。

    根据俄能源部5月的预测,俄罗斯2019年全年的煤炭出口总量可达2.25亿吨,同比增长7.1%,其中向亚太国家的出口量可占煤炭出口总量的近45%。

  • 日美欧资金循环变化:企业钱多、政府借债

    企业从银行借来家庭积攒的资金,对工厂等展开投资,以推动经济再次扩张——日美欧这种资金的循环正在发生异常变化。2000年代以后,日美欧的企业部门不用尽赚到的金钱的格局固定下来。即便已步入老龄化,家庭仍在持续积蓄资金。一方面,以猛烈的势头借贷过剩资金的则是政府,情况变得与以往的一般认识有所不同的日美欧经济将走向何方?

    一个国家的经济可以分为企业、家庭、政府和海外等4个部分。关注资金流动的“资金循环”统计显示,企业在传统上通过借贷来花费比收入更多的资金,属于“资金不足”的主体。

    另一方面,家庭一般来说则呈现为了将来而储蓄一部分收入的“资金过剩”状态。家庭的储蓄通过金融机构流向企业,企业为了推出新商品和服务而建设工厂和店铺。这种机制一直支撑着经济增长。按与国内生产总值(GDP)之比来看,1960~1980年代的日美企业大体上维持2~7%左右的资金不足。

    不过,在2000年代情况为之一变。据欧盟委员会统计,日美欧的企业部门合计自2002年起维持资金过剩的趋势,之后截至2018年累计超过10万亿美元。企业只在盈利的范围内展开投资的情况浮现。

    日本企业因1990年代后半期的金融危机而减少贷款,抑制了投资。美国也受2008年的雷曼危机影响,抱着资金不放的企业出现增加。

    背后存在产业结构的变化。在日美欧经济中,制造业的基地转移至新兴市场国家,数字产业等开始成为经济增长的核心。因此,展开像制造业那样的巨额设备投资的必要性下降。其代表是美国IT巨头“GAFA(谷歌、苹果、Facebook、亚马逊)”。谷歌母公司 Alphabet的净现金收支最近5年合计盈余约1000亿美元。

    日本一桥大学的祝迫得夫教授认为“看似有利可图的投资机会在减少”。由于潜在增长率低迷,企业难以找到有望获得相应回报的项目。信用等级低的企业的债务膨胀令人担忧,但从整体来看,被健全的企业的储蓄抵消。使用途径也多为再融资和投机性的企业收购等无法带来健康增长的情况。

    从家庭收支来看,过剩资金的增加日趋明显。日美欧迈向老龄化,本来不断动用储蓄的情况理应增加。但由于长寿化影响,人们对晚年的不安突出,长期工作、持续积攒金钱的人正在增加。

    一手借用这些过剩资金的是政府。在日美欧,过去30年政府部门的资金不足金额累计达到37万亿美元,企业和家庭的过剩资金(34万亿美元)全部被吸收。即便如此,以日欧为中心,很多国家的国债收益率降至负值区间。

    彼德森国际经济研究所的奥利维尔·布兰查德(Olivier Jean Blanchard)表示“国家背负债务,或许不是什么严重问题”。在利率低于增长率的现状下,财政赤字的容忍度将随之提高。监督各国财政的国际货币基金组织(IMF)的前首席经济学家的“财政扩张建议”引发了激烈讨论。

    日本上智大学的中里透副教授表示,“如果对经济低迷置之不理,将陷入通货紧缩。作为经济政策,难以选择财政健全化”,同时警告称“效率低下的开支增加,生产效率存在下降的风险”。政府能否找到比企业更能推动经济增长的资金的用途?在无法摆脱长期停滞的情况下,存在政府债务滚雪球般膨胀的风险。

  • 预测一下2035年的纯电动车全球市场

    日本调查公司富士经济(东京中央区)汇总的预测数据显示,到2035年纯电动汽车(EV)的全球市场规模(新车销量)将扩大至2018的16.9倍,达到2202万辆。预计将以中国和欧洲为中心快速增长,到2021年将超过先行一步的混合动力车(HV)的市场规模。最大市场中国2035年的市场规模将占到整体的5成。

    2018年的纯电动汽车全球市场规模较2017年增长71%至130万辆。受全球加强环保限制的趋势影响,纯电动汽车的销量出现增长。续航里程在400公里以上的车型上市,此外充电频率与汽油车的加油频率相仿,这也促使纯电动汽车的市场规模出现扩大。

    从各地区2035年的纯电动汽车市场规模来看,预计最大市场中国将增至2018年的13.7倍,达1056万辆,欧洲将增至2018年的32.1倍,达674万辆,仅次于中国。中国和德国的汽车厂商正在积极开发和销售纯电动汽车。

    预计2035年混合动力车的全球市场规模将达785万辆,是2018年的3.4倍。其中,日本市场占到2成左右。此次统计仅以高电压的“全混合动力(FULL HYBRID)”为对象,不包括海外汽车厂商采用的名为“弱混合动力(MILD HYBRID)”的简易型混合动力车。

  • 美联储金融稳定报告称金融体系极具韧性 警惕低利率和”稳定币”风险

    美国联邦储备委员会(美联储/FED)周五发布的报告指出,总体来看,美国金融体系稳定,但企业债务水平高企、全球利率长期处于低位的影响、以及"稳定币"提议的出现,都可能构成风险。

    在其最新出炉的半年度金融稳定报告中,美联储表示,自5月发布上一份稳定报告以来,金融体系状况几无变化,“金融业的核心看起来颇具韧性”。

    美联储指出,一些资产的估值较高,尤其是商业地产。但认为“风险偏好”仍符合“历史正常水平”,家庭债务”相对于收入处于温和水平",大型银行的"杠杆水平较低",对潜在波动性较大的短期融资工具的使用给金融机构构成的风险不大。

    但该报告强调指出,美联储仍担心创纪录的企业债务水平。一些联储官员担心,如果企业活动放缓,这些债务将成为坏账,并加剧任何可能出现的经济滑坡。此外,联储还表示,随着时间的推移,全球性的低借贷成本可能侵蚀银行、保险公司和养老基金的回报,促使它们进行风险更大的投资。

    随着时间的推移,新兴的金融技术,比如Facebook提议的“稳定币”加密货币网络,可能会带来问题。

    “当前极低的信贷利差,和风险较高的非金融企业的高负债,包括通过杠杆贷款产生的负债,相结合的局面值得我们提高警惕,”美联储理事布雷纳德在一份事先准备好的声明中表示,“从中期来看,长时间的低息环境,以及与此相关的追求收益和承担额外债务的动机,可能会增加金融脆弱性。"

    “展望未来,出现一个覆盖全球的"稳定币"网络,可能对金融稳定构成重大风险。”

  • 中国当前不存在持续通胀或通缩的基础 但要警惕通胀预期发散–央行报告

    中国央行三季度货币政策执行报告中的专栏文章称,当前中国不存在持续通胀或通缩的基础。CPI同比涨幅走高,结构性特征明显,要警惕通货膨胀预期发散。近几个月PPI同比降幅扩大主要是受基数效应影响,并不意味着存在显著的工业品通缩压力。稳健的货币政策保持松紧适度,促进总体物价水平保持在合理区间运行。

    以下是央行货币政策报告中,题为“全面看待CPI与PPI走势”专栏原文:

    消费者价格指数(CPI)和工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)分别是反映某一时期内消费领域和生产领域价格变动情况的重要经济指标。2019年以来,CPI由年初不到2%的水平逐步走高至10月份的3.8%,PPI从4月份0.9%的年内高点逐步下探至10月份的-1.6%,对此应全面分析、辩证看待。

    CPI同比涨幅走高,结构性特征明显,要警惕通货膨胀预期发散。2019年以来单月CPI 同比涨幅有所走高主要受食品价格尤其是猪肉价格较快上涨所拉动,关系到居民“菜篮子”消费成本,须引起重视并妥善应对。前十个月,食品价格同比上涨7.4%,其中受非洲猪瘟影响,生猪供给量下降较快,猪肉价格同比上涨29.7%,并通过消费替代效应带动牛肉、羊肉、蛋类价格分别同比上涨10.2%、11.7%和4.5%,是CPI上行的最主要拉动因素。此外,鲜菜、鲜果价格在个别月份受极端天气影响也出现了阶段性上涨,近期已回落趋稳。2019 年以来,除 品外的其他商品和服务价格基本保持稳定。前十个月,非食品价格、服务价格分别同比增长1.4%和1.8%,涨幅均处于近两年来的低位水平。其中,衣着、房租、旅游、医疗保健价格分别同比上涨1.7%、2.0%、2.0%和2.5%,均相对温和,交通和通信价格还同比下降1.7%。

    PPI低位运行,通常反映工业需求偏弱,但近几个月PPI同比降幅扩大主要是受基数效应影响,并不意味着存在显著的工业品通缩压力。10月份PPI同比下降的1.6个百分点中,有 1.2个百分点是翘尾因素,即受上年同期基数较高影响;有0.4个百分点是新涨价因素,主要是2019年1月份PPI环比下降了0.6%,6月份以来PPI月度环比变化表现出一定的回升迹象。总体来看,工业品价格并未出现明显下行压力,未来几个月随着基数效应的逐步消退,预计 PPI同比涨幅将回升。

    当前,中国经济运行总体平稳,总供求大体平衡,不存在持续通胀或通缩的基础。预计进入2020年下半年后,翘尾因素对PPI的影响将小于2019年且更加稳定,CPI受食品价格上涨的冲击将逐步消退,两者间的差距有望趋于收窄。下一阶段,稳健的货币政策保持松紧适度,根据经济增长和价格形势变化及时预调微调,稳定经济主体的通胀预期,促进总体物价水平保持在合理区间运行。

  • 密码保护:竞争对手石油产量大增将令OPEC+在2020年面临“重大挑战”–IEA

    此内容受密码保护。如需查阅,请在下方输入密码。

  • The future is fluid as labels sign up for gender-free fashion

    Pop stars and designers drive a growing trend for non-binary outfits

    When two of the biggest pop stars on the planet sign up to a fashion movement, you know something must be afoot. On Wednesday, Rihanna posted a photo of herself to her 76.8 million followers on Instagram wearing a T-shirt by London-based fashion label Art School. Last month, Harry Styles put out his video for Lights Up in which he wears a blue silk moire suit designed by long-time collaborator Harris Reed.

    Both Art School and Harris Reed identify themselves as non-binary labels. On Instagram, Art School defines itself as “a non-binary queer luxury label”, while Harris Reed is “fighting for the beauty of fluidity”. Despite there being a long history of LGBTQI designers working in fashion (McQueen and Lagerfeld among the most famous), they have notably been cis-identifying, white men. The label of “non-binary” in fashion is new (Collins recently announced it was adding “non-binary” to its dictionaries) and pertinent to a younger generation where more than one in 10 millennials identify as transgender or gender non-conforming. There are a clutch of new fashion labels, from One DNA to Riley Studio, that offer the same clothes to everyone, and where dividing your fashion into gendered lines feels out-of-date.

    “Previously, fashion was very binary – it was men’s or women’s, and you never could transgress between the two,” Preston Souza, chief of staff and buyer at The Phluid Project, New York’s first gender-free clothes shop, explained to website Rivet. “And what is really beautiful is that Generation Z is rejecting these labels. Sixty per cent of Generation Z will shop across gendered sections, proof that these binary structures are slowly phasing out.”

    Younger stars like Billie Eilish, Yungblud and Lil Uzi Vert dress androgynously and speak openly of shopping across the genders (“The women’s section is waaaaay better than the men’s section,” Lil Uzi Vert told US GQ).

    Mainstream fashion is playing catch-up. New York fashion week featured 36 models who identified as transgender or gender non-conforming (30 more than last season), while Pose star Indya Moore was the first non-binary person to be the face of a Louis Vuitton campaign.

    “It’s not about a girl wearing a suit or a guy wearing a heel, it’s about you feeling yourself and feeling the fantasy and the look,” designer Christopher John Rogers, who has dressed Michelle Obama, Lizzo and whose label won the prestigious CFDA/Vogue Fashion Fund award earlier this month, told The Fader. “It’s about queerness in terms of you fully embodying the nuances of yourself when dressing up.”

    With high street brands such as Zara and H&M doing gender-neutral lines, this could be the future for fashion. But for the creatives at the heart of this change, there are deeper issues at stake. “To see someone as powerful as [Rihanna] wearing [our label] is really important,” says Eden Loweth, who has run Art School with partner Tom Barratt for three years. For him, “non-binary” is more than a trend: there’s a political element too. “When we formed Art School, we wanted it to be more than a label, more than just about whacking out clothes on the catwalk. It’s about supporting the rights of our [queer]community.”

    Eden says that their company is a non-binary one to its core. “Words like ‘queer’ and ‘trans’ are used quite a bit [in fashion] but we are the only brand who work with the entire community,” he says, adding that they do extensive castings, so models are representative of their queer collective. From now on, he says, the onus is on the bigger brands.

    “The next step is for fashion to stop seeing gender fluidity as a trend,” fashion and lifestyle blogger Ben Pechey says, “but to see us as real people and ensure that the queer community is given more rights, safety and respect”.

  • ‘My flat was £161,950 in 2007 – now I’m offered just £28,000’

    Some apartments from Britain’s biggest retirement builder have dived in value due to hefty charges

    McCarthy & Stone’s Laurel Court in Folkestone, where Tony Cross’s father was one of the first buyers Photograph: Martin Godwin/The Guardian
    When Tony Cross’s father was the first buyer at a McCarthy & Stone retirement development in Folkestone, Kent, he thought he was getting a bargain. The sales rep offered him an “early bird” discount, knocking £3,000 off the cost of a one-bed flat, selling it to him for £161,950 in 2007. But since inheriting it four years ago, Cross has been unable to find a buyer, and is considering selling it to a “buy it now” company – for just £28,000.

    How could a relatively newly-built apartment in good condition, with more than 100 years remaining on the lease, collapse in value so spectacularly? The average apartment in Folkestone has gone up in price from £137,000 to £162,000 since 2007 – so why is the McCarthy & Stone flat potentially going for less than the price of a garage in the seaside town?

    McCarthy & Stone is the biggest builder of retirement flats in Britain, with 1,200 developments across the country, and sales of about £700m a year, but has faced repeated accusations of poor resale values.

    Perhaps even more shocking is the council tax bill on Cross’s one-bed flat, which has spiralled to £3,000 this year and is heading to £4,500 next year – or more than the tax on a multimillion-pound mansion in Mayfair.

    When Cross first inherited the flat in 2015, the estate agents put it on the market for £143,000. But there wasn’t a sniff of interest. It was reduced to £135,000, then £120,000. Cross changed agents seven times. The valuation kept falling – to £99,000, then £89,000, then £69,000, then £59,000. But even at this price, he can’t find a buyer.

    Why not? Cross blames what he describes as the “punitive” service charge on the one-bed flat. Last year the charge was £562 every month – equal to £6,744 a year, although this year it dropped back to £519 a month. On top of that, the ground rent is a further £415 a year. In other words, a retired person could be paying nearly all their state pension in service and ground rent charges.

    “The feedback from the selling agents is that the high cost of service charges puts people off buying,” says Cross.

    While the flat has been on the market, Cross has been liable for the service charge, ground rent and council tax, shelling out £18,000 so far. “I’m going to go bankrupt at this rate,” he says. “In total it’s costing me £900 a month to keep. I’ve got my own home to pay for, and you can’t run two houses on a normal wage. It’s been one huge money pit. One of the buy-it-now companies has offered me as little as £15,000 for it. The stress has been so much, and to be honest it’s made me so stroppy and moody, it’s cost me my relationship too.”

    Cross says that when he researched Land Registry figures, he found that other flats in the development had been sold for £99,000 when new. “So much for the early bird discount,” he says.

    Cross is not alone in finding that retirement flats can be a poor investment. Figures prepared for the BBC in 2017 by the Elderly Accommodation Counsel, a charity, found that about half of new-build retirement homes sold during a 10-year period were later resold at a loss. But more recent research from the EAC showed that retirement flats built since 2009 have increased their value upon resale.

    That’s no comfort for many who bought in Cross’s development, Laurel Court. A flat bought in April 2010 for £150,000 sold for £75,000 last year. Another purchased for £151,000 in November 2009 sold for £105,000 in April this year. A two-bed flat in the block is currently listed on Rightmove at £45,000, and is the cheapest property for sale in the whole of Folkestone. The agent says it is in “impeccable condition” but warns that service charges apply. When Guardian Money checked this week, there were 18 listings on Rightmove of flats in Laurel Court, many with “reduced” stickers.

    Of the other flats going cheap in Folkestone, many are in Pleydell Court – another McCarthy & Stone development. The most recent sale there was for £80,000, a £15,000 fall from the price it sold for 11 years earlier.

    One problem is the very limited range of people allowed to buy. Like most retirement developments, it only permits couples aged over 55 or single people aged over 60. What’s more, mainstream mortgage firms won’t lend against these types of retirement properties.

    “They are really lovely, immaculate flats, with a lovely communal lounge,” said one Folkestone estate agent contacted by Guardian Money. “But people are just very wary about the service charges, which on the two-bedders are around £7,500 a year.”

    Council tax has turned into a nightmare for Cross. He showed Guardian Money his latest bill from Folkestone and Hythe council. Although the one-bed flat is only a band B property – one band above the lowest valuation – this year’s bill is £2,969.44. Next year it will rise to nearly £4,500.

    Cross has been caught by the empty homes premium, an initiative designed to bring longstanding empty homes back into use. It allows councils in England to double the council tax on properties empty for two years, and triple it if they have been empty for five.

    As Cross’s home has sat on the market since 2015, the local council has applied the doubling in tax, and can triple it next year. Cross says the flat was initially left empty after his father had to go into special care before he died. He says he can’t be the only person in a situation to have inherited a retirement flat and not left it empty out of choice but because they can’t find a buyer. Even if he let it out, he says he has been advised the rent would be about £600 a month at most, leaving him with an ongoing loss every month.

    When Cross does find a buyer, there is a final sting in the tail – he will have to give the freeholder a 2% share of the proceeds. He says he has also been asked for £324 for a “seller’s pack”.

  • Boo-hoo billionaires: why America’s super-wealthy are afraid for 2020

    As Warren and Sanders have gone on the attack, some plutocrats are getting angry at the billionaire-bashing – and others are running for the White House

    Michael Bloomberg is making moves to enter the 2020 race – and some of his fellow billionaires are already coming out for him.
    Michael Bloomberg is making moves to enter the 2020 race – and some of his fellow billionaires are already coming out for him. Photograph: Scott Eisen/Getty Images
    The 1996 US election was all about the “soccer mom”; 2004 belonged to the “Nascar dads”; Donald Trump won the White House with a “basket of deplorables”. Every election cycle seems to have a key demographic said to define the race, and 2020 is no different. This is the campaign of the “boo-hoo billionaire”.

    There’s a billionaire in the White House and two of the top Democratic rivals for Trump’s job, senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, have made ever-widening income inequality central to their campaign.

    “I don’t think that billionaires should exist,” Sanders said recently, citing the “immoral level of income and wealth inequality” that has only deepened under the Trump administration.

    One billionaire bid for the White House has already flamed out. Howard Schultz, Starbuck’s former barista-in-chief, ended his run almost as soon as it had begun chased away by angry crowds who labeled him an “egotistical billionaire asshole!”

    Howard Schultz called ‘billionaire elite’ by heckler in New York – video
    That hasn’t stopped another billionaire, hedge-fund mogul Tom Steyer, running for the Democratic nomination. And now former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg, founder of the eponymous media empire, is also making moves to enter the race, fired up by the billionaire bashing. Ironically, Bloomberg (net worth $52.3bn) signaled his intention to get in the race by getting his name on the ballot in Alabama, one of the poorest states in the union with a median household income of $48,123.

    Kevin Kruse, professor of history at Princeton University and co-author of Fault Lines: A History of the United States Since 1974, believes there’ll be more to come. “The Trump candidacy made a lot of them think, ‘Well, if this guy with his inherited wealth, who went bankrupt all the time, if he can do it, why not me?’”

    The mistake they make is ignoring Trump’s charisma and “huckster showmanship”, said Kruse. “They think because they have even more money they will have more charisma. That’s not the case, It wasn’t with Schultz, it isn’t with Steyer and it’s not going to be with Bloomberg,” he said. “The idea that Mike Bloomberg is going to do well in Alabama is insane.”

    That’s not what the billionaires think. As Warren and Sanders have stepped up their attacks, a host of plutocrats have gone public with their anger at all this billionaire-bashing, and some are already coming out for Bloomberg.

    For them, this is personal. The “great plute freakout of 2019” as Anand Giridharadas, the author of Winner Takes All, a recent study of the deleterious impact of elites, has called it, is literally reducing billionaires to tears.

    Asked about his views on the 2020 election on CNBC earlier this month, moist-eyed investment giant Leon Cooperman, worth $3.2bn according to Forbes, could barely hold back the tears.

    “I care. That’s it,” he sobbed, eyes cast down and shuffling papers.

    Cooperman has clashed with Warren in recent months after she proposed higher taxes on the super wealthy. “I believe in a progressive income tax and the rich paying more. But this is the fucking American dream she is shitting on,” Cooperman told Politico.

    “The vilification of billionaires makes no sense to me,” Cooperman told CNBC. He called her policies “idiocy” and said it was “appealing to the lowest common denominator, and basically trying to turn people’s heads around by promising a lot of free stuff”.

    Warren responded with a tweet, saying: “One thing I know he cares about – his fortune. He’s a shareholder in Navient, a student loan company that has cheated borrowers and used abusive, misleading tactics. He even went so far as to ask how I might impact his investment in the last earnings call with Navient.”

    Her campaign is now selling mugs stamped with Billionaire Tears.

    Days later, a far perkier Cooperman went on CNBC to celebrate the news that the “terrific” Bloomberg was potentially in the race. “He’s a unifier, he’s bright, he’s immensely successful, he’s been extremely generous with his resources,” he said.

    Cooperman was particularly impressed that as New York’s mayor, Bloomberg successful blocked a proposed billionaires tax. “He resisted, and he explained that if you lose one billionaire, you lose more revenue than you are gonna get from everyone else. So he understands how the system works.”

    The problem for this caterwauling Croesus and his cohorts is that, in fact, many billionaires know that the system does not work. Over the last few years a bevy of billionaires have warned that the society that created them faces an existential threat in income inequality.

    The yawning gap between rich and poor is now a “national emergency”, hedge-fund king Ray Dalio ($18.7bn) wrote in an 8,000-plus-word blogpost on Linkedin back in April. Dalio’s fears have been echoed by JP Morgan boss Jamie Morgan ($1.6bn), Warren Buffett ($87bn) and others but none have matched his devastating and detailed critique.

  • 楼市销售陷阱

    瑞信的一份报告指出,一些公寓项目的退回单位数量令人咋舌,严重扭曲了官方每月统计及公布的市场销售数据的准确度。(档案照片)

    “卖一买二”投资策略是特别针对那些拥有价格涨得相当不错的组屋夫妇客户群。这个策略并不适合每个人,进行这种有风险的投资,夫妻俩必须有相当高的收入,并且经济稳定,或者有一定的闲钱。总之,屋主要量力而为,不要被房地产经纪的销售手法所迷惑。

    最近,有媒体报道了房地产经纪近期惯用来游说买家投资房地产“卖一买二”的投资策略,有关当局也点出这种投资策略的潜在风险。

    这种在市场上已存在一阵子的“卖一买二”投资策略,是特别针对那些拥有价格涨得相当不错的组屋夫妇客户群。

    经纪一般会建议他们先把组屋卖掉,然后夫妇俩以自己的名字各自购买一套公寓,再用卖屋的钱来支付这两套公寓单位的首期付款。

    两套公寓单位,一套用来自住,另一套出租,这样一来,既有新公寓住又能赚取租金收入,这个“卖一买二”的投资策略简直太完美了。

    乍看之下,这种房地产投资方式确实有它诱人之处。假设公积金储蓄足够偿还两套公寓的部分贷款,每个月的租金收入又能支付每月的剩余房贷,夫妇俩可能都不必动用月薪来补贴这个房地产投资。

    最吸引人的地方还是,因为夫妇俩是以自己的名字各买一套公寓,就可避免因购买第二个房地产而得支付的12%额外买方印花税。

    实际上,“卖一买二”投资策略对组屋提升者真的有那么完美吗?

    “卖一买二”风险可能更大
    这种房地产投资策略在媒体曝光后,引起有关当局的关注,并提醒屋主注意隐藏的风险,尤其是在目前全球经济低迷的大环境下,风险可能更大,只要夫妇俩其中一个丢了工作而无法马上找到相等薪金的工作,或出租的房子无法获得理想的租金收入,都可能导致全家必须承受两个贷款所带来的经济压力。

    看来这个策略并不适合每个人,进行这种有风险的投资,夫妻俩必须有相当高的收入,并且经济稳定,或者有一定的闲钱。总之,屋主要量力而为,不要被房地产经纪的销售手法所迷惑。

    经济不景气,新公寓项目仍一个接一个推出,甚至一星期内有好几个新项目同时登场,面对竞争激烈的新公寓市场,房地产经纪为了推销房子,用尽各种奇招怪术在所难免,也是可以理解的,但一些经纪的推销手法却令人难以苟同。

    经纪出示选购权书游说买房
    有读者爆料,他最近和朋友去一个刚放盘的公寓项目看房,接待他的经纪热心促销,企图以其三寸不烂之舌说服他预订一个两卧室的单位,他正犹豫不决时,这个经纪告诉他自己也定了一套,还出示自己签下的选购权书(option to purchase,简称OTP),经纪这一招,果然增强了这名读者购房的信心。

    后来他发现,接待他朋友的另一名经纪也说自己预定了一套两卧室的单位,同样也出示了选购权书。两人告诉他们的经纪需要时间考虑后,就在现场走走,竟然发现有不少经纪采用这种销售方式。

    看到这种现象,这两名潜在买家心中不免产生疑问:如果现场有三分之一的经纪都签了选购权书,那这个项目不是可以很快就卖完了?这些经纪是有诚意的买家吗?

    针对读者的疑问,我向一些熟悉这个行业的朋友了解,他们认为这种销售方式是可能存在的,有一些经纪为了拉客、增加销售说服力,以让潜在买家安心订购单位,不惜出此一招。

    业界的朋友透露,在签下选购权书的经纪当中,不乏真正的买家,但不排除有些经纪是为了推销房子而出的奇招。这些经纪在签下选购权书后,一般必须在三个星期内执行选购,若没法执行选购,他将有可能被发展商没收相当于屋价的1.25%定金。

    但以现在的市场惯例,一般发展商都可通融,允许重新发多一份选购权书,而经纪又有多三个星期使用新的选购权书来推销公寓。就这样一直向发展商要求重发新的选购权书,直到没有办法再重发,才会失去定金,而这也就当作“退回公寓单位”。

    所谓退回单位(returned units),指的是买家签署选购权书和支付定金后,却改变主意决定退回单位。买家支付的部分定金以至全部定金会被卖家或发展商没收。

    高佣金促成经纪“买房来卖房”
    对一个佣金可达2.5%的经纪来说,能够做成几宗交易或卖出至少一个相等于买进户型的单位,即使被没收定金,他还是有钱赚的。换句话说,只要房地产经纪的佣金越高,这一招就更凑效。

    不难发现,市场上新项目越多,竞争越激烈,一些发展商越愿意支付较高的佣金,房地产经纪因此就有空间使出这种“买房来卖房”的销售策略。

    这种“买房来卖房”的销售伎俩虽然未必会对购屋者造成损失,但它肯定是不良的销售手法,因为买家可能会被经纪的选购权书误导而做出购房决定。更严重的是,这些没有执行的选购权书也大大影响了官方每月收集来统计市场数据的准确度。对此,市区重建局已经开始在每月为上一个月所发布的数据做出适当的调整。

    根据9月份的一项统计数据,在该月售出和退回的公寓项目单位比率参差不齐。9月份卖得最好的是新登场的Park Clematis,售出的316个单位,只有一个单位退回。

    但是,一些也卖得不错的项目如Parc Botannia卖出了61个单位,可是当月退回的单位却高达38个,占售出数量的六成。

    数据显示,本地一些新私宅项目的退回单位近期走高,而买家放弃定金,把新购单位退回给发展商的因素各异。市场人士发现,一些越多人排队抢购的项目,退回单位比率越高,买家可能因一时冲动或经不起经纪游说,签下了选购权书,事后才发现自己负担不起,只好把它退回给发展商。

    重发选购权书不仅是房地产经纪的销售手法,当然也有较普遍的因素是上述提到的买家改变主意,或者买家更换个人资料。而组屋提升者一般需要多一点时间解决贷款和资金问题等,所以多数会要求发展商重发选购权书,发展商通常会通融而重发给买家。

    今年2月,瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)发布了一份报告,指出本地一些公寓项目的退回单位数量有上升的趋势,特别是自去年7月的降温措施实行以来,一些公寓项目的退回单位数量令人咋舌,严重扭曲了官方每月统计及公布的市场销售数据的准确度。

    报告提到,这当中的原因是一些发展商为了锁住买家,愿意通融买家要求多次重发选购权书所致。甚至有些发展商也没有因买家无法执行选购权书而没收部分定金。

    无论是买家或卖家,都需要有一套能够真正反映房地产市场的数据作为参考。千奇百怪的房地产销售手法在所难免,但经纪适当的销售方式才能找到真正的买家,买家也必须量力而为,谨慎考虑后才签下选购权书,不可举棋不定,草草了事。更重要的是,买房前要做好功课,却忌跟风,才不会掉入楼市的销售陷阱。

  • If you felt Disney’s Frozen didn’t have enough climate & toxic masculinity propaganda for your kid, you’ll LOVE its new sequel

    The shiniest new weapon in Disney’s all-out woke culture war, Frozen 2, which comes out later this month, will teach your toddler to be a better man and encourage you to buy that electric car. Will that make for a good cartoon?
    The first Frozen came out six years ago and it was met with near-universal praise and acclaim. Yes, some thought it had a subversive feminist and possibly even pro-LGBT agenda. The idea of Elsa’s dangerous powers being repressed in secret was awfully reminiscent of the X-Men films, a comic book franchise embraced by pretty much every minority group that feels ostracized in some way. But, aside from some whispers here and there, almost everybody enjoyed the original Frozen. That was six years ago. Before Trump, Brexit, and #MeToo happened.

    Idina Menzel, the Broadway phenom who plays Queen Elsa, said of the film’s male lead that he is “sort of fighting this toxic masculinity and making him really comfortable with his emotions, making him be real supportive of the women in his life and not telling them what to do.” In other words Kristoff, who is ostensibly a Scandinavian iceman, is one of those huffsplainers who wears shirts that say “This is what a feminist looks like.” I have no idea how a guy like that could make a living cutting and selling ice but apparently that’s what Disney thinks the world needs now. Long gone are the days of Aladdin’s rebellious diamond in the rough…oh, wait… Disney literally just made a billion dollars repackaging and rereleasing that story six months ago. Mena Massoud may not be Arnold Schwarzenegger but his Aladdin was still more interested in sweeping Jasmine off her feet than he was concerned with “being comfortable with her emotions.”

    But that’s just the tip of the Iceberg. The plot of Frozen 2 is entirely a piece of climate change propaganda. The Telegraph put it best when they wrote that Parents should prepare themselves for catchy tunes and “being blamed for the destruction of the planet.” The plot is all about how Queen Elsa and Princess Anna’s ancestors were colonial monsters who gave the environment no regard. Disney thinks this will appeal to all the little Greta Thunbergs running around.

    Of course this isn’t really anything new in terms of animated fare. When I was a child there was the atrocious Ferngully: The Last Rainforest. It was basically the story of a magical rainforest run by fairies being attacked and destroyed by evil industrialists. Turns out there are still rainforests but, sadly (#sarcasm), Kroyer films, the production company that made Ferngully, is no longer with us. Then there was the equally stupid Saturday morning cartoon Captain Planet. The only thing I remember about him (because I refuse to visit that Wikipedia page) is that he was some kind of environmental superhero whose main attribute was a green mullet, oh and Don Cheadle’s (the MCU’s War Machine) hilarious parody version. Overtly political filmmaking is rarely compelling or successful, especially when it’s directed at children.

    I’m not saying that Frozen 2 will be the last film Disney makes, far from it, but this is either a pathetic attempt to spin a mainstream family film in a politically correct direction or an unfortunate boot-licking tendency that Disney has developed to try to placate the SJW hordes. Frozen was wonderful for the same reason all great films are delightful, it told a meaningful yet simple story full of a cast of relatable characters. That’s all any story really needs. As long as Frozen 2 does this, no one, from the wokiest blogger to the angriest yellow-vester, will really care about its politics. Francis Ford Coppola’s Godfather films were supposed to be a critique of capitalism but that’s got absolutely nothing to do with how beloved they’ve become. In fact, I’d say the popularity of films like that grows in spite of the politics of the filmmakers. Still, it’s a pretty gross thing to witness what should be a movie everyone can enjoy become mired in stupid political battles. The best stories reach beyond the topical and strike at the profound. That’s what made the first Frozen great and, hopefully, is what will make the sequel great as well, despite all the attempts at politicization.

  • China’s new communes: self-sustainability in Fujian province

    On a narrow dirt path, soft with morning dew, Tang Guanhua brushes through dense thicket. “When we first arrived, there was no path, nothing,” says the 30-year-old, clad in all-black baggy cotton trousers and a cardigan, breaking off some newly grown bamboo branches. “It was all overgrown, we had to clear the land and build these trails. It took a lot of time and effort.”
    Sounds of a nearby village’s crowing roosters and puttering motorcycles recede with each stride though this verdant tunnel. Tang stops and surveys a clearing vista of rolling hills overgrown with purple wildflowers, ferns and rhododendron. Mist rolls down the sides of the framing mountains, into the valley, where deciduous trees hide myriad chirping birds, and only a keen eye can spot the traces of human existence, also, and very purposefully, hidden here.
    “This,” says Tang, “is our land.”
    Since 2015, Tang and his wife, Xing Zhen, have been living in a reclusive, mountainous part of Minhou county, in southeastern Fujian province, about two hours’ drive from the capital, Fuzhou. Joined by a small band of like-minded Chinese, most in their early 30s, they have turned their backs on city life to form “Another Community”.

    Other, older, more successful self-sufficient communes in mainland China count at least 100 members. Tang’s Another Community numbers about a dozen, and some don’t live here full time as they cannot yet sustain themselves without working odd jobs. From a children’s book designer to a public-health expert, a film­maker to a Cisco security expert, members used to grind out a living in the mainland’s mega­cities, which Tang describes as “a homogenous, single-minded value system”. The commune, on the other hand, formu­lates its goals by committee. It is aiming for 30 residents by the end of 2020, 150 by 2030 and 300 by 2036.
    Laying the foundation, Tang and Xing believe, is the most arduous part. “In the future, with enough people, we can do everything ourselves,” Xing says.

    Unlike Western hippies in the 1960s – many of whom found their own ideals of communalism in the misty mountains of Yunnan province, where some remain – Another Community has no political objective. Instead, it draws from environmental, spiritual and holistic com­munes, such as the monastic Taizé fraternity, in France, the ZEGG ecovillage, in Germany, and the Tamera peace-research village, in Portugal. But one of the biggest influ­ences for Tang were the books of a British environmentalist.

    Born in 1914, John Seymour spent time with African tribes, who depended only on nature and one another. The experience left him deeply affected, and inspired him to write The Complete Book of Self-Sufficiency (1976), which sold more than a million copies in 20 languages, including Chinese, to the Love Generation. It has since been updated for the Tangs and Xings of late capitalism.
    Instead of bragging about their careers or snapping photos of meals in fancy restaurants, commune members aim to live in harmony with nature, free of societal pressures and expectations, working towards self-sufficiency – in electricity, food, clothing, soap – and their mission state­ment, to “let natural energy flow and return to nature”. But far from being anti­thetical to urban existence, “we wanted society to see that there can be many other ways of life that give people dignity”, says Tang.
    Having grown up in Qingdao, a city in Shandong province that now has a popula­tion of nine million, Tang saw pressure on resources increase, personal space diminish and housing prices multiply.

    Wang Hailong, 34, used to work in management at a private primary school in Beijing, a good job that provided him with a small but comfort­able flat. He had a loving family and enjoyed spend­ing weekends with his friends. But still he felt a deep dis­satisfaction. He travel­led through the main­land as far as the Tibetan plateau, where he saw nomadic high-plains herders who, though poor, seemed at peace. When he learned of Tang’s attempts to start a self-sufficient com­mune through an online fund­raiser, he was intrigued.
    “I had no idea then what the community would be like,” says Wang. But four years after he first boarded a plane from Beijing to Fujian, he is now a cornerstone of Another Community. “In cities, you always compare yourself to others, what they have, and that makes you really nervous.”
    His job and his flat in Beijing are gone, and he couldn’t be more relieved. “Even if we had money here, there’s no place to spend it,” he says.
    In his black-rimmed glasses and brandedjacket, Wang still looks like a city boy, but his jeans hang loosely on skinny legs as he drives a spade into the ground. Farm work is “a new thing for me”, he says, unearthing rain­worms and cockchafer grubs – some tiny, others thick as fingers, but once exposed, all wriggle back under – signs of fertile, healthy soil.

    The lease for the commune’s 202 hectare plot – almost three times the size of Beijing’s Forbidden City – costs 200,000 yuan (HK$223,500) a year and is paid for by the Zhenro Foundation, which is committed to advancing society by supporting innovative projects endeavouring to use environmental resources more efficiently. “It’s a good match,” Tang says (out of the 100 or so organisations he wrote to seeking funding, it was the only one that replied).
    Decisions regarding land use, which crops to grow, and consumption of electricity or water are reached through discussions in which each member’s voice is heard and respected. Though democratic in principle, Tang says it’s more “consensus-based”. And while Another Community does not elect a leader or have a hierarchy, there is a division of labour. Wang is in charge of farming.
    Where he used to grow herbs in little pots in his Beijing flat, now he grows carrots, potatoes, beans and corn. He has to take scale into account, observe the weather, assess the fertility of the soil and find suitable crops. None of the members had any farming experience, so Wang took it upon himself to study agriculture, forestry cultivation and natural farming at the provincial univer­sity. Others are enrolled in classes that teach self-sus­tenance, including farming, sewing and how to safely work with electricity.
    The hardest part, says Xing, has been making their own clothes – growing fibre, spinning it into thread, weaving it into textiles and sewing a wearable garment. Xing set up a studio on the ground floor of a rented farmhouse, equipped with three looms that she built from scratch; a beam of sun­light hits the indigo-dyed threads as she rhythmically push­es the strings together. A shirt takes about two weeks to make, and that doesn’t include the time needed to plant, grow and harvest kudzu, a fast-growing vine whose fibre has been woven into fabrics for more than 5,000 years. In the past, commune members tried growing cotton, and bought yak wool from Tibet, but neither seemed sustainable.

    The meals they eat are another sign they have a long way to go. Rice for porridge is bought from a nearby organic farm, and though the dark-coloured, herbal liquor served after the evening hotpot is home-brewed, they rely on store-bought sauces and meat, purchased with savings or dona­tions. But this doesn’t faze them. It is a long-term project, and given the concrete lives they left behind, return­ing to nature was bound to take time. As Tang plunges his chop­sticks into the hotpot for a piece of spicy chicken, he explains that this hasn’t been his first attempt at creating a self-sustaining community.
    Around 2010, Tang lived in a small hut on Laoshan, a mountain located about 30km from Qingdao. On a slope often shrouded in mist, he learned about planting seasons and natural fertilisers; how to extract salt from seawater and brew his own vinegar, soy sauce and beer.
    “Another Land” inspired his Qingdao friends and attracted hundreds of volunteers, from univer­sity students to office workers, all curious about Tang’s attempt to be at one with nature. They made soap, crafted shoes and clothes, and installed solar panels and a self-made wind turbine. At times, they used a bicycle to generate electricity.
    Tang says that until they learned how to make their own cooking pots, their diet consisted largely of raw peppers, but despite the hardships, he was content and would look out on the land and contemplate the day’s achievements and failures with pride – a feeling he says he never had in Qingdao.

  • 人工智能挑选出东京最好的100家拉面店

    源自东京大学的初创企业TDAI Lab发布了“人工智能(AI)挑选的百家拉面名店”的东京都内版。据称由人工智能根据互联网上的评价,在剔除疑似“刷好评”和“恶意差评”的情况下进行了统计,选出了评价高的店铺。

    本次调查利用了“谷歌地图”网站上2019年1月1日以后东京都内拉面店的评价。剔除了人工智能判断为故意给出的高评价、以及被人工智能认定为只给差评的人的评价,提高了信息的可靠性。

    结果,评价居前100的店有“青岛食堂秋叶原店”和“拉面二郎云雀之丘站前店”等。不仅是日本全国有名的拉面店,还包含各地区的实力店铺。

    TDAI Lab公司认为,“由于互联网上的刷好评和恶意差评,消费者和餐饮店都在失去机会”。该公司将面向点评网站等推销自身的人工智能,力争第一年度有50家企业引进。该公司把东京大学准教授鸟海不二夫的研究室的研究成果推向商业化。

  • 包商银行市场化改革重组正推进 加强中小银行公司治理–央行报告

    中国央行周六发布的三季度货币政策执行报告称,包商银行接管托管工作进展顺利,第一阶段大额债权收购与转让工作顺利完成,第二阶段清产核资工作已基本完成,第三阶段市场化改革重组工作正在推进。

    报告指出,包商银行正常经营,未出现客户挤兑等群体性事件。实施接管发挥了及时“止血”作用,制止了金融违法违规行为。央行通过多种方式向市场投放流动性,通过货币政策操作及时稳定了市场信心,有效遏制了包商银行风险向其他中小银行蔓延。

    “以收购承接方式处置包商银行风险,既最大限度保护了客户合法权益,又依法依规打破了刚性兑付,实现对部分机构的激进行为纠偏,进而强化市场纪律,促进了金融市场的合理信用分层。”报告称。

    央行表示,下一步将会同有关部门继续完善包商银行改革重组方案。同时,抓紧补齐监管制度短板,加强中小银行股东管理和公司治理,推动中小银行健康发展。

    中国央行与银保监会于5月24日对包商银行实施接管。银保监会官员周二表示,包商银行正在进行清产核资和股东遴选相关工作,当前中小金融机构风险可控。

  • 密码保护:分析师观点:中国央行称加强逆周期调节 市场化改革降低实体融资成本

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  • 密码保护:美国企业认为即便经济整体前景黯淡 消费支出仍然可圈可点

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  • 没有马云的阿里巴巴会是什么样?

    阿里巴巴集团董事局主席马云于9月10日卸任。马云自1年前开始减持阿里巴巴股权,在内部推进大规模组织改革等,向公司内外彰显出新体制即将在自己指名为接班人的首席执行官(CEO)张勇领导下启动。阿里创立至今迎来20年,首次更替一把手能否顺利进行?

    在一年前的2018年,马云提名张勇为接班人前后,阿里内部开始出现“很奇怪,为什么马云的接班人不是出自创始成员”的不满之声。

    阿里巴巴1999年由包括当过英语教师的马云在内的18个伙伴“十八罗汉”创建。十八罗汉的说法源自佛教中把获得最高领悟的高僧称为十八罗汉。部分成员认为马云的接班人应从“十八罗汉”中选出。

    但是,马云本人认为接班人不考虑张勇以外的其他人,不受周围人看法的影响,在最近1年里,稳步推进了体制过渡的准备工作。马云相继卸任集团旗下5家公司的主要职务,全部移交给张勇等人。马云还推进出售自己持有的阿里股票。2018年6月马云的持股比例从7%降低至6.4%,最近更降至6.2%。

    马云青睐的张勇出生于上海市,大学毕业后进入美国会计师事务所普华永道的上海事务所。之后张勇在中国大型游戏公司担任首席财务官(CFO),马云听说了他的名声后,亲自出面交涉,2007年将他挖到阿里。

    阿里内部相关人士评价称,张勇不愧为会计领域出身,说话总是条理分明,很少看到他感情外露。张勇还被称为工作狂。他将家人留在上海,独自一人到杭州工作,住在距阿里总部约30分钟车程的喜来登酒店,不分早晚地发出工作指示。如果有必要,深夜也会召开会议。在属于巨型企业的阿里巴巴,张勇事必躬亲,几乎直接听取所有部门的汇报,被称为不亲自发出指示就不舒服的人。

    对于这样的张勇,马云起初并未打算让其成为自己的接班人。马云过去常说,CFO类型的人思维保守,当不了CEO。但是,张勇进入阿里后,不断改变贴在自己身上的“CFO类型”标签。

    策划如今成为中国最大规模促销、成为阿里代名词的“双11”并使之走上轨道,正是始于张勇2009年的提议。在淘宝存在假货,阿里面对来自消费者的逆风的2014年前后,张勇推动以高品质商品为卖点的天猫(TMALL)走上增长轨道,恢复了业绩。

    在主力的网购业务仍主要通过电脑下单的2013年,随着智能手机时代到来,张勇第一时间将经营资源投向智能手机APP的开发,让阿里成为网购市场上稳固的王者,这也给马云留下深刻印象。

    张勇于2015年出任CEO这一仅次于马云的职务。为了迅速带领阿里迈向新的增长,张勇推进大型并购,在最近几年里,用于并购的资金换算成日元已超过1万亿日元。大胆的经营手腕也获得马云的充分信赖,张勇成功争取到接班人的位置。

    受到期待的张勇为迎接日趋临近的一把手更替,如今进一步显示出进攻姿态。其中最具代表性的是最近亲自设立的由张勇领导的新机构“经济体发展执行委员会”。今后阿里将由该机构作出经营的重要决策。该机构囊括17位主要部门一把手,所有人都必须向张勇直接汇报业务情况。

    在出身于十八罗汉的6名主要高管中仅有1人进入新机构,5人“落选”。当然,入选成员中也没有马云的名字。卡里斯玛(Charisma,超凡领袖型)经营者离开的体制过渡的准备工作稳步推进。张勇领导的新体制的实力受到考验的日子到来。

  • 韩国6家航空公司7~9月全部亏损

    韩国6家航空公司2019年7~9月的合并财报截至11月15日均已出炉。所有航空公司的最终损益均为亏损。最大的大韩航空的最终损益为亏损2118亿韩元(2018年同期为盈利2678亿韩元)。7月以后的日韩关系恶化导致旅客往来减少,直接打击了各航空公司的业绩。

    大韩航空出现最终亏损(图由该公司提供)

    除了大韩航空、韩亚航空(Asiana Airlines)等大企业外,济州航空、真航空(Jin Air)、德威航空(Tway Air)、釜山航空(Air Busan)等4家廉价航空公司也出现最终亏损。

    大韩航空时隔4年出现亏损。营业收入比上年同期减少3.7%,降至3.283万亿韩元。日韩对立和香港局势的影响导致旅客人数减少,该公司针对10~12月表示,“经营环境仍很严峻”。正在推进出售手续的韩亚航空的最终损益为亏损2325亿韩元(2018年同期为盈利496亿韩元)。

    日本航线占到销售额2~4成多的廉价航空公司的情况更为严峻。济州航空7~9月的最终损益为亏损313亿韩元(2018年同期为盈利312亿韩元)。大韩航空旗下的真航空也亏损181亿日元(2018年同期为盈利187亿日元)。

    除了日韩关系之外,韩国国内经济低迷也对旅行需求的减少产生影响。受韩元贬值的影响,燃料费和飞机租赁费的负担增加,拉低了各航空公司的收益。今后,由于限制放宽带来的新竞争者,加上非上市企业在内,预计韩国的航空公司将由目前的8家增至11家,竞争也将变得更加激烈。

  • Jay-Z, Zhou Qunfei, Richard Branson – and other self-made billionaires who never even graduated from high school

    Entrepreneurs like Richard Branson and rapper Jay-Z have two things in common: both are wildly successful billionaires, and both never graduated from high school.

    But they aren’t the only billionaires who never so much as picked up a high school diploma. While a number of prominent college dropouts later became ultra-wealthy – particularly tech titans like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates – it’s generally rarer for high school dropouts to become among the richest people in the world. But still, it does happen from time to time – as these examples each prove.

    Keep reading to learn more about five of the most prominent billionaires who also happen to be high school dropouts.

    Zhou Qunfei dropped out of high school at 16 to work in a watch lens factory

    Attending accounting classes at night, Zhou Qunfei saved up nearly HK$20,000 (about US$2,500) and eventually opened up her own watch lens company, run by herself and her family members.

    She is now the CEO of Lens Technology, which manufactures glass for brands such as Apple, Samsung and Tesla. In 2015, the company went public and Zhou’s stake in the business was worth US$7.2 billion, The New York Times reported that year.

    “I have encountered many difficulties and setbacks as an entrepreneur,” she said in an interview with CNBC Make It. “But the key to success is to persevere, especially during the most difficult times.”

    The self-made billionaire is currently worth about US$6.6 billion, according to Forbes real-time assessment.

    Amancio Ortega dropped out of school at 14 to begin running errands for local shopkeepers

    Francois Pinault, founder of the luxury group Kering, dropped out of school when he was 11 years old to work in his father’s timber mill

    Jay-Z attended the George Westinghouse Career and Technical Education High School but never graduated

    While he personally managed to find immense success after dropping out of high school, the role-model rapper encourages people to take their education seriously.

    “Education is super important,” Jay-Z said in a press conference for a performance at Carnegie Hall. “I don’t have a high school diploma or a college diploma, but still for me to articulate, I had to have some form of schooling to articulate my thoughts.”

    Richard Branson dropped out of high school when he was only 16 after struggling with dyslexia

  • India’s shock RCEP exit makes domestic economic reforms more urgent

    Sixteen nations met recently at a trade summit in Bangkok, Thailand, hoping to iron out the terms of a regional trade deal covering nearly half the world’s population. Then India, after seven years of negotiations, decided to pull out.The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) included all 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well six other partner countries: China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India.

    As India’s economy continues to slow, regional integration held the promise of a new source of growth. India now faces a stark choice – either strengthen domestic economic reforms or risk being left behind as trade migrates to lower-tariff trade zones throughout Asia.Real reforms will not be easy, despite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning national elections in May. The economy has not been the focus since Modi’s re-election. Instead, nationalistic and sectarian politics have defined the first six months of Modi’s new term and a strong coalition government has still not been formed.While political issues remain unresolved, India’s economy continues to slow. Growth fell to 7 per cent last year from a decade high of 8.5 per cent in 2010. While that is still among the fastest in the world, trend lines are not promising and this year does not look much better. Debt rating agency Moody’s has just downgraded its outlook on India to “negative” while maintaining a Baa2 bond rating. That is just two places above speculative, non-investment grade. Industrial production has fallen for two months running, to levels last seen in 2011.

  • Stock prices of companies with more women executives outperformed peers for almost a decade, Credit Suisse says

    • Such firms have outperformed peers by 3.6 per cent in annual growth rate of share prices since 2010
    • Women currently account for 17 per cent of management teams on average globally, up from 14 per cent in 2016

    Companies with more women executives tend to perform better in the stock market, according to a Credit Suisse study of more than 3,000 firms listed across the world.

    Companies with women in at least 20 per cent of their executive management positions have outperformed those without by 3.6 per cent in the annual growth rate of share prices since 2010, according to “Gender 3000: The changing face of companies”, a report released by the Swiss investment bank recently.

    Even though Credit Suisse refrained from establishing cause and effect, the study provided striking statistical evidence of the link between gender diversity in decision-making roles and companies’ share price performance.

    “When we look at the nature of business models of companies, what we found is their returns on capital are more stable, with less volatility, among the more diverse companies. That rationalises what you are looking at,” said Richard Kersley, managing director and head of global thematic research at the bank.

    “You still could come back to the idea of whether it is that good-quality companies tend to be diverse by definition, rather than diverse companies make them good quality. But the numbers are numbers,” he said.

    The study reiterated research carried out by universities and financial institutions around the world. For instance, this year, researchers at Stanford University found – through the analysis of about 60 diversity announcements by listed companies in the technology and finance sectors – investors pushed share prices higher when companies revealed more gender diversity.

    Research conducted by graduate business school INSEAD, however, found one additional woman on a board of directors resulted in a 2.3 per cent decrease in a company’s market value on average. For the report released last month, the researchers analysed 14 years of data on listed companies in the United States.

    The Credit Suisse study showed that companies with higher representation of women in their management teams tend to have healthier financial characteristics, including stronger cash-flow returns, higher margins and better credit ratings.

  • The bulls are back, thanks to better-than-expected market news. But there’s little support for their optimism

    • Expectations have so much influence over investors that a slower contraction than anticipated has boosted markets
    • They’ve gotten ahead of themselves: there’s little about global conditions to indicate the economy has hit bottom

    In financial markets, expectations are crucial. Bad economic news can be treated as good news if the data comes in better than expected.

    Last week, the publication of an index of global manufacturing activity, produced jointly by JPMorgan and IHS Markit, showed that output in October contracted for the sixth straight month as the trade war continued to take its toll on the world economy.

    However, investors seized on the slower pace of contraction, with the index rising for the third consecutive month, suggesting that the manufacturing downturn may have bottomed out during the summer.Even if the uptick proves to be a false dawn, most investors are now convinced that their fears of a global recession earlier this year were overdone.

    The facts speak for themselves. Since October 8, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond has surged 37 basis points to 1.89 per cent, its highest level since early August. More tellingly, the global stock of negative-yielding government and corporate debt, which had ballooned to a record high of US$17 trillion in August, has plunged to US$12.5 trillion. Even Japan’s 10-year bond yield is threatening to turn positive.

    Both of these factors have been feeding off each other over the past several weeks, so much so that the “fear of missing out” – known in markets by its acronym “FOMO” – on a powerful rally has taken over as the main driver of sentiment. Never mind that the economic data, particularly in Europe, remains bleak, or that the prospect of a meaningful and durable easing of trade tensions is remote, investors’ belief that the outlook for the global economy has improved has created its own reality.

    As JPMorgan rightly observed in a note published earlier this month, asset prices reflect market expectations of a turning point in growth. The issue is “whether markets [are] front-load[ing] the next business cycle to an extreme degree”.

    Whether the bulls are jumping the gun will only become clear in the coming months, when the headwinds from the trade war will have either abated or intensified, and when the economic data will either validate or negate the recent improvement in sentiment.

  • 孙正义要在日本打造一个“阿里巴巴”

    运营日本搜索服务“YAHOO”的Z HOLDINGS(HD)和LINE在进行合并业务的最终协调,将成立旗下纳入2家企业业务的新企业,设为软银的合并子公司。软银集团会长兼社长孙正义的“全面获取日本互联网市场”的豪赌,正在打造1亿人利用的平台提供商。

    “将会反思,但不会萎缩”,孙正义在11月6日的财报发布会上如此表示,显示出不变的扩张姿态。软银集团由于旗下的10万亿日元基金“愿景基金”的出资对象——美国共享办公室巨头“WeWork”的运营公司经营不善等原因,2019年7~9月出现了创出历史新高的7千亿日元合并最终亏损。在集中投资有潜力的海外人工智能(AI)企业的战略面临逆风的背景下,浮出水面的是通过Z HOLDINGS与LINE合并,全面赢得日本国内市场的一手。

    据称孙正义一直对于在日本国内聊天应用领域拥有稳固客户基础的LINE很感兴趣。相关人士表示,“可能一直在寻找展开资本合作的可能性”。据称此次的合并谈判也是由Z HOLDINGS方面向LINE母公司韩国NAVER主动提出。

    “孙先生试图以YAHOO(Z HOLDINGS)为核心,在日本国内打造一个‘阿里巴巴’”,软银集团的一名高管如此表示。中国的阿里巴巴集团是软银集团的最大投资对象,在孙正义多年的投资之中,被认为是最大的成功案例。阿里巴巴以用户人数在全世界达到约12亿的结算服务作为入口,将用户引导到电子商务(EC)等与中国民众生活密切相关的所有服务上。在中国成为压倒性的平台提供商。

    阿里巴巴的做法无疑触动了孙正义。为了在日本的互联网市场打造平台,今年6月将日本YAHOO(Z HOLDINGS)组入日本国内手机运营商的软银。在日本国内的手机市场接近饱和的背景下,启动了将2家企业的合作定为国内增长火车头的战略。通过集团全体出动的投资培育了2018年10月推出的结算服务“PayPay”。

    Z HOLDINGS于9月决定收购运营服装电商网站“ZOZOTOWN(走走城)”的ZOZO。随着此次与LINE的合并,在日本国内的互联网市场的存在感将迅速提高。将拥有在日本电商业务上领先的亚马逊日本和乐天表现薄弱的聊天应用,还能加强属于增长领域的结算服务。

    LINE的聊天应用的用户约为8000万人,日本YAHOO的服务约为5000万人。如果合并成功实现,将诞生同时涉足金融和零售的1亿人规模利用的服务平台。

    在结算服务领域,LINE的“LINE Pay”的注册人数约为3700万人,PayPay为1900万人。合计超过NTT docomo的“d支付”的5倍,在这个领域掌握压倒性优势。

    在银行和证券领域的乘积效应也很巨大。Z HOLDINGS拥有日本网络银行,10月宣布与SBI Holdings就金融业务展开一揽子合作。LINE携手野村证券,成立了“LINE证券”,计划与瑞穗金融集团于2020年度开设新银行。在新闻搜索服务和电商网站等领域也有望展开合作。

    2家企业还具有用户层的互补关系。在电商网站等领域,Z HOLDINGS服务的用户多为40多岁,另一方面,LINE的应用程序则是大量10~20多岁年轻人利用。对Z HOLDINGS来说,争取到LINE拥有的年轻用户,对于争取用户长久利用其服务来说具有吸引力。

    但也存在课题。即使借助2家企业的力量在日本国内市场打造平台,但在研发费用等方面,中美的大型IT(信息技术)企业仍有压倒性规模。为了展开对抗,通过软银集团推进的AI投资获得的技术和经验的投入是不可或缺的。

    领导Z HOLDINGS和LINE这2家公司的新企业将成为软银的合并子公司,但NAVER也是向新企业出资50%的大股东。在推进业务运营方面,今后预计需要协调。此前在集团内部就能确定的决策有可能发生混乱。

    虽然在日本国内有很多消费者利用,但另一方面,也存在反对数据垄断的声音集中出现的风险。

    在美国,对于美国谷歌和亚马逊等“GAFA”收集消费者信息的反对正在加强。认为GAFA的强大有可能阻碍竞争,“分拆言论”也浮出水面。美国司法部、50个州和地区的司法长官启动了对IT大型企业的调查。

    在日本, “公正取引委员会”(公平交易委员会)10月底发布了对巨大IT企业的调查报告。列举了巨大IT企业在法律上引发问题的行为,明确了严加管理的态度。

  • 密码保护:美联储主席鲍威尔称特朗普寻求的负利率并不适合美国经济

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  • GEARED FOR WAR Jeremy Corbyn plans war on motorists with huge fuel duty hikes to force them to slash 60% of journeys

    An internal Labour party paper reveals punishing new measures to slash road use.

    They include huge hikes in fuel duty and company car tax, mandatory road pricing and charges to park your vehicle at work.

    Reducing motorway speed limits so cars go slower and pollute less is also proposed and all planned road improvements will also be binned.

    At the annual party conference in September Labour defied expert warnings and backed Britain to go carbon neutral by 2030.

    The Tories seized on the document to insist the plans will hurt already struggling road commuters the hardest. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps warned: “Corbyn is coming for your car.”

    The latest revelation comes after another difficult day for Labour.

    Hard left leader Jezza joked with jostling photographers in Blackpool that “under Socialism you will co-operate”;
    Mr Corbyn also hinted at a manifesto U-turn over controversial plans to abolish private schools;
    As he prepared to campaign in Scotland today, Mr Corbyn was branded “toxic” by his own side;
    Labour bosses ruled left-winger Ian Byrne should not be sacked as a parliament candidate despite his sexist and homophobic tirades;
    Controversial activist Claudia Webbe was selected for a safe Labour seat despite defending ex-London mayor Ken Livingstone over the anti-Semitism scandal;
    Shadow education secretary Angela Rayner insisted she “will cry on December 13th if we don’t get a Labour government” because so much is at stake over the NHS.
    Even if Labour pushes through just one of the anti-car measures by allowing regular increases in fuel duty — frozen for the previous decade — the cost of petrol and diesel will go up by 13p plus inflation during their five years in power.

    Mr Shapps added: “It is now clear that Labour have secret plans to clobber hardworking people with a barrage of tax hikes on their family car, that would leave families with less money in their pockets.

    “Labour’s extreme economic policies would be a disaster for drivers. Tackling climate change is vital but independent experts and even Labour’s own unions say their promises don’t stack up.”

    The report, by energy industry experts, was commissioned by Labour, published on the party website and endorsed by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey.

    ‘DISASTER FOR DRIVERS’
    Previous Tory PM Theresa May this year signed the UK up to going carbon neutral by 2050.

    Labour insisted that the “external report” had not been endorsed “wholesale” by the party. A spokesman said: “Labour will usher in an electric car revolution.

    “We will provide interest-free loans for 2.5million to upgrade their vehicles, introduce a scrappage scheme for old cars, protect the 186,000 workers in the automotive sector, kick-start a mammoth rollout of the UK’s electric vehicle charging network and set up community car sharing clubs.

    “All the Tories have to offer is green number plates.” Mr Corbyn’s two-day Scotland tour takes in seven constituencies under pressure from the SNP.

  • Halfords’ £12m accounting hit is another blow for KPMG partners

    KPMG faces fresh embarrassment after its former client Halfords was forced to take a £12m hit following an accounting change.

    It is another blow to the reputation of the Big Four auditor, which together with partners on its audit team has been hit with £24m of fines in the past 18 months by the industry watchdog.

    Halfords revealed last week that it had taken an £11.7m hit to its retained earnings and net assets after a “misapplication” of costs in its previous accounts, which were audited by KPMG.

    Some costs relating to Halfords’ distribution centres were accounted for in a manner that was not in line with the company’s policy, it said.

    The changes did not affect the company’s profit and loss account or cash flow statement.

    KPMG audited Halfords for a decade but was replaced by BDO earlier this year following a re-tendering of the role.

    KPMG’s lead partner on the audit was Peter Meehan, who was also the auditor of government outsourcer Carillion before it went bust in January 2018.

    The change to the accounts is understood to relate to a policy that was in place before he became the lead partner on the Halfords account.

    Mr Meehan has been suspended by the firm after regulators at the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) opened an investigation into its audit work for Carillion.

    A source close to Halfords sought to play down the issue, which was first reported by the Financial Times, saying it is normal for new auditors reach different judgments on grey areas within accounting policies.

    The firm has come under pressure from the crisis on the high street as customers shun bricks-and-mortar stores to shop online instead, issuing a string of profit warnings in the past 12 months.

    Shares in the seller of bikes and car wipers have fallen more than a third this year. Last Thursday it revealed a drop in profits to £27.5m for the six months to September, down 2.5pc on a year earlier. Sales at stores open for more than a year fell 2.9pc to £283m.

    KPMG and Halfords declined to comment. Mr Meehan did not respond to a request for comment.

    The auditor has been hit with a string of fines in the past 18 months, including for its work on the accounts of BNY Mellon, Co-op Bank and Ted Baker. Six of its senior staff have also been reprimanded and fined for their work on several substandard audits.

    While the firm and its partners have together been fined a total of £24m, some of the penalties were reduced because the firm admitted its failings and co-operated with the FRC investigations.

    These fines are dwarfed by KPMG’s UK revenues, which stood at £2.2bn in the year to September 2018, and average partner pay which was £601,000.

    KPMG is also the subject of several continuing investigations. The FRC’s annual enforcement review in July listed outstanding investigations into its work for Carillion, Rolls Royce and drinks retailer Conviviality, which collapsed after a surprise £30m tax bill.

    The surge in enforcement actions has led major audit firms to jack up the price of contracts due to increased risks associated with vetting the books of the UK’s biggest companies.

  • Tim Martin attacks ‘up the spout’ corporate governance rules

    Wetherspoon boss Tim Martin has slammed the “short-termism” of the UK’s corporate governance rules, which he claimed have led to the “failure or chronic underperformance” of many companies.

    The pub chief’s latest outburst comes after Wetherspoons’ largest institutional shareholder, Columbia Threadneedle, failed to support the re-election of two directors at last year’s annual meeting.

    Mr Martin said three-quarters of the pub operator’s non-executive directors felt compelled to offer their resignations as a result, which destabilised the company.

    “There can be little doubt that the current system has directly led to the failure or chronic underperformance of many businesses, including banks, supermarkets, and pubs,” he said in a trading update for the 13 weeks to Oct 27.

    Mr Martin also linked compliance with corporate governance guidelines with the collapse of companies including Carillion and Thomas Cook.

    He added: “My view is the UK corporate governance system is up the spout – and is itself a threat to listed companies – and therefore to the UK economy.”

    Wetherspoons said like-for-like sales rose by 5.3pc in its first quarter, while trading for the full year would be in line with expectations.

    Shares in the pub chain have risen by more than a quarter so far this year, but fell 1.6pc to £15 in early trading.

  • Gold Digger, episode 1 review: an older-woman, younger-man romantic thriller that seriously lacked

    “Daughter, wife, mother. There are my roles. I chose them, for better, for worse. And then you came along and exploded all of that.” So went Julia Ormond’s scene-setting monologue on Gold Digger (BBC One) – a psychosexual thriller about an age-gap romance with possible ulterior motives.

    The BBC are hoping this six-parter, written by Marnie Dickens, will keep audiences glued to their sofas on autumnal nights and get tongues wagging around watercoolers. With its saucy intrigue and chic interiors, it was bidding to be an upmarket melodramain the mould of Apple Tree Yard or Doctor Foster.

    We began with Julia Day (Ormond) waking up alone in an enviable Devon pile on her 60th birthday – the first since her husband of 35 years, Ted (Alex Jennings), left her for her best friend. She headed to London to celebrate with her three grown-up children but one-by-one, they blew her out. Grrr, those pesky kids.

    Left at a loose end, Julia tossed her impressive curls, donned her swishiest green coat and wandered into the British Museum – where a chance encounter with flirty thirtysomething Benjamin (Ben Barnes) proved to be the beginning of a whirlwind affair.

    All that was left to do was introduce him to her children and that’s where things became fraught, not least because the entitled brats initially mistook him for a waiter. They immediately presumed that suave young stud Benjamin was only after one thing – her money (“Mum has the house, the villa, the investments”) – so started plotting how to remove him.

    There were hints of trauma in the Day family’s past, possibly involving violent abuse, so expect dark secrets to bubble to the surface. Besides, Alex Jennings is too good an actor to be wasted in a cameo role as a midlife crisis cad. Anyone who saw him play a serial killer in last year’s ITV drama Unforgotten knows how chilling he can be.

    Invariably the norm on-screen is older men with younger women, so redressing the balance was welcome. It was refreshing to see an older woman taking risks, being recognised as a sexual being and feeling “seen” for the first time in decades.

    Such a set-up might have been smartly compelling and precision-tooled to get viewers talking at home but sadly, the story’s execution was overwrought and soapy. Dialogue was stagey and stilted. Ormond aside, the cast didn’t convince. The tidy-bearded toy boy was smug rather than charming, while her irritatingly self-absorbed children needed a stern talking-to.

    Only over-protective eldest son Patrick (Sebastian Armesto), a stressed City lawyer with his own dysfunctional marriage but determined to atone for the sins of his father, was remotely three-dimensional. He was left to do all the heavy lifting on behalf of his two sketchily drawn siblings, spoilt slacker Leo (Archie Renaux) and heartbroken lesbian Della (Jemima Rooper). That is, when Patrick wasn’t pouting sulkily, randomly punching walls or getting into moody staring contests with Benjamin.

  • Walgreens heading for biggest private equity buyout ever, says report

    Walgreens Boots Alliance, which owns Walgreens and Duane Reade in the US, Boots in the UK and a number of pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution companies, operates in 25 countries and has over 415,000 employees.
    Walgreens Boots Alliance, which owns Walgreens and Duane Reade in the US, Boots in the UK, operates in 25 countries and has over 415,000 employees. Photograph: John Minchillo/AP
    The global drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance has reportedly received a buyout offer from the private equity group KKR – if successful, the deal would be the biggest private equity transaction on record.

    Shares in Walgreens Boots Alliance rose 6% on Monday after Bloomberg reported news of the deal. Its shares had fallen nearly 20% between January and the end of October, before news of a potential buyout emerged.

    Walgreens Boots Alliance, which owns Walgreens and Duane Reade in the US, Boots in the UK and a number of pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution companies, operates in 25 countries and has more than 415,000 employees.

    It has struggled in recent years and is currently closing stores and cutting jobs in an attempt to save $1.8bn a year in costs by 2022. The company is facing stiff competition from online sales as consumers increasingly buy household staples online, a trend that is rapidly expanding to pharmaceuticals too. Slowing revenue from prescription drugs have also hurt the company.

    Last year Amazon bought the online pharmacy PillPack in a deal widely seen as an indication of Amazon’s intent to push further into the healthcare industry.

    Chairman Stefano Pessina, who owns about 16% of the company, built Walgreens Boots Alliance through a series of takeovers. KKR helped Pessina buy Boots Alliance in 2014 in what was Britain’s largest ever management buyout.

    Despite the company’s size it has struggled. The company is currently reviewing its store portfolio and in May Boots said it could close up to 200 stores over the next two years, the latest in a series of high street names to announce drastic closures. In a call with analysts earlier this year the company also blamed Brexit for “challenging” conditions.

    In the US Walgreens’ largest rival, CVS Health, has repositioned itself as a healthcare giant, merging with the insurer Aetna. Walgreens, in contrast, attempted to expand its portfolio with an unsuccessful takeover of rival Rite Aid and has since announced a deal to expand with other retailers, including the grocery chain Kroger.

    With a market value of $56bn and $16.8bn in debt, the price to take the company private would top the largest leveraged buyout in history: the 2007 sale of utility TXU to KKR and private equity investment firm TPG, which was worth about $45bn, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    Some finance chiefs are skeptical about a deal. “It might be possible. It’s a huge stretch doing things over $50bn,” Stephen Schwarzman, head of Blackstone, one of the world’s biggest buyout firms, told a Reuters Newsmaker conference last week.