分类： 银行网讯

伦敦10月7日 – 一个由中央银行家领导的全球委员会为负利率和大规模资产购买等因应危机的举措做出辩护，称这些举措利大于弊。

全球金融体系委员会(CGFS)这份研究报告是宽泛分析，但可能在欧洲引起相当大的关注。因采用这些举措，欧洲央行面临着越来越高的批评声音。

除了负利率以及大规模购债，各家央行还向经济注入非常廉价的资金，压低了借款成本，但也给储户和银行利润率带来压力。

“总体而言，非常规货币政策工具帮助各央行应对危机引发的情况以及随之而来的经济滑坡，”CGFS的主席、澳洲央行总裁洛威称。

洛威还称，出现了诸如民间部门去杠杆动力降低以及危机影响蔓延至其他国家等副作用，但被认为没有“大到足以逆转非常规货币政策工具的好处”。

该报告是由纽约联储官员波特(Simon M. Potter)以及欧洲央行总裁德拉吉的前顾问Frank Smets牵头的工作组准备的。

上个月，超过三分之一的欧洲央行政策制定者反对德拉吉重启资产购买计划； 六名前欧洲央行决策者周五抨击德拉吉担任总裁期间的政策不成功，可能为下次危机埋下隐患。

国际清算银行(BIS)的CGFS报告表示，“迄今(非常规举措的)副作用一直受控，未让干预的整体效应打折扣。”

在经济滑坡，海外的溢出效应波及小型的开放经济体，或者金融市场波动损及货币政策传导等情况下，未来也可能需要再次采用这些非常规举措。

有许多趋势也指向利率更常触及“有效下限”，即无法再进一步下调的水准。这将再次需要采用非常规工具。

“当然，大多数采用非常规货币政策工具的央行都还没有解除这些工具，因为有必要保持刺激。这意味着只能在后面的阶段对非常规货币政策工具效果做出完整评估。”

一份平行报告审视了为抵御危机而进行的央行资产负债表大规模扩张，并列出了使用非常规措施“最佳实践”的九点清单。

其中包括根据整体资产规模逐步购买资产，避免债券不足的计划，将购买的债券重新出借，在实施和解除措施时采取可预测的行动，并保持灵活性。

越通社河内——同世界多个国家一样，越南已经和正在明确推动经济朝着迅速、可持续及绿色的方向增长这一目标。然而，由于该领域需要各种长期的巨额资本，因此除了银行体系之外，寻求与合作以获得外部伙伴的资金来源需要得到鼓励的。

银行力推提供资金

目前，银行信贷资金被评价为支柱——绿色项目，落实绿色增长国家战略，朝着可持续发展方向进行经济结构重组等活动的主要资助来源，资金总额约为805万亿越盾，相当于越南绿色增长所需资金的70%。以一方面确保为生产经营活动供应充足资金，一方面为落实至2020年绿色增长国家战略拨出一定的资金等任务，越南国家银行已颁布多份文件，要求各信用机构促进为具有有关环保的明显目标的项目提供绿色贷款，同时鼓励善待环境的营商活动。

近期，多家银行加强向各清洁能源项目，太阳能发电项目提供资金。例如，越南农业与农村发展银行（Agribank）积极参加由世界银行和各金融组织资助的多个环保项目，如提升农产品质量与安全水平，发展沼气计划，致力于可持续发展的沿海资源。与此同时，Agribank已通过与国内各金融组织签署协议，主动提供贷款，为绿色信贷项目提供资金。最典型的是，Agribank与越南开发银行（VDB）签署协议，共同向承天顺化省丰田TTC太阳能发电厂提供资助。2018年，Agribank和越南中部电力工总公司签署了有关在庆和省投资建设中部电力太阳能发电厂的信贷合同，投资总额为1.373万亿越盾。其中，Agribank提供的贷款占税前总投资额的58.5%（相当于7350亿越盾）。

不仅Agribank，越南先锋股份商贸银行（TPBank）早就认出绿色信贷是全球金融银行的必然方向。近期，该银行已同全球气候合作基金（GCPF）签署长期合同。据此，三年内，全球气候合作基金将向该银行提供价值为2000万美元的绿色贷款。该合同的签署为具有能源节约、减少二氧化碳排放及善待社会环境的生产经营项目和方案获得利率低的资金来源供更多机会。全球气候合作基金绿色贷款部副主任迪亚兹•福米多尼重申：“我们看到越南有关绿色信贷的潜力越来越大。我相信，未来两到三年，全球气候合作基金对越南提供的绿色资本将增加5700万至8000万美元。”

扩大资本供应源

银行贷款正在大力流入绿色项目。但是，部分银行领导称，该领域的贷款尚未达到所预期的效果，因为投资活动需要投资回收期长，投资成本大，市场风险高，因此潜在坏账危机。由此，为了推动绿色贷款可持续增长并将至2020年绿色增长国家战略落到实处，除了银行方面的分担、紧密且积极配合之外，还需要各部委、单位及地方的配合，旨在早日解决困难和障碍。

越南先锋股份商贸银行行长阮兴表示，筹集外部中期和长期资本流入绿色贷款不是很难，但并不容易，因为一个信用机构要满足必要的标准和承诺。他说：“对于越南先锋股份商贸银行，作为获得穆迪高评级的信用机构，我们已恪守各项标准和惯例，跻身被国家银行公认为满足《巴塞尔新资本协议》(Basel II)的银行名单之一。近期，本行也同外国伙伴建立关系，从国际市场筹集大量资本。上述因素帮助银行在筹集来自各国际组织的资本中获得便利条件。”

与此同时，迪亚兹•福米多尼先生认为，越南的增长和潜力是一个重要因素，但除此之外，对于全球气候合作基金而言，资本根据所既定目标朝着正确方向流入各项目和客户也非常重要。因此，选择值得信赖的伙伴来部署贷款活动一直是全球气候合作基金的核心问题。

此外，在部署绿色贷款过程中，银行体系正在面对部分困难。因此，未来，为了鼓励各信用机构乃至投资主积极参加各绿色项目，多个意见建议政府要有募集基金，为投资主在建设项目中提供援助。有关银行方面，Agribank领导代表也建议，国家银行不应该把提供给绿色且清洁项目的贷款纳入用于中长期贷款、再融资、再贴现优惠的短期资金使用率。此外，国家银行可考虑对银行筹集用于绿色贷款项目的资金减少存款准备金率。

越通社胡志明市——越南金融银行数字生态系统尽管近年来快速发展但仍存在许多问题并面临不少困难和障碍。越南信息技术和传媒研讨会（VIO）是各家企业、银行、国家管理机关等代表和专家就越南金融银行数字生态系统的发展机遇、挑战和发展措施进行讨论的重要平台。

这是胡志明市信息学协会7日在胡志明市举行题为“越南金融科技未来发展方向”的越南信息技术和传媒研讨会系列活动新闻发布会上公布的信息。

据胡志明市国家大学银行技术发展研究院的考察结果，目前，越南共有154家金融科技公司。然而，70%越南金融科技公司的投资资金来自日本、美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、英国、丹麦、法国、中国、新加坡和马来西亚等国家。其体现出越南金融科技公司主要占领各家传统银行的零售市场份额，与此同时，目前，社交借贷、电子钱包、银行卡付款和分期付款等活动在越南日常生活中较为发展。

新加坡金融科技学院首席执行官、新加坡数码商会顾问Lillian Koh表示，新加坡大部分工业活动深入应用信息技术，信息技术是新加坡提高竞争力的钥匙。目前，金融科技被视为重要创新因素。

胡志明市信息学协会同新加坡金融科技学院（FTA）、越南银行协会(VNBA)和胡志明市国家大学银行技术发展研究院将于10月30日至31日在胡志明市联合举行题为“越南金融科技未来发展方向”的越南信息技术和传媒研讨会系列活动。

胡志明市信息学协会秘书长武英俊表示，在本次研讨会期间，还举行包括金融科技的发展趋势和作用，其对经济体产生的影响，支付技术和服务的变化，金融科技市场的人工智能，金融科技和信息安全与保密，金融科技与创业，金融科技和人力资源等内容的6场专题讨论会和政策制定者、国家管理者和各家科技企业、银行代表的对话会。此外，还举行国内外银行、科技企业和投资基金会之间贸易促进活动。

Policy makers may take a realistic, attentive and responsible approach in the 2020 Budget due to limited fiscal space, a challenging external environment and an unsettled new administration. NST pix by Osman Adnan

KUALA LUMPUR: Policy makers may take a realistic, attentive and responsible approach in the 2020 Budget due to limited fiscal space, a challenging external environment and an unsettled new administration.

Kenanga Research said this was despite the government’s plan to continue implementing fiscal discipline via Medium-Term Fiscal Framework from 2019 to 2021.

The firm said the budget would likely not compromise on fiscal consolidation, implying a baseline fiscal deficit projection of 3.3 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) next year versus a deficit forecast of 3.5 per cent in 2019.

Due to be tabled in Parliament on October 11, the second edition of national budget under the Pakatan Harapan government will be an opportune platform for the government to reaffirm its policy stance.

Kenanga Research said the budget would also provide a clearer direction of long-term development plan as well as a fresh attempt to restore public confidence towards the administration.

“The government is also due to unveil a new comprehensive strategy to achieve shared prosperity by 2030, which will incorporate both the 12th and 13th Malaysia Plans (MPs).

“We foresee some of the measures and policies announced in the budget to incorporate the gist of the 12MP, which is premised along the vision of Shared Prosperity 2030,” it said today.

The vision encapsulates three development dimensions including economic empowerment, environmental sustainability and social re-engineering.

“These hover around the idea of tapping into new growth enablers in the era of Fourth Industrial Revolution, while ensuring all segments of the citizens are able to participate and prosper from the economic activities, in addition to simultaneously improve and focus on sustainability,” Kenanga Research added.

It said the 12MP would prioritise regional development particularly in six seemingly left-behind states namely Sabah, Sarawak, Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

While the external factors would weigh on Malaysia’s growth prospect, Kenanga Research said the budget would partially be mitigated by domestic activities, in particular the revived mega infrastructure projects. This would provide the much needed multiplier factor to boost domestic demand.

“Assuming that the government has factored both external and domestic concerns, we reckon the official GDP forecast for 2020 would be biased on the low side between 4.0 per cent and 4.5 per cent compared to this year’s forecast of 4.3 per cent to 4.8 per cent, which would likely be adjusted.”

Kenanga Research said the budget would track the pervasiveness of inequality in an economy, which could be viewed in several angles among others, disparities across income groups and across states.

“Malaysia has experienced a rising disparity across income groups, with widening gaps between median monthly household income of T20 (2016: RM10,148; 2012: RM7,944), M40 (2016: RM3,275; 2012: RM2,520) and Malaysia’s average (2016: R2,228; 2012: RM1,774) relative to the B40.”

The disparities could give rise to variation in educational attainment, employability and business opportunity, it added.

(FILES) This file photo taken on May 5, 2019 shows constructions works on the Dubai Marina Harbour. – Dubai, a city defined by its glittering towers and man-made islands, is stuck in a five-year property downturn with no end in sight, drawing warnings of an industry reckoning that will see weaker players fail.

DUBAI: With the highest tower in the world, grand commercial centres and artificial islands, Dubai projects an image of prosperity, even as the city-state races to court investors to bolster a flagging economy.

Despite boasting the most diverse economy in the Gulf region, the emirate’s vital property, tourism and trade sectors have weakened in recent years.

Real estate deals plunged 21.5 per cent to $60.7 billion (US$1.00 = RM4.18) in 2018, according to government data, while the number of tourists visiting Dubai remained stagnant at around 16 million in the past two years.

“Dubai’s economic growth has been lacklustre… following a weak real estate market and subdued consumer spending,” M.R. Raghu, head of research at Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz), told AFP.

The emirate’s economy grew by just 1.94 per cent last year – almost half of its 2017 growth and just a notch above the 1.9 per cent in 2010, when Dubai was still recovering from a recession due to the global financial crisis and its own debt problems.

But Raed Safadi, chief economic advisor to Dubai Economy, the government agency responsible for promoting development, downplayed reports about the slowdown.

“We are still growing. Yes, it is not at 4.5 per cent – the average between 2012 and 2016 – but given all the conditions around the world, it is healthy,” Safadi told AFP.

He expects growth to pick up to 2.1 per cent in 2019 and rebound to as high as 3.8 per cent next year.

This prediction relies heavily on the Expo 2020 global trade fair that Dubai hopes will deliver an economic windfall and some 300,000 new jobs.

Safadi said Expo 2020 is expected to add some US$35 billion to the economy over the subsequent decade.

But with the region’s most open market, Dubai is exposed to global trade tensions, regional slowdown and the economic downturn in Iran under tough US sanctions, according to the London-based Capital Economics.

“All of this will weigh on Dubai’s key logistics, tourism and manufacturing sectors,” said James Swanston, an economist at Capital Economics.

To preserve Dubai’s image as an economic hub, the city-state has implemented a raft of incentives.

Months ago, the government started granting permanent residencies to big investors and allowed foreigners to have full ownership of businesses throughout the emirate, including outside free zones.

Authorities also began offering long-term visas for foreign investors, students and talent, while revising fees on hundreds of services, freezing school fees and setting up a high-level committee to rebalance the property market.

With a population of 3.3 million – over 90 per cent of them expats – Dubai draws 70 per cent of its revenue from fees on various transactions and around 24 per cent from taxes and government company profits.

Just six per cent of its revenue comes from oil.

Fahad al-Gergawi, CEO of Dubai Foreign Direct Investment, a public body, said reports of the downturn were exaggerated.

“The economic slowdown is not new to Dubai… but certain media reports highlight particular issues to show that Dubai is struggling,” he told AFP on the sidelines of Dubai Investment Week held last week.

“We have passed through similar economic cycles in the past.”

Gergawi said Dubai has been among the top 10 cities in the world for attracting new investment in the past five years and among the top three cities for Foreign Direct Investment.

The government announced on Sunday that in the first half of 2019, the emirate received US$12.7 billion in FDI, an increase of 135 per cent from the same period last year, surpassing even the US$10.5 billion it received in 2018.

“In the medium term, spending related to hosting Dubai Expo 2020 and monetary easing measures would support growth. Furthermore, Dubai has been actively undertaking reform measures to boost the economy,” Raghu said.

But Dubai, one of seven Sheikhdoms that make up the United Arab Emirates, still faces high public debt of around $123 billion, or 110 percent of GDP, divided almost equally between the government and state-linked companies.

About two-thirds of the debt of state-linked companies will mature by the end of 2023.

But Swanston said a “total debt default” is unlikely as oil-rich Abu Dhabi, the wealthiest emirate in the federation, “would come to the rescue” as it did when Dubai defaulted on its debt in 2009. –

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s total trade in the first eight months of 2019 dropped 2.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to RM1.21 trillion from RM1.23 trillion recorded a year ago, according to the International Trade and Industry Ministry.

Malaysia’s exports during the period eased 0.4 per cent to RM650.81 billion from RM653.46 billion, while imports contracted 4.0 per cent to RM558.26 billion from RM581.56 billion previously.

Malaysia’s trade surplus from January to August 2019 increased 28.7 per cent to RM92.55 billion from RM71.90 billion.

In August, the country’s trade surplus surged 655.2 per cent to RM10.92 billion from RM1.45 billion recorded previously.

Exports slipped 0.8 per cent YoY to RM81.36 billion in August from RM81.98 billion, due to lower exports to Hong Kong, Australia, Taiwan, China, New Zealand, Korea and Asean.

Malaysia’s imports for August contracted 12.5 per cent to RM70.43 billion from RM80.54 billion previously.

Overall trade for August reduced 6.6 per cent YoY to RM151.79 billion from RM162.52 billion.

The ministry said exports of manufactured goods in August, which accounted for 84.4 per cent of Malaysia’s total exports, grew 0.1 per cent to RM68.64 billion.

“The expansion was contributed mainly by higher exports of manufactures of metal, transport equipment, iron and steel products, petroleum products, processed food as well as machinery, equipment and parts,” it said.

Exports of mining goods in August, which represented 7.4 per cent of the country’s total exports, went down 20.7 per cent to RM6.01 billion attributable to lower exports of crude petroleum registering lower volume and Average Unit Value (AUV).

Exports of agriculture goods rose 13 per cent to RM5.98 billion, buoyed by higher exports of palm oil and palm oil-based agriculture products.

Meanwhile, exports of palm oil registered an increase of 31.4 per cent to RM3.65 billion following higher volume.

KUALA LUMPUR: Khazanah Nasional Bhd expects to reduce its debt level by up to RM12 billion in the next three to five years via asset sales.

Economic Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali said the sovereign wealth fund was planning to pare down its debt to between RM35 billion and RM40 billion.

Last week, Khazanah had announced its current debt level stood at RM47 billion from RM55 billion through several assets sales.

He said Khazanah was identifying strategic assets to dispose, adding that the evaluation must be based on market performance and right timing.

Mohamed Azmin said the proceeds generated from the asset disposals would also be reinvestef into other asset classes.

“This (potential divestments) is not something unusual but it needs to get strategic evaluation based on the market condition, which in turn will create value for Khazanah assets.

“We want to make sure it will give a better return to Khazanah and subsequently better dividends to the government,” Azmin told reporters after presenting his keynote address at Khazanah Megatrends Forum 2019 here today.

Managing director Datuk Shahril Ridza Ridzuan said Khazanah’s debt reduction medium-term plan had been approved by the board to reach sustainable level of about RM40 billion.

“We are targeting about 3.5 times for our asset to debt cover as opposed to right now where we are just over 2.0 times. This provides more sustainable balance sheet for Khazanah in the long term,” he said, adding that while ensuring the debt was correctly positioned to support the asset and equities of Khazanah.

However, he said there was no specific sector that Khazanah wanted to divest as the fund has a diversed portfolio across many industries.

“We intend to lean a bit more towards technology and innovation. But we have a diversed investment portfolio for risk-management purposes,” he said.

Mohamed Azmin said the process of selling assets was a normal business deal not only for Khazanah but also the Employees Provident Fund and Permodalan Nasional Bhd.

“We must ensure the assets that we are going to sell will generate money and create a new fund for us (Khazanah) to reinvest into other asset and make more profits,” he added.

He said Khazanah had been selling over 100 assets, amounting to about RM65 billion in the last 10 years.

He said the government had been receiving dividends from Khazanah and certainly in the long run, it would help the government to pare down its debt if Khazanah can give better dividends.

“We must ensure that we create value from those assets. The value of our assetsb currently is about RM130 billion and the net balance sheet of Khazanah is much stronger than before,” he said.

Meanwhile, he said Khazanah is identifying strategic partners for Malaysia Airlines Bhd (MAB) after receiving some proposals from potential parties.

“We are accessing those proposals to identify the right partners for Malaysia Airlines.

“However, I am not in the position to give the details as the process (identifying partners) is still ongoing,” he said.

He said once Khazanah and MAB conclude the whole evaluation exercise, a proper announcement will be made.

委内瑞拉基于石油保障的数字货币“Petro”（石油币）近期进入了全球市场，试图稳定委内瑞拉因持续的政治危机和美国制裁的影响而脆弱不堪的经济。

当地媒体援引委内瑞拉官员的话称，作为加密数字货币，石油币将消除黑市及黑手党的威胁。

专家们认为，推出石油币的目标，是消除由国外推动的经济战所造成的不平衡，所指即对委内瑞拉实施的制裁。

委内瑞拉总统马杜罗在新闻发布会上表示，Petro石油币不同与其他的数字货币，因为它以石油及委内瑞拉矿业资源为支撑。

马杜罗还指出，石油币目前已经进入了全球最大的六家国际交易中心（没有具体点名），现在正争取国家层面的认可。

马杜罗强调，所有的委内瑞拉人都将获得石油币（没有限定日期）以进行国际购买，他还指出，石油币现在已经成为美元在房地产交易中的合法替代品。

根据该媒体的说法，一个单位的石油币相当于3600玻利瓦尔（当地货币），并将为商品、服务等价格提供定价参考，还将被视为国家的计算单位之一。

越南国家银行10月1日在河内举行2019年第三季度银行活动结果记者会。会议指出，9个月来，国家银行已根据既定目标灵活、主动、慎重调整和实施货币政策，稳定外汇市场。

截至9月24日，支付手段同比增长8.5%以上。国家银行也根据宏观经济和外币市场的演变调整利率；实施财政平衡，以采取合理的贷款利率，保障财政安全。

外币市场保持稳定、演变灵活、交易通畅。银行部门基本上满足生产经营活动的资金服务需求。

从现在到年底，国家银行将继续有效实施货币政策，配合实施各项财年和宏观经济政策，以控制通胀、维持宏观经济稳定、协助增长、稳定货币和外汇市场。

哈通社/努尔-苏丹/10月4日 – 阿拉木图成为2019年哈萨克斯坦不动产售价最高的城市。

据krisha.kz网统计显示，截至2019年9月，哈萨克斯坦全国范围内居民住宅销售价格排行榜上，阿拉木图市位居首位。

TOP5中还依次有努尔苏丹、阿特劳、奇姆肯特和彼得罗巴甫尔。

以个城市总体销量最好的40平米公寓的售价为例。

在阿拉木图，这样的公寓售价为1560万坚戈；

同等面积的公寓在首都努尔苏丹的售价是1330万坚戈；

在位居第三位的阿特劳，此类户型的售价是1000万坚戈；

在奇姆肯特的售价是950万坚戈；

在彼得罗巴甫尔，40平米面积的公寓售价是880万坚戈。

统计数据显示，面积40平米户型的公寓售价最低的城市市克孜勒奥尔达，在这里只需要540万坚戈即可买到该户型的公寓。

krisha.kz也公布了其他几座主要城市中，此类户型的平均价格，分别是：阿克托别——590万坚戈，塔拉兹——650万坚戈，塞梅——710万坚戈，巴甫洛达尔——730万坚戈。

以下几座城市中，近期不动产价格有所上涨：

塔勒德库尔干市——居民住宅售价每平米为193475坚戈，同比上涨2.3%；

乌斯卡曼市——居民住宅售价每平米为193475坚戈，同比上涨2%；

彼得罗巴甫尔——居民住宅售价每平米为219600坚戈，同比上涨1.9%；

奇姆肯特市——居民住宅售价每平米为238175坚戈，同比上涨1.8%。