分类： 银行考试

Mid-year Market Outlook 2019: Central Banks Stay Easy and in Sync

Key themes for investors in the second half of 2019, as global central bank easing becomes more synchronized.

July 5, 2019

Bond and equity markets have had a good first half of the year, boosted by dovish monetary policy from the world’s central banks, with the S&P 500 hitting another fresh record high. Following the June 2019 G-20 summit, where a U.S.-China trade truce was agreed for the time being, asset prices should be supported for the remainder of the year. Low single-digit returns are expected across most asset classes, as the global economy slips slowly into sub-trend growth and valuations are less attractive. In this report, the J.P. Morgan Research team explores how investors should be positioned for the second half of 2019 as central bank easing becomes more synchronized.

Global Growth

The dovish shift in global monetary policy continues to deepen, with macroeconomic policy support coming from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pivot and China’s fiscal easing. The Trump administration’s willingness to actively use trade barriers as a tool of broader foreign policy remains a key risk to monitor, despite the agreement to a second truce between the U.S. and China on trade negotiations. The business sector response to this assault, rather than the direct impact of higher tariffs, poses the greatest threat to global growth. ​

“We have consequently downgraded global growth forecasts further. At the center of this storm, we have lowered GDP growth for the U.S. and China by an annualized 0.5 percentage points for the remaining quarters of 2019 and recently reduced second quarter U.S. GDP growth to 1.25%,” said J.P. Morgan Chief Economist, Bruce Kasman.

Similar drags on growth are set to follow in other parts of the global economy and the central bank policy reaction is expected to be straightforward. China is committed to maintaining 6% growth and will respond to any slowing with further easing. In the U.S., the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is ready to respond to slowing GDP and job growth, with J.P. Morgan’s Economic Research team now forecasting two rate cuts later this year—one in July and another in September. A large number of central banks will likely follow suit, including the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and 13 emerging market (EM) central banks.

For the U.S., recession risks for the next twelve months have consequently risen— from roughly 25% last fall to around 45% currently.
Bruce Kasman Chief Economist, J.P. Morgan
“These additional policy supports, alongside healthy private sector fundamentals, underlie our view that the latest shocks won’t tip the global economy into recession. However, even a healthy expansion can be thrown off course if buffeted by a large enough shock. For the U.S., recession risks for the next twelve months have consequently risen—from roughly 25% last fall (September 2018) to around 45% currently,” said Kasman.

The annual pace of global GDP growth in 2019 is now forecast at 2.7%, with the U.S. and euro area expected to come in at 2.4% and 1.2% over the same period respectively, according to J.P. Morgan estimates.

Equities

In total, J.P. Morgan now expects six developed market (DM) and 13 EM central banks to ease in the latter half of the year. Policy rates are estimated to decline by a GDP-weighted average of 29 basis points (bps) for DM central banks and 31 bps for EM central banks.

This central bank dovishness, along with low positioning should support global equities through the global slowdown, but trade uncertainty remains the single largest source of downside risk. Existing tariffs are already pressuring profits, but this has been offset partially by the impact of the Tax Act so far. Companies will likely address this tariff impact in the upcoming reporting season with lower growth estimates. J.P. Morgan forecasts 2020 earnings per share (EPS) of $178 compared to a consensus of $186.

We maintain our cautiously positive stance on equities and keep our S&P 500 price- target at 3,000 given our base-case view that trade tensions do not escalate into a stand off.
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, J.P. Morgan
“We believe additional round of tariffs would increase the risk of pushing the U.S. business and profit cycle into an outright contraction. Had the phase three tariffs materialized, we estimated the first-order impact to be an additional hit of around $4 (cumulatively around $9) to S&P 500 EPS over one year,” said J.P. Morgan Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas.

J.P. Morgan Research maintains its positive stance on equities and keeps its trade probability-weighted S&P 500 price-target at 3,000, given the base case view that trading tensions do not escalate into a standoff. However, if trade talks fully collapse and phase three tariffs are implemented without any indication of rollback, the S&P 500 could decline closer to 2,500, triggering both the “Trump Put” and “Fed Put.” In a more positive scenario of a trade deal and tariff rollback, earnings should see positive revisions with the S&P 500 reaching around 3,200. Regionally, J.P. Morgan Research maintains its preference for the U.S. versus Europe, despite a large 15% outperformance over the last year. In Asia, J.P. Morgan Research recently moved overweight Japan equities. ​

“We have been cautious on Japan for a while, but have recently upgraded the country to overweight as the region has lagged and positioning in Japan is very light. While we believe Chinese policy stimulus will be effective, we are neutral emerging versus developed markets going into the second half, given unexciting valuations and continuing trade concerns,” said Head of Global and European Equity Strategy at J.P. Morgan, Mislav Matejka.

Cross-Asset

Four key macro and policy themes are set to influence markets at different speeds for the second half of the year and into 2020:

1. President Trump’s unfinished trade, technology and budget wars
2. Fed rate cuts as part of both standard risk management and once-in-a-generation regime change
3. Broader “Japanization” – an extended period of stagnant growth, subdued inflation and ultra-low interest rates – across regions
4. Late-cycle dynamics swayed more by geopolitics than by a restrictive Fed

“As easing from both China and the Fed can probably offset the impact of current tariffs and prevent a 2019 recession, asset allocation remains cyclical. We are looking at this mainly through a preference for equities versus fixed income at the moment,” said Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, John Normand.

Central bank policy has eroded most carry in bonds – the yield of the bond minus the financing or the cost of owning a bond – which means income-seeking investors have no choice but to own assets with returns that are much more cyclical than they might prefer.

As easing from both China and the Fed can probably offset the impact of current tariffs and prevent a 2019 recession, asset allocation remains cyclical.
John Normand Head of Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy, J.P. Morgan
“We hold equities versus credit rather than bonds to reduce risk to the global business cycle and we hold no net exposure to emerging markets,” added Normand.

Commodities

Traditionally, low growth and inflationary environments tend to be negative for commodities. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), the oil producer group that pumps more than half of the world’s crude along with its allies, has resolutely adhered to its commitment to help balance markets since the end of 2016. J.P. Morgan Research expects this commitment to remain in the current fragile market as suggested by discussions between the Saudi and Russian leaders at the June 2019 G-20 summit.

“As long as demand does not crater, heightened geopolitical risks and OPEC+ cuts should still be enough for oil to provide positive returns for the latter part of this year,” said J.P. Morgan Head of Oil Market Research and Strategy, Abhishek Deshpande. The July OPEC summit, along with Iran tensions, should keep Brent in the $60 per barrel range. U.S. natural gas, on the other hand, looks more vulnerable, as it gradually shifts from supply-driven to supply-demand dynamics, given the growing links to economies abroad.

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates the S&P GSCI ER index and the BCOM ER index to return 9% and 6% respectively.
Bullish second half forecasts for oil, agriculture and precious metals should push broader commodities indices around
over the balance of the year.
6-9% higher
In metals, “safe haven” precious metals have historically held up best in low growth environments, while demand-driven base metals face the highest risks to the downside.

Current Fed policy should support the gold price above $1,400 per ounce. At current spot levels, base metal prices are still too rich versus global growth — a valuation gap that should further close if growth does not recover, according to J.P. Morgan estimates. Similar to oil, supply-sensitive agriculture products still have upside potential for the second half. All in all, bullish second half forecasts for oil, agriculture and precious metals should push broader commodities indices around 6-9% higher over the balance of the year.

Rates

U.S. rates markets are pricing in a more dovish path for the Fed than J.P. Morgan current forecasts, which could lead to the market continuing to price an aggressive path in the second half of the year. The FOMC has less room to ease than in past cycles and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated a willingness to act more aggressively because of this binding constraint. The Committee is also very focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored.

“We see further room for yields to decline over the balance of the year and we forecast a decline in 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields to 1.40% and 1.75%, respectively, by year-end,” said J.P. Morgan Head of USD Government Bond Strategy, Jay Barry.

The second half of 2019 will also bring synchronized easing across DM central banks, with the ECB and the BoJ following the expected Fed rate cuts.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Bank of England and Scandinavian central banks are on hold. The universe of negative-yielding bonds has increased to 27% of the Global Aggregate Bond Index (GABI), up nearly 10 percentage points from October 2018. Geopolitical risks and Brexit will remain in the spotlight, with a late focus on Italy because of expected general elections and a demanding 2020 budget. In the Euro area a 10 bps cut in the deposit rate is expected in September without tiering, but Euro area rates will be mostly driven by the market pricing an increasing probability of further easing.

We see further room for yields to decline over the balance of the year and we forecast
respectively, by year-end.
a decline in 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields to 1.40% and 1.75%,
Jay Barry Head of USD Government Bond Strategy, J.P. Morgan

Currencies

In foreign exchange markets, recent global macro developments are constructive for safe reserve currencies and negative for lower yielding high-beta currencies. But overall it is a muddied picture for the broad dollar index. Historically, the USD does well on a broad trade-weighted basis whenever global growth is weak or weakening, irrespective of whether the U.S. economy itself is decelerating, the Fed cuts rates or indeed there is even recession.

The dollar is not expected to appreciate against all currencies as the Fed lowers rates, with other safe-haven currencies likely to outperform in an anti-cyclical easing phase.

“This club of alternative safe-havens [that could outperform the USD] is exclusive and membership is probably confined to the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc,” said J.P. Morgan Head of Global FX Strategy, Paul Meggyesi.

The Swiss franc is usually the single best performer in a Fed easing cycle whereas the yen’s track record is much patchier. Both currencies together with the dollar are historically very effective hedges to either a U.S. recession or a sharp global downturn.

The Swiss franc is usually the single best performer in a Fed easing cycle whereas the yen’s track record is much patchier.
Paul Meggyesi Head of Global FX Strategy, J.P. Morgan
Emerging Markets
Since the breakdown of U.S.-China trade talks in early May resulting in tariff increases, the macro outlook has been in flux with growth forecasts lowered. J.P. Morgan Research forecasts broadly stable emerging market (EM) GDP growth of 4.5% in the second half of the year, but this view is overshadowed by heightened uncertainty and significant downside risks.

Given the risks to the growth outlook along with dovish revisions to developed market (DM) policy rates, policy easing across EM is now expected.

“The tension between weaker growth and a reactive Fed keeps us defensive, but not overly bearish EM fixed income in in the second half of the year,” said J.P. Morgan Head of Currencies, Commodities and Emerging Markets, Luis Oganes.

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
EM growth of
is forecast for the second half of 2019
4.5%
“We do not assume a repeat of EM equities sell-off seen earlier this year — the support arsenal is there if things get worse. Additional policy supports like further China easing and Fed rate cuts could break negative feedback loops,” added J.P. Morgan Chief Emerging Markets Equity Strategist, Pedro Martins Junior.

Payments Fraud Activity Surged in 2018

According to the Association for Financial Professionals’ 15th annual Payments Fraud and Control Survey, payments fraud is becoming increasingly pervasive. Fraudsters are highly focused on infiltrating payments technology. While technology advancements can optimize and simplify processes, they can also provide a means for perpetrators to attack payment methods, commit financial crimes and inflict extensive damage. Learn how businesses are protecting themselves.
APR 19, 2019

Payments Fraud Sets Record High for Third Year Straight
The last four years of the survey have recorded a dramatic increase in payments fraud activity. Last year saw the highest rate on record, with 82 percent of financial professionals reporting that their companies were targets.

Larger Organizations at Higher Risk of Attacks

Experienced Payments Fraud Attacks in 2018

69%
Annual Revenue Less Than $1 Billion

87%
Annual Revenue At Least $1 Billion

Check Fraud Drops Slightly, but ACH Fraud Increases
Though checks and wire transfers continued to be the largest targets for fraud, the percentage of these scams decreased. On the other hand, fraudulent ACH debits and credits increased—an indication that fraudsters are developing more sophisticated attacks, as ACH transactions are often more difficult to compromise.

Email Scams Grow More Sophisticated
Business email compromise (BEC) targets businesses and individuals responsible for initiating payments. Eighty percent of organizations were exposed to BEC scams in 2018—the highest number on record.

BEC tactics continue to evolve, but respondents reported the following common attacks by fraudsters:

81% Using spoofed email addresses to pose as senior executives directing a transfer of funds

44% Impersonating vendors in emails, directing payments based on authentic invoices

33% Pretending to be other third parties in emails, requesting changes in bank account, payments instructions, etc.

Other ways financial professionals are protecting their companies include:

88%
use Positive Pay to verify the authenticity of checks

72%
segregate accounts

68%
perform daily reconciliation of check activity

65%
perform daily reconciliation of ACH debits

Last month’s slim job growth seemed to bolster the theory that the economy is slowing down—but with structural changes to the workforce taking place over the last several years, it’s natural for job growth to start to slow even as the economy continues to expand.

BY: JIM GLASSMAN, HEAD ECONOMIST, COMMERCIAL BANKINGJUN 12, 2019

Job creation fell sharply in May. The economy added just 75,000 jobs for the month, far short of the 200,000 monthly job gains that have come to seem typical over the past decade. While a single month’s report could always be a statistical anomaly, the cyclical forces that have driven above-trend demand for labor over the past decade are fading.

As the labor market draws tighter, structural demographic forces are likely to act as a brake on job growth. The economy’s sustainable rate of job creation may be significantly slower than what we have grown accustomed to, but a hiring slowdown doesn’t necessarily signal a loss of economic momentum.

Structural Forces Replace Cyclical Ones

The workforce’s growth rate has slowed dramatically since the 2008 recession. The outsized baby-boom generation has reached retirement age, and the growth of the working population has slowed. In the 1990s and early 2000s, nearly 200,000 potential new workers were entering the job market every month; today, that number is only about 65,000.

Until recently, this demographic shift has been masked by cyclical forces. The recession created a tremendous amount of slack in the labor market, allowing the economy to defy demographics and maintain an above-trend pace of job creation for almost a full decade. Hidden pockets of unemployment and underemployment have been slow to evaporate, but almost all of the recession’s discouraged workforce dropouts have now returned to the job market and the number of involuntary part-time workers has dropped to a level consistent with past periods of full employment.

With headline unemployment nearing a 50-year low and 7.5 million job openings currently going unfilled, it’s possible that the labor market has finally drawn tight. As the last of the recession’s slack disappears, job growth will likely be limited by demographic forces. The rate of job creation should move toward a sustainable average of 50,000 to 75,000 new jobs monthly.

Alternate Futures

There’s no certainty that May’s jobs report marks the beginning of an inevitable hiring slowdown. Monthly job creation reports are inherently volatile; over the past decade, monthly hiring has fallen below 75,000 on seven occasions. On those occasions, weak hiring was immediately followed by a strong rebound, with subsequent months bringing a return to six-digit job growth. The same pattern could repeat this summer.

It’s difficult to measure the amount of slack remaining in the labor market. For example, a small rise in the labor force participation rate could expand the potential workforce and enable hiring to resume its previous rate for some time. Immigration reform could also enlarge the workforce; the addition of foreign-born workers already in the prime of their careers would lift the economy’s sustainable rate of job creation. However, if nothing changes, employment growth will likely moderate at the top of the business cycle.

The Implications of Slow Hiring

When job creation does eventually slow to a sustainable pace, it won’t necessarily be a signal of economic distress. Paradoxically, it could actually benefit workers—a tight job market should lift wages as the demand for labor outpaces the available supply. If the hiring slowdown isn’t accompanied by a spike in layoffs, it will likely be a sign that the economy is leveling off to a sustainable growth rate through the top of the business cycle.

However, without a surge in worker productivity, a slowly expanding workforce likely will constrain GDP growth. Aggregate production is limited by the supply of labor, and as the labor market tightens, expanding businesses will begin to face staffing challenges. Throughout the recovery, consumer demand has guided most decisions about growth—if the customers were there, businesses had few reasons not to add shifts and open new locations. But a lack of available workers could act as a brake on growth.

This adjustment to demographic reality shouldn’t damage the economy—full employment could bring about a slower, more sustainable growth rate, but that doesn’t mean businesses are in distress. When the economy is operating at its full potential, slower aggregate growth should be accompanied by prosperity spread throughout the workforce.

摩根大通悦读计划 – 第20届摩根大通悦读计划：揭开新的一章

2019：高瞻远足，开创先河

抗撃世界贫困问题的新曙光。科技与人类的完美结合。带领您到世界的不同角落，与您探索一些鲜为人知的精彩领域。摩根大通悦读计划2019收录的作品，引领我们反思世界当前面对的各种变化与挑战，歌颂奋力为世界带来积极改变的杰出人物。当中不少作品是由女性作家亲述或共同编撰的励志故事，娓娓道出她们克服艰难险阻的不平凡经历。衷心希望这些为摩根大通客户顾问带来了深刻体会和无尽欢乐的作品，也能够给您带来启发和乐趣。

张倩仪《当今丝路人文风景》
随着新丝路、一带一路、印太战略的提倡，沉寂多时的丝绸之路再次踏上历史舞台。爱读历史、经常游历世界各地的资深出版人张倩仪，深入印度、中亚各国、伊朗、土耳其以至非洲等地，在本书中尝试打破西方社会预设的刻板框架，从源头开始，追溯海陆丝路涉及的国族、历史、信仰、风俗、文化和美艺。作者把所识结合亲身见闻、国际时局，提炼出独特而贴地的视角，梳理丝路古国在世界的角色和影响，进而探讨它们在世界新局下的人文面貌和不同出路，以至这片土地跟中国千丝万缕的关系。
作者：虽然各方新元素并起，但丝路古国的纷扰都有个主轴，丝路古国有同一个目标──复兴。海陆两条丝路涉及的国族、历史、信仰、风俗、文化美艺，纷繁复杂，喜欢的人会觉得引人入胜，只想做生意的，可能茫无头绪。

Dylan Thuras、Rosemary Mosco《Atlas Obscura： 为世界上最具冒险精神的孩子准备的探险指南》
《Atlas Obscura》这本冒险指南，将会带领年轻探险家去到地球上遍布七大洲合共47个国家一些另人叹为观止的神秘地方，展开一场通往奇妙世界的探险旅程。打开这本书，可以探索闪闪发光的洞穴、参观世上最大的树屋、看看拥有多达900种口味的冰淇淋店……这些奇观妙境能够令各年龄段的读者流连忘返，如痴如醉。这本老少皆宜的环球探险指南将基础知识、历史、地理和文化完美融合，同时充满了趣味和惊喜。祝您一路平安，旅途愉快！
作者：世界充满了奇妙的事物和令人好奇的相互联系……相距遥远的国度有着超乎人们想象的共同点。当你远赴地球的另一端饱览壮丽美景的同时，亦能感受到一种故乡的亲切感。

Sarah Rose《为武装抵抗、瓦解纳粹和二战胜利做出重要贡献的诺曼底女间谍们》
在扭转二战局势的诺曼底登陆战役发生之前，盟军面对的是一个看似锐不可挡的德国。在当时的情况下，特别行动执行处需要采取一项史无前例的行动—招募39名女间谍从事瓦解、破坏敌军和情报刺探工作，为盟军诺曼底登陆战役的胜利铺路。在诺曼底登陆75周年纪念日即将到来之际，Sarah Rose对这些默默无闻的二战女英雄可歌可泣的事迹开展了严谨的研究和细致的记述。这些扣人心弦的记述堪比间谍小说的剧情和动作场面，而这一切却都是活生生的历史事迹。
作者：第二次世界大战成功激发了英国老百姓前所未有的勇气和毅力。当敌人兵临城下、大军压境时，他们展现出背水一战、保家卫国的决心和勇气。这些普通公民的非凡勇气和顽强精神值得永远铭记。

Gabriela Cámara《我的墨西哥城厨房： 菜谱与信念》
著名的餐厅老板和主厨Gabriela Cámara利用自己的创新风格、新鲜食材彻底改变了墨西哥城的餐饮文化。她的两家人气餐厅—位于墨西哥城的Contramar和位于旧金山的Cala—都成为了许多人趋之若鹜的美食目的地，充分展现出经营者的创意和巧思。在本书中，Cámara讲述了自己的创业故事并分享了她的一些私房菜秘籍，为全球美食家呈现了墨西哥经典佳肴（安其拉达和塔可饼）与创意料理（美味的玉米布丁和吞拿鱼酥）的完美融合。
作者：与家人一起下厨烹饪并共享美食是我目前最大的爱好。正因如此，精心烹制的家常小菜往往比酒店大餐更加美味。我们不仅能够清楚掌握食材的来源，而且还能亲自挑选食材，为家人精心炮制一顿爱心满满的佳肴。

Clayton Christensen、Efosa Ojomo和 Karen Dillon《繁荣悖论: 创新如何帮助国家脱贫》
在本书中，Clayton Christensen、Efosa Ojomo和Karen Dillon共同探讨了贫困这一全球最顽固、最棘手的问题。尽管发达国家给予了无私的帮助并投入了巨大的资源，但许多受援国家事实上却变得更加贫困。Christensen、Ojomo和Dillon深入分析了导致这一困境的诸多因素，并在总结全球创新成功经验和模式的基础上提出了一个可持续发展的路径选择。
作者：山穷水尽疑无路，柳暗花明又一村。无论是积极推动改变的政府、政府资助组织及其他发展机构还是在黑暗中摸索的创新者和企业家，都应学会从绝望中看到机会，永不轻言放弃。

Sarah Baxter 和 Amy Grimes《文学场所 （灵感旅游指南）》
阅读常常带领我们进入全新、未知的世界—这本图文并茂、令人印象难忘的旅游指南就是一个完美的例证。在本书中，旅游记者Sarah Baxter通过一些现代历史上最著名、最具情感冲击力的著作让读者体验了一次丰富多彩的环球之旅。从Naguib Mahfouz的《宫间街》中如同迷宫般的市场和中世纪开罗的清真寺到Don Quixote的《拉曼查》中阳光普照的平原，从维克多．雨果的《巴黎》中纵横交错的街道到J.D. Salinger的《麦田里的守望者》中令人感伤的纽约市景点，Baxter通过独特、丰富的内容设计为读者提供了一本穿越时空、充满人文体验的旅游指南。
作者：作家笔下的场所有时是不受规则和科学限制的虚幻世界，有时却是我们能够在地图上找到的真实地点。文学作品有时能让这些真实场所比任何照片里的影像更加栩栩如生。作者通过传神的表达让这些场所跃然纸上，通过各种视觉、听觉、味觉上的细节来激发读者的无穷想象力。

梅琳达．盖茨《提升的时刻： 赋权妇女如何改变世界》
在性别平等日益受到重视的现代世界，女性依然面临着一些影响社会发展的重大挑战。作为当今时代最鼓舞人心、最具影响力的慈善家之一，梅琳达．盖茨分享了她在全球各地邂逅的杰出女性如何战胜各种艰难险阻的励志故事，并且从中总结了一些发人深省的重要经验和体会。本书完美诠释了故事的力量和改变的意义，充分证明了只有提升女性，整个社会才能变得更加美好这一深刻道理。
作者：我希望人们能够看到相互帮助、共同发展的途径。发动机正在点燃，大地正在震动，我们的力量正在提升。如今，我们拥有前所未有的知识、能量和道德观来改变历史的进程。

Tracey Bashkoff《希尔玛．阿夫．克林特： 面向未来的绘画》
瑞典女画家希尔玛．阿夫．克林特的超前抽象艺术画作，比一些公认的抽象主义先驱的作品还要更早出现。她善于利用各种不同图形创作出大量色彩大胆、高冲击力的抽象画作，充分展现出她对艺术深奥玄妙、神秘莫测的独特理解。或许正因她知道自己的作品过于前卫，克林特立下遗嘱，她的毕生作品在她逝世（1944年）后的二十年内都不得公开展示。克林特首次大型个展《面向未来的绘画 》在美国古根海姆博物馆展出，为了配合这次展览，本画册深入剖析了克林特艺术作品的主题演变、在她人生中的意义，以及她对现代艺术的影响，一览无遗地向世人呈现了这位艺术家及其作品的思想内涵及精神力量。
作者：克林特的「作品」从一开始就毅然决然地突破传统表现手法的束缚、追求开创性的艺术风格。学院派的传统作画方式已不足以表达她希望在画布上展现的前卫思想和丰富内涵。

Susan Hockfield《生命机器时代： 生物学如何引领下一场科技革命》
随着全球人口迅猛激增，气候变化和新的极端天气的出现，加上医疗成本持续上升，全球各地正在面临着史无前例的巨大挑战。世界著名神经科学家Susan Hockfield认为，为了解决这些难题，新一代的科技进步将在很大程度上取决于生物学的发展。从仿生义肢到计算机工程农业，生物学技术不断改革创新，为我们描绘了一个充满生机和希望的未来。
作者：我们尚不清楚决定农作物所有复杂性状的基因。但随着生物学和工程学在农业领域逐渐实现强大的融合，我们快将可以解开这个谜团……借助科技的力量，为地球上逾95亿人口提供可负担、富有营养的食物。

David Epstein《范围： 为什么多面手能够在专业领域获胜》
人们通常认为，许多体育、音乐、艺术和科学方面的特长需要从小专门培养。然而，David Epstein的研究彻底颠覆了这个理论。在本书中，他分享了多面手在各个年龄段均能取得成功的秘诀。他的研究证明，何时起步并不是最重要的一环，不畏失败、百折不挠往往才是保持灵活、坚定决心并最终实现成功的关键要素。作者为读者提供的建议是：「克服落后感」。David Epstein对体育、科学和科技等多个领域均有深入研究，他的建议无疑具有很高的参考价值。
作者：尝试并非灵丹妙药，但它具有普遍性和自身的优势，容忍失败不能只是空口白话。突破是形形色色、千差万别的。

单伟建《走出戈壁： 我在中国和美国的故事》
正当中国和美国这两个举足轻重的世界超级强国展开复杂微妙、紧张激烈的经济对决的关键时刻，单伟建以他的传奇经历为我们打开了一扇认知中美两国历史及双方当前关系的双向窗口。在本书中，单伟建讲述了他如何历经文革年代的巨大痛苦和磨砺、最终通过自己的努力奋斗实现美国梦的励志故事。这个故事以深刻的洞察力和细腻的笔触娓娓道来，为读者提供了一个考察中美两国当前局势和未来发展的独特视角。
作者：1979年，应时任美国总统卡特的邀请，邓小平赴美进行了为期9天的访问。此事对我的人生产生了巨大影响，尽管我当时并没有意识到这一点。这次访问不仅为中国的对外开放铺路，同时还为中国人赴海外留学创造了条件。

這正是灌輸孩子更多財商知識和傳遞家庭價值觀的一個大好良機。分享

望子成龍乃天下父母的心願。

「不論家庭貧富，如何支付及是否支付學費開支總會在不同場合及時間成為一家人討論的話題。」摩根大通私人銀行駐佛羅里達州的理財策略師Marc E. Seaverson說道。

然而，儘管大多數父母都對子女的教育及相關費用籌劃有着明確的預期，但許多人都盡量避免跟子女探討這個話題，甚至將之列為禁忌。

「過去，父母都是直接儲蓄或支付孩子的學費，孩子對於學費多少及來源幾乎是一無所知。」摩根大通私人銀行格林威治辦事處的理財顧問Victoria F. Bolton說道。

不過，據我們的顧問反映，這種情況已經有所改變。「我發現有很多客戶都想讓他們的孩子了解甚至親身參與。」Bolton說，「此舉措為孩子上了寶貴的一課，讓他們學習財商技巧和家庭要務。」

不過，父母首先要明確自己的目標。

• 包攬子女從學前班到博士生畢業的一切所需費用?
• 父母只支付學費，生活花銷由子女自行承擔?
• 讓孩子為修讀大學本科或者研究生課程申請助學貸款?
• 支付大學的一切所需費用，但要求孩子在畢業後立刻自力更生?
• 補貼他們的生活所需開支一段指定時間？或是直到永遠?

專家意見認為，無論選擇哪種方法，都沒有對錯之分。不論您只是希望讓孩子了解教育所需費用，還是要讓他們承擔部分開銷，您的摩根大通顧問都可以幫助您制定並實施最適合您家庭需要的方案。

第二步至關重要：確保您的孩子了解您的期望，並且明白他們作出選擇的後果。父母可以提出一些看法，例如指出一個普通英文專科學生與商科專科學生大學畢業後的薪酬差別，然後探討這些差異帶來的影響，例如在租金昂貴的市中心租房。

儘管每個家庭需要討論的課題各不相同，但是我們的顧問認為在一些引導的原則上存在一定共識，比如：

1. 共同期望——並且幫助您的孩子做好準備以實現這些期望。

摩根大通私人銀行達拉斯辦事處的理財策略師Amanda Lott看到許多父母，身為企業家和白手興家的商業人士，都希望子女將來能夠自力更生。

她說，這種想法很好，但孩子不會突然一覺醒來就懂得如何理財或進行長期儲蓄。因此，對他們理財能力的教育需要趁早開始。

「我們明白供孩子讀大學是一筆龐大的開銷，因此我們鼓勵客戶從小就向孩子教育儲蓄的重要性。」Lott說。如果您希望獲得更具體的建議，請向您的摩根大通顧問索取一份我們的《子女財富教育》指南。這份指南詳盡地介紹了適合各個年齡段孩子的教育活動，包括從小豬儲蓄罐到投資帳戶等等。 

即使您在孩子三歲時就開始教導他們如何儲蓄，但這也不意味着您應該馬上與他們討論長期理財計劃。把握時機至關重要。許多顧問建議家長等到孩子入讀高中時才開始與他們討論有關高中教育費用支付問題，因為這個年齡段的子女思想開始普遍成熟，能夠思考長期人生規劃；而且開始思考並關心自己的學業和未來。

2. 縱觀全局地討論教育費用。

事實上，美國的大學費用十分昂貴，而且學費每年增長6%，增速甚至比通脹更快。Seaverson表示，美國公立大學的平均開銷，包括學費、食宿以及其他費用，普遍估計高達每年21,000美元。

美國私立學校所需費用每年將近49,000美元。按當前的增長率計算，現在出生的孩子未來入讀私立大學可能需要花費五十多萬美元。

別忘了，這些費用還只是平均水平。某些私立大學每年的花銷可能還要多出幾萬美元。

 「當孩子們開始選擇大學，或許會說「我要去這所大學」的時候，就是家長開始跟他們討論教育開支的最佳時機，」Seaverson說，「當學生開始搜集常規資訊，比如一所大學有多少學生或者提供哪些學位課程，家長也可以鼓勵他們了解上大學所需費用以及這些費用的明細。」

3. 決定您是否想要提出指導原則或規則。

父母有很多方法去實現他們的願景。有些家長或會要求子女匯報大學成績，甚至要求他們達到特定的GPA才會全額支付教育費用。另外，有些家長可能會要求孩子修讀某些大學畢業後就業前景更好的專業，比如工程專業。

不過，我們的顧問建議父母做出過於死板的規定前一定要三思。

「據我觀察，父母明確嚴格地命令年輕的成年子女極少能夠發揮作用，」Amanda Lott警告說，「讓成年子女擁有自主權非常重要。對父母來說，更好的做法是確保孩子們理解自己作出的選擇確實會產生一定的影響和後果——而且後果有好也有壞。」

4. 討論大局。

最後，我們的顧問表示，圍繞教育的話題和討論其實是加強孩子家庭價值觀的核心。

父母可以利用大學學費這個話題，引導孩子與他們開展有關擁有當前生活方式所需開銷等討論。Seaverson說：「這是父母與子女共同就雙方期望和價值觀進行協作溝通的大好機會，進而可以把相關話題擴展到慈善和生活方式等其他領域。」

我們可以幫助您達成目標。

您的摩根大通顧問可以幫助您評估您的教育經費籌劃方案，並就如何與孩子展開基於目標的討論提供一些專業見解。

This conversation can be a great opportunity to teach your child more about finances—and your family valuesShare

It is a truth, universally acknowledged, that the minds of parents will turn to educating their children.

“Regardless of wealth level, in some form or fashion the discussion on how or whether to fund education always comes up,” says Marc E. Seaverson, a Florida-based Wealth Strategist with the Private Bank. 

Yet while most parents have baked-in expectations about education and funding, many parents find discussing costs with children to be uncomfortable, even taboo. 

“Historically, parents have saved or paid directly, and children have little knowledge of what the expenses are and the strategies employed to get there,” says Victoria F. Bolton, a Wealth Advisor in our Greenwich office. 

But that has been changing, our advisors say. “I am seeing a lot more clients wanting their children to be aware, even to have skin in the game,” says Bolton, “and that creates a real opportunity” to teach children about key financial issues as well as your family’s priorities.   

First step, though, is for the parents to be clear about their intentions. So, what do you want to do?  

• Pay for a whole ride from pre-K through Ph.D.?
• Pay tuition costs, but ask your children to contribute to their living expenses? 
• Have your children take out loans for college? For graduate school?  
• Pay for college, but expect the children to be self-supporting immediately after college?
• Subsidize their lifestyles for some period of time? Forever more? 

Any choice is fine, experts say, and your J.P. Morgan advisor can help you develop and implement whatever approach suits your family best—whether it is simply making your children aware of costs or having them contribute to some degree. 

The important part is the second step: making sure your children understand your expectations and the consequences of their choices. Parents can help with perspective, pointing out, for example, how much an average English major makes after college versus a business major, and then discussing what that means for, say, rent in a costly urban center. 

While every family will need to have a different conversation, our advisors agree on some common principles to guide discussions, namely:

1. Share expectations—and help prepare your children to meet them.

As a Wealth Strategist based in our Dallas office, Amanda Lott sees a lot of parents who are entrepreneurs and self-made business people and who are clear that they want their kids to be self-sufficient someday.

That’s great, she says, but children don’t wake up one morning suddenly knowing how to manage a budget or save for the long term. The sooner you start teaching them this financial capability, the better.

“Paying for college is a big expense. Understanding that, we encourage clients to begin talking to their children about the importance of saving from a very early age,” Lott says. If you are looking for more concrete advice, ask your J.P. Morgan advisor for a copy of our guide Teaching children about wealth; it offers detailed age-appropriate activities, from piggy banks to investment accounts. 

Even if you can start teaching children as young as three years old how to save, that clearly doesn’t mean you should discuss long-term plans right away. Timing is important. Many advisors counsel waiting until the beginning of high school to start having conversations about the financing of children’s secondary education. That’s when they are generally developmentally mature enough to think long-range; it’s also when their awareness and desire for college will be taking shape.  

2. Discuss education costs in context.

Here are just the bare facts: College in the United States is already expensive, and tuition is growing at 6% a year, which is faster than inflation. Common estimates put the average cost for a public university in the United States, including tuition, room and board, and others fees, at just over $21,000 a year, says Seaverson.

U.S. private school is just under $49,000 per year. At today’s growth rate, a baby born today could be expected to pay north of half a million for a private college. 

Keep in mind that these are averages. The costs for some private universities can be tens of thousands more per year. 

“When children start to look at colleges and maybe say ‘Here is where I want to go,’ that is an amazing opportunity to start talking,” says Seaverson. “When students are gathering routine information, such as how many students go to a college or what degrees do they offer, they also can be encouraged to ask how much does it cost and how do those costs break down.”

3. Decide whether you want to offer guidelines or rules.

There are many ways parents can enforce their vision. Some parents may want to require their college-age children to report on grades and possibly to achieve a certain GPA to continue to receive full funding of their education. Others may require that a child major in something that creates higher likelihoods of post-university employment, such as engineering.

Yet, our advisors suggest that parents think twice before being overly prescriptive.

“Very rarely do I see it play out well when parents give iron-clad mandates to their young adult children,” warns Amanda Lott. “It is important that an adult child feel a sense of autonomy. Better is when parents make sure the children understand that their choices do have ramifications and consequences—both good and bad.”

4. Discuss the bigger picture.

In the end, say our advisors, the conversation around education is really about reinforcing your family values with your children.  

Tuition can be an easy way for parents to start talking to their children about what it takes financially to live as they do. Seaverson says: “Think of it as a great opportunity to build a collaborative communication about expectations and values that can spill over into other areas like philanthropy and lifestyle.”

We can help

Your J.P. Morgan advisor can help you assess your education funding options and offer insights into how to frame a goals-based conversation with your child.

这正是灌输孩子更多财商知识和传递家庭价值观的一个大好良机。分享

望子成龙乃天下父母的心愿。

「不论家庭贫富，如何支付及是否支付学费开支总会在不同场合及时间成为一家人讨论的话题。」摩根大通私人银行驻佛罗里达州的理财策略师Marc E. Seaverson说道。

然而，尽管大多数父母都对子女的教育及相关费用筹划有着明确的预期，但许多人都尽量避免跟子女探讨这个话题，甚至将之列为禁忌。

「过去，父母都是直接储蓄或支付孩子的学费，孩子对于学费多少及来源几乎是一无所知。」摩根大通私人银行格林威治办事处的理财顾问Victoria F. Bolton说道。

不过，据我们的顾问反映，这种情况已经有所改变。「我发现有很多客户都想让他们的孩子了解甚至亲身参与。」Bolton说，「此举措为孩子上了宝贵的一课，让他们学习财商技巧和家庭要务。」

不过，父母首先要明确自己的目標。

• 包揽子女从学前班到博士生毕业的一切所需费用?
• 父母只支付学费，生活花销由子女自行承担?
• 让孩子为修读大学本科或者研究生课程申请助学贷款?
• 支付大学的一切所需费用，但要求孩子在毕业后立刻自力更生?
•  补贴他们的生活所需开支一段指定时间？或是直到永远?

专家意见认为，无论选择哪种方法，都没有对错之分。不论您只是希望让孩子了解教育所需费用，还是要让他们承担部分开销，您的摩根大通顾问都可以帮助您制定并实施最适合您家庭需要的方案。

第二步至关重要：确保您的孩子了解您的期望，并且明白他们作出选择的后果。父母可以提出一些看法，例如指出一个普通英文专科学生与商科专科学生大学毕业后的薪酬差别，然后探讨这些差异带来的影响，比如在租金昂贵的市中心租房。

尽管每个家庭需要讨论的课题各不相同，但是我们的顾问认为在一些引导的原则上存在一定共识，比如：

1. 共享期望——并且帮助您的孩子做好准备以实现这些期望。

摩根大通私人银行达拉斯办事处的理财策略师Amanda Lott看到许多父母，身为企业家和白手起家的商业人士，都希望子女将来能够自力更生。

她说，这种想法很好，但孩子不会突然一觉醒来就懂得如何理财或进行长期储蓄。因此，对他们理财能力的教育需要趁早开始。

「我们明白供孩子读大学是一笔庞大的开销，因此我们鼓励客户從小就向孩子教育储蓄的重要性。」Lott说。如果您希望获得更具体的建议，请向您的摩根大通顾问索取一份我们的《子女财富教育》指南。这份指南详尽地介绍了适合各个年龄段孩子的教育活动，包括从小猪储蓄罐到投资账户等等。 

即使您在孩子三岁时就开始教导他们如何储蓄，但这也不意味着您应该马上与他们讨论长期理财计划。把握时机至关重要。许多顾问建议家长等到孩子入读高中时才开始与他们讨论有关高中教育费用支付问题，因为这个年龄段的子女思想开始普遍成熟，能够思考长期人生规划；而且开始思考并关心自己的学业和未来。

2. 纵观全局地讨论教育费用。

事实上，美国的大学费用十分昂贵，而且学费每年增长6%，增速甚至比通胀更快。Seaverson表示，美国公立大学的平均开销，包括学费、食宿以及其他费用，普遍估计高达每年21,000美元。

美国私立学校所需费用每年将近49,000美元。按当前的增长率计算，现在出生的孩子未来入读私立大学可能需要花费五十多万美元。

别忘了，这些费用还只是平均水平。某些私立大学每年的花销可能还要多出几万美元。

 「当孩子们开始选择大学，或许会说「我要去这所大学」的时候，就是家长开始跟他们讨论教育开支的最佳时机，」Seaverson说，「当学生开始搜集常规信息，比如一所大学有多少学生或者提供哪些学位课程，家长也可以鼓励他们了解上大学所需费用以及这些费用的明细。」

3. 决定您是否想要提出指导原则或规则。

父母有很多方法去实现他们的愿景。有些家长或会要求子女汇报大学成绩，甚至要求他们达到特定的GPA才会全额支付教育费用。另外，有些家长可能会要求孩子修读某些大学毕业后就业前景更好的专业，比如工程专业。

不过，我们的顾问建议父母做出过于死板的规定前一定要三思。

「据我观察，父母明确严格地命令年轻的成年子女极少能够发挥作用，」Amanda Lott警告说，「让成年子女拥有自主权非常重要。对父母来说，更好的做法是确保孩子们理解自己作出的选择确实会产生一定的影响和后果——而且后果有好也有坏。」

4. 讨论大局。

最后，我们的顾问表示，围绕教育的话题和讨论其实是加强孩子家庭价值观的核心。

父母可以利用大学学费这个话题，引导孩子与他们开展有关拥有当前生活方式所需开销等讨论。Seaverson说：「这是父母与子女共同就双方期望和价值观进行协作沟通的大好机会，进而可以把相关话题扩展到慈善和生活方式等其他领域。」

我们可以帮助您达成目标。

您的摩根大通顾问可以帮助您评估您的教育经费筹划方案，并就如何与孩子展开基于目标的讨论提供一些专业见解。

En ocasiones, los niños pueden hacer las preguntas más difíciles acerca del patrimonio. Otras veces no preguntan nada. De una u otra forma van a encontrar las respuestas. Para encaminarlos por la senda correcta debemos ser los padres y guardianes quienes forjen la comprensión de la riqueza en nuestros hijos. El reto es cómo hacerlo bien. 

Aquí compartimos una historia de un cliente cuyo hijo hizo una pregunta que su padre no sabía bien cómo responder. Luego presentamos el comentario especializado de Michael Liersch, psicólogo cognitivo y Director de Asesoramiento y Estrategia Basados de J.P. Morgan.

Historia de un cliente

Una mañana de camino a la escuela, mi hijo de 10 años me preguntó: “Papi, ¿nosotros somos ricos?” Su hermana melliza se interesó y esperó mi respuesta junto con su hermano.

Sorprendido, les respondí: “Esa es una muy buena pregunta”.

“Estamos bien”, les expliqué. “Tenemos suficiente dinero para vivir en una casa linda, enviarlos a excelentes escuelas, hacer actividades divertidas y viajar juntos. Siempre tenemos comida y otras cosas. Pero a pesar de que tenemos dinero, queremos estar seguros de tomar buenas decisiones sobre lo que gastamos, porque mamá y papá trabajan muy duro para ganar ese dinero”.

“¿Tiene sentido?” Les pregunté.

La respuesta fue rápida y al grano. “Sí”, dijo mi hijo, y pasó a su próxima pregunta: “¿Volveremos a Florida este invierno?”.

La conversación se concentró inmediatamente en las próximas vacaciones de invierno.

Me pregunto si mi respuesta improvisada fue suficientemente buena. Sobre todo, quería asegurarme de que mis hijos supieran que están seguros y hacerles entender que mi esposa y yo estamos contentos con el hecho de trabajar para ganar lo que tenemos.

Comentario especializado

Esta no es una pregunta sorprendente, sino una muy común que hacen los estudiantes curiosos. Muchos se la preguntan aunque no la verbalicen.

Conscientes de los demás

A medida que los niños se vuelven más conscientes de los demás y buscan la aceptación del grupo entre sus pares, naturalmente quieren comprender dónde encajan—tratan de encontrar su lugar.

En esta historia, la respuesta de los padres es positiva porque los describe a ambos como generadores de ingresos y responsables de tomar decisiones conjuntas. Su respuesta también parece ser efectiva tanto para aportar tranquilidad —aliviando potenciales miedos existenciales— como para enfatizar la toma fundamentada de decisiones sobre las opciones financieras.

La respuesta “correcta”

En el futuro, el padre no tiene que sentirse presionado para dar inmediatamente la respuesta correcta o para siquiera responder a las preguntas importantes. Su primera respuesta podría ser una indagación del tipo: “¡Qué interesante!, ¿por qué lo preguntas?”. Responder a una pregunta con otra sirve no solo para que los padres ganen tiempo y puedan elaborar buenas respuestas, sino que también podrían obtener información muy valiosa sobre el estado mental del niño. ¿Se trata de una reacción del niño a la charla ociosa en el patio de la escuela acerca de quién tiene cuánto? O bien, por algún motivo, al niño le preocupa tener suficiente. Y si es así, ¿por qué?

Sobre todo, puede sentirse reconfortado al saber que una respuesta en un momento particular, sin importar cómo la haya dicho, no define la comprensión de sus hijos. Su comprensión de los asuntos de dinero se irá creando acumulativamente con el tiempo mediante señales verbales y no verbales.

Los clientes siempre solicitan orientación de los asesores de J.P. Morgan sobre cómo ayudar a sus hijos a desarrollar habilidades que les permitan afrontar el complejo mundo financiero. En nuestra serie Enseñar a sus hijos sobre la riqueza, hemos recogido las mejores prácticas de nuestro equipo global de asesores y de una educadora financiera líder, Susan Doty, Presidenta de la Asociación Nacional de Educadores Económicos, para ayudar a los padres, a los abuelos y a otros familiares involucrados en la capacitación de los hijos, de 3 a 22 años, en asuntos de dinero.  

Para obtener más información sobre cómo enseñar a los hijos sobre el patrimonio, comuníquese con sus asesores de J.P. Morgan. Están disponibles para usted y su familia en todo lo relacionado con sus necesidades financieras.

在教導孩子理財之道時，父母面對子女的提問有時候會感到非常棘手，有些子女對理財方面也許根本興趣不大。不論是屬於哪一種孩子，他們最終都會找到答案。為了幫助子女走上正確的人生道路，父母都希望能夠從小培養並協助子女建立令他們受用終身的財富觀。但是，如何才能樹立正確及有效的財富觀?

以下是我們一位客戶的親身經歷。他的孩子突然向他提出了一個他不知如何應對的問題。摩根大通目標為本理財諮詢及策略部主管兼認知心理學家Michael Liersch隨後將對此給予專業點評和指導。

客戶的故事
 

在送孩子上學的途中，我通常會和他們進行一些有趣的深層次討論。一天早上，我10歲的兒子問我：「爸爸，我們家富有嗎?」他的雙胞胎妹妹和他一起興致勃勃地等待着我的答案。

面對這個突如其來的提問，我猝不及防地回答：「這是一個很好的問題。」

然後，我盡力地向他們解釋：「我們的家庭條件還不錯。我們可以住好的房子，送你們上好學校、一起旅行，以及做一些我們喜歡的事情。我們衣食無憂。不過，雖然我們擁有一些財富，但因為這些財富都是爸爸媽媽努力工作換來的，所以我們要用得其所。」

我問孩子：「你們覺得爸爸說的有道理嗎?」

他們迅即回答：「是的。」兒子馬上又提出下一個問題：「我們今年冬天是不是回到佛羅里達?」

我們的討論話題便立即轉到快將到來的寒假。

我不知道自己憑直覺做出的回答是否妥當。我主要是想確保他們有安全感，讓他們知道我和妻子願意通過努力工作來獲得財富。

等待專家的評判，祝我們好運。

專家點評
 

這個問題並不令人感到意外。求知欲旺盛的孩子經常會提出或在內心思考這樣的問題。

了解他人
 

隨着孩子對他人的了解逐漸加深並開始尋求同輩群體的接納，他們很自然地希望了解和尋找自己在群體中的適當位置。這正是這個年紀的孩子應有的正常想法。

在本案例中，這位父親的回應積極而正面。他表達了父母雙方作為收入創造者和共同決策者所發揮的作用。他的回答不僅有助於寬慰和消除孩子內心可能隱藏着的擔憂，同時還強調了作出財務決策時應有的謹慎態度。

「正確」答案
 

面對孩子未來可能提出的重大問題，父親不必要求自己立即提供正確的答案，甚至無需給出答案。他首先可以通過詢問的方式回應，例如：「這個問題很有趣，為什麼問這個?」這不僅能夠讓父母有更多的時間來思考恰當的答案，同時還有助於父母更好地了解子女的內心世界。孩子是否曾在學校和別人聊起關於家庭財富的問題?還是出於某些原因產生了對家庭財富是否足夠的擔憂?背後的具體原因是什麼?

最重要的是，父母其實無需擔心自己在某個時刻作出的回應會給孩子的財富觀造成決定性的影響。財富觀的形成不是一朝一夕的事情，是父母從小言傳身教、日積月累的結果。

長期以來，很多客戶向摩根大通顧問諮詢如何培養子女解決複雜財富管理問題的技能。為此，我們推出了「如何培養子女的理財智慧與技能」系列文章，旨在分享我們的全球顧問團隊和財務教育專家兼美國全國經濟教育家協會主席Susan Doty多年來積累的豐富知識和深厚的經驗，以此幫助家長和家族成員培養孩子從3歲到22歲等不同階段的理財智慧和技能。

如需了解更多有關如何培養孩子的理財智慧與技能的資訊，請聯繫您的摩根大通顧問。我們的顧問隨時樂意幫助您和您的家族解決各種理財需求。

在教导孩子理财之道时，父母面对子女的提问有时候会感到非常棘手，有些子女对理财方面也许根本兴趣不大。不论是属于哪一种孩子，他们最终都会找到答案。为了帮助子女走上正确的人生道路，父母都希望能够从小培养并协助子女建立令他们受用终身的财富观。但是，如何才能树立正确及有效的财富观?

以下是我们一位客户的亲身经历。他的孩子突然向他提出了一个他不知如何应对的问题。摩根大通目标为本理财咨询及策略部主管兼认知心理学家Michael Liersch随后将对此给予专业点评和指导。

客户的故事
 

在送孩子上学的途中，我通常会和他们进行一些有趣的深层次讨论。一天早上，我10岁的儿子问我：「爸爸，我们家富有吗?」他的双胞胎妹妹和他一起兴致勃勃地等待着我的答案。

面对这个突如其来的提问，我猝不及防地回答：「这是一个很好的问题。」

然后，我尽力地向他们解释：「我们的家庭条件还不错。我们可以住好的房子，送你们上好学校、一起旅行，以及做一些我们喜欢的事情。我们衣食无忧。不过，虽然我们拥有一些财富，但因为这些财富都是爸爸妈妈努力工作换来的，所以我们要用得其所。」

我问孩子：「你们觉得爸爸说的有道理吗?」

他们迅即回答：「是的。」儿子马上又提出下一个问题：「我们今年冬天是不是回到弗罗里达?」

我们的讨论话题便立即转到快将到来的寒假。

我不知道自己凭直觉做出的回答是否妥当。我主要是想确保他们有安全感，让他们知道我和妻子愿意通过努力工作来获得财富。

等待专家的评判，祝我们好运。

专家点评
 

这个问题并不令人感到意外。求知欲旺盛的孩子经常会提出或在内心思考这样的问题。

了解他人
 

随着孩子对他人的了解逐渐加深并开始寻求同辈群体的接纳，他们很自然地希望了解和寻找自己在群体中的适当位置。这正是这个年纪的孩子应有的正常想法。

在本案例中，这位父亲的回应积极而正面。他表达了父母双方作为收入创造者和共同决策者所发挥的作用。他的回答不仅有助于宽慰和消除孩子内心可能隐藏着的担忧，同时还强调了作出财务决策时应有的谨慎态度。

「正确」答案
 

面对孩子未来可能提出的重大问题，父亲不必要求自己立即提供正确的答案，甚至无需给出答案。他首先可以通过询问的方式回应，例如：「这个问题很有趣，为什么问这个?」这不仅能够让父母有更多的时间来思考恰当的答案，同时还有助于父母更好地了解子女的内心世界。孩子是否曾在学校和别人聊起关于家庭财富的问题?还是出于某些原因产生了对家庭财富是否足够的担忧?背后的具体原因是什么?

最重要的是，父母其实无需担心自己在某个时刻作出的回应会给孩子的财富观造成决定性的影响。财富观的形成不是一朝一夕的事情，是父母从小言传身教、日积月累的结果。

长期以来，很多客户向摩根大通顾问咨询如何培养子女解决复杂财富管理问题的技能。为此，我们推出了「如何培养子女的理财智慧与技能」系列文章，旨在分享我们的全球顾问团队和财务教育专家兼美国全国经济教育家协会主席Susan Doty多年来积累的丰富知识和深厚的经验，以此帮助家长和家族成员培养孩子从3岁到22岁等不同阶段的理财智慧和技能。

如需了解更多有关如何培养孩子的理财智慧与技能的资讯，请联系您的摩根大通顾问。我们的顾问随时乐意帮助您和您的家族解决各种理财需求。